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Two Guys That Have No Clue About Anything: Otherwise Known As Standard Wall Street News

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I like to review the Linkedin profile of these money reporter types. Their CVs are often more informative than words spoken.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Legacy of the Legendary Trader Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was an outstanding trader. The insights he shared with the world are invaluable. Josh Brown wrote a great article featured on www.ritholtz.com pointing out some of his great nuggets of wisdom as well as how he would react in this day and age with news outlets streaming 24/7:

There are those who would convince you that it is somehow smart or in your best interest to be manically switching your investments around, back and forth, long and short, on a daily basis. To pay attention to this kind of overstimulation is the height of madness, even for professional traders.

The most storied and important trader who ever lived, Jesse Livermore, would be tuning these daily buy and sell calls out were he alive and operating today. Because while he was a trader, he was not of the mindset that there was always some kind of action to be taking.

Jesse Livermore’s legacy is a bit of a double-edged sword…

On the one hand, he was the first to codify the ancient language of supply and demand that is every bit as relevant 100 years later as it was when he first relayed it to biographer Edwin Lefèvre. Livermore himself sums it up thusly: “I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”

On the other hand, Livermore’s undoing came at precisely the moments in which he ignored his own advice. After repeated admonitions about tipsters, for example, Jesse allowed a tip on cotton to lead to a massive loss which grew even larger as he sat on it – violating yet another of his own cardinal rules.

And of course, other than for a few moments of temporary triumph in the trading pits and bucket shops of the era, Jesse Livermore was not a happy man. “Things haven’t gone well with me,” he informed one of his many wives by handwritten note, before putting a bullet through his own head in the cloakroom of the Sherry-Netherland Hotel.

But he did leave behind a wealth of knowledge about the art of speculation. His exploits (and cautionary tales of woe) have educated, influenced and inspired every generation of trader since Reminiscences was first published in 1923.

In my opinion, some of the most useful bits of knowledge we get from the book concern Jesse’s discussion of timeframes and patience. Many traders, particularly rookies, approach the game with the idea that they’re supposed to be constantly doing something – in and out, with a trembling finger poised to click the mouse again and again. Consequently, they get on the treadmill of booking wins and losses without ever really moving the needle. They end up with tons of brokerage commissions and taxes to show for their efforts, but not much else.

Being a trader doesn’t mean one must always be executing a trade, just as being a house painter doesn’t mean that every surface needs an endless series of coats.

Many rookies are surprised to learn that Livermore, the idol of so many great traders, advocated a lower maintenance, higher patience approach as he matured. In his early days, Livermore was dependent on the short-term funding and scalping activity of the bucket shops. Once he graduated and had his own capital, he was able to lengthen position holding times and could even afford to do nothing for extended periods.

Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:

  • “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
  • “It takes time to make money.”
  • “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
  • “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
  • “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
  • “Buy right, sit tight.”
  • “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
  • “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

and finally, the most important thing: “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

Jesse was a trader but he knew the value of staying with positions and sometimes not trading at all. Once he began to follow tips from others or trade when he should have abstained, all of his progress had come undone, and with it, his sanity.

We are fortunate to be able to learn from his mistakes and to sidestep the errors that eventually cost him everything.

Jesse Livermore Books:

• How to Trade in Stocks (PDF)
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (PDF)

Recommended Trend Following Posts and Podcasts

Twenty Eight Years On Wall Street

Trend Following Wisdom of Jesse Livermore

Reminiscences of a Stockbroker

Bitcoin Trend Following

On Holding

Striving for Excellence


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Dave Ramsey, Rick Edelman & the Anal Probing of Investors

A reader writes:

Hey Mike. Davie [name] Here. You know Mike, there is something that I keep hearing from two of the most prominent financial advisers in the country and it drives me crazy every time I hear it. I can’t understand how two men who are obvious very intelligent and gifted can be so ignorant of the truth. The two men are Dave Ramsey, and Rick Edelman. I have heard them both on more than one occasion in which they were promoting their buy and hold philosophies that there are no “market timers in the forbes 400 wealthiest list”. Then they go on they point out that “however, the number 2 guy on the list, Warren Buffet is a long term buy and hold guy”. This just drives me crazy Mike because it simply isn’t true and two men who are “experts” in money ought to know better. Sure there is one guy who claims to be a buy and holder on the list named Warren Buffet though as you have pointed out, he really may not have built the bulk of that wealth through classic buy and hold strategies. But that’s beside the point. The point is that of course there are many many more than that one guy who are on that same list who are indeed market timers which is just a fancy word for trader. What is it with Ramsey and Edelman Mike? Have they not heard of George Soros, or Ray Dalio, or T Boone Pickens, Stevie Cohen, James Simons, Paul Tudor Jones, Stephen Feinberg, Bruce Kovner, Eddie Lampert, David Shaw, Louis Bacon, Jeffrey Gendell, Stephen Mandel, Israel Englander, Richard Perry, David Tepper, Stanley Drunkenmiller, William Von Mueffling, John Arnold, John Paulson, or Julian Robertson??? I could go on. All of these guys to my knowledge are billionaires whose net worth is high enough to be qualify for the Forbes 400 list. And that’s not to mention the hoards of “market timers” who may not be wealthy enough to be on the list but certainly are among the top one tenth of one percent of the world wealthiest individuals. Men such as Boaz Weinstein, or Bill Dunn. You know Mike, I can name a heck of a lot more super wealthy “market timers” than I can long term buy and holders. The only super wealthy buy and holders I can name are Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch. It really annoys me that Dave Ramsey and Rick Edelman continue to claim that no one can make any money by trading. It simply isn’t true. I was the guy who sent you the article from yahoo news about the guy who lost in faith in the market. If you read that article, you would have noticed that near the end of the article, they pointed out that the man they highlighted in the article had lost about 90% of his money and only had $800K left. Unbelievable Mike! You talk about taking a 50% draw down with buy and hold! This guy was a multimillionaire with about $8 million in his retirement account, and his buy and hold strategy combined with obvious additional poor choices resulted in him losing about $7.2 million dollars! Meanwhile, these “market timers” I mentioned above had their net worths rise and rise and rise through the past few years. I know this because, I remember reading about many of them in trader monthly magazine back in 2006 and many of them had not even accumulated a billion dollar net worth by then and now most of them are multi billionaires. I really wish Ramsey and Edelman would educate themselves more on this issue before they speak. There! I’m done ranting! I love ya man!

Thanks Davie, but Ramsey and Edelman do what they do on purpose. Very much on purpose. It’s up to everyone out there to figure out their motivations for misleading. Hints for their “why” can be found here: Dave Ramsey 5 foundations.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Wall Street Jargon Defined from a Trend Following Perspective

A few of Wall Street’s favorite catch phrases need to be defined:

CTA: CTA stands for commodity trading advisor. It is a government term used to classify regulated fund managers who primarily trade futures markets. Almost all successful CTAs trade as trend following traders. CTAs are the other quants the media never seems to cover accurately.

Managed Futures: This is a term that describes regulated fund managers who use futures to trade for clients. It is an awful term because it fixates on the instrument (futures), not the strategy. Here’s the dirty little secret: Almost all successful managed futures trading firms use a trend following strategy. The term is often used interchangeably with CTA. Noted radio host and author Dave Ramsey recently had this to say about managed futures: “The term managed futures is virtually an oxymoron…with managed futures you’re basically betting on the future price of a commodity. What’s the price of gold, or oil, or wheat going to be somewhere down the road? You’re guessing as to what the future will bring, and managing a group of those guesses. What a joke!” If you share Dave Ramsey’s view and understanding, I recommend a full frontal lobotomy as your best wealth-building plan.

High Frequency Trading: High frequency trading is the latest term to describe arbitrage— at whatever time frame. It is about getting an advantage through speed and access. Most people are not going to enter the world of high frequency trading (or be Goldman Sachs). It’s a nonissue for your trading success.

Global Macro or Systematic Global Macro: Global macro is another term used to describe trend following traders, but indirectly. They do not say managed futures, and they do not say hedge fund, so it is global macro. It might make wealthy investors in Liechtenstein and Saudi Arabia feel more secure. The strategy is still trend following.

Hedge Fund: Think unregulated mutual fund that can trade in all markets up and down. Most hedge funds have terrible strategy: They are long only on leveraged stocks. That’s it. Not as sexy as the press makes it. Of course, it all depends, and some hedge funds do make a killing. Usually, they are of the systematic trend following variety.

Long Only: Long only means you make one bet. You bet that the market will always go up.

Buy and Hold: Buy and hold strategy (hope) is the same as long only.

Index Investing: You buy the S&P 500 Index and whatever it does is the return you get.

Value Investing: Attempts to use fundamentals to uncover undervalued stocks. The belief is you are buying cheap or low (terms that can mean anything to anyone). When that doesn’t work out, you call the government and ask for a bailout.

Quant: You use formulas and rules, not daily discretion or fundamentals to make trading decisions. That said, unless quant is defined with precision you can never know what it means exactly. Trend following is a form of quant trading.

Repeatable Alpha: Alpha is return generated from trading skill. If you buy and hold the S&P 500 Index, and if it makes a positive return, that’s not alpha. That return is beta for there was no skill involved. Repeatable alpha is simply the nice academic way of saying profit from skill. Trend following’s argument as the only repeatable alpha is tough to counter.

Beta: The return you get for accepting the average. There is no skill involved. Think about a monkey aimlessly throwing darts against the wall— it’s that level of skill. Long: You buy a stock or futures contract.

Excerpted from Trend Commandments.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ignore Everybody (Except Covel!)

Source: gapingvoid.com.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Covel, Why Are You Not on CNBC All of the Time?”

Seth Godin writes:

Media volatility makes more people and more ideas famous for ever shorter periods of time. What the fine art market shows us, though, is that real value isn’t created by this volatile fame. Consistently showing up on the radar of the right audience is more highly prized than reaching the masses, once then done. This works for every career, even if you’ve never touched a brush.

My work, my creativity, my thought–is driven around reaching the right people–not necessarily the masses.

Think about what drives the masses.

But: “Covel, Why Are You Not on CNBC All of the Time?”

Answer.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Want to Make Money? Forget the Daily News Drivel. Here Is Some Inspirational Thinking

Firemen, donuts and meetings.
The more or less choice.
Is America at a digital turning point?
Optimism has its advantages, but some worry the region may lose touch with the rest of the world.
Entrepreneurial grab bag.
Leadership lessons from the Shackleton expedition.

Yes, you need a technical indicator as part of your trend following system, but you need those links even more for a chance at profit in our charmingly chaotic world.

Is it all good out there? Stuff I found to be white noise, but clearly popular:

A Few Tips For Developers On How To Get Hired By A Startup
SEC Ups Its Game to Identify Rogue Firms
Answers to Google Interview Questions


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.