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Ep. 291: Steven Kotler Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel

 

Steven Kotler
Steven Kotler

My guest today is Steven Kotler, an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, Wired, GQ, Discover, Popular Science, Outside, Men’s Journal, Details and National Geographic Adventure. He is best known for his non-fiction books, including the New York Times bestseller Abundance, A Small Furry Prayer, and West of Jesus.

The topic is his book The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Synonyms for flow
  • Flow in basketball and other sports
  • Group flow
  • Pattern recognition
  • The neurological explanation for flow
  • The four stages of flow
  • Why flow is not just a binary state
  • Spiritual experiences compared to flow states
  • Brain activity during flow states; the “deep now”
  • Getting to the flow state with drugs
  • The flow state and the act of being on stage
  • Why you need to take risks to get into flow
  • Social fear, risk, and pain vs. physical fear, risk, and pain
  • Method acting, screen presence, and flow
  • The military and flow research
  • Risk and comfort
  • The balance between challenges and skills
  • Getting comfortable with being uncomfortable
  • The fight or flight mindset
  • Future research into flow

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Ep. 290: Mark Rzepczynski Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski

My guest today is Mark Rzepczynski, a Founder and Chief Investment Officer at AMPHI Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AMPHI Capital Management, he was the CEO of the Fund Group at FourWinds Capital Management, where he oversaw alternative investments. Rzepczynski was also President and Chief Investment Officer at John W. Henry & Co., an iconic Commodity Trading Advisor. He is on the Advisory Board of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA), the Associate Editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments, and a former board member of the FIA Futures Industry Association.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Advantages of podcasting as a format over traditional media outlets
  • Why prices are “primal”
  • Prices as a heuristic
  • Rzepczynski’s ah-ha moment that brought him to the heuristic of price
  • Why a complex education doesn’t necessarily mean you should use a complex system
  • Why knowing the transductive reasoning behind price movement is unnecessary
  • VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous
  • VUCA in the context of portfolio management
  • The zen of trading and portfolio management; the importance of passion in investing
  • The notion of over-diversification
  • Dynamic allocation
  • Convergent vs. divergent
  • The improbability principle
  • Tail events and preparing for the unexpected
  • The notion of systematic vs. discretionary
  • How trend following is represented in the mainstream media
  • Complexity
  • Risk and return
  • Volatility and complacency

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Ep. 288: Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths
Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths

My guests today are Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates and Robin Griffiths, the Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC.

The topic is markets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle.
  • Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies.

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Ep. 286: Alex Greyserman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Alex Greyserman
Alex Greyserman

My guest today is Alex Greyserman, Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. He is a member of the ISAM Systematic Investment Committee. He has 25 years of experience in the Managed Futures industry, having starting initially as Research Director at Mint Investment Management Co.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman’s continue to have tremendous success
  • Alternatives to thinking only ‘long stocks’
  • Greyserman’s first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together
  • Why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade
  • The difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum
  • The phrase “crisis alpha” and why trend following does well in times of crisis
  • The cost of not having trend following in your portfolio
  • Benchmarking and diversification
  • Why the worst thing you can do is “trend follow a trend follower”
  • The science of trend following
  • Speculation
  • Trend following your life–not just the markets
  • Dispersion among trend following traders
  • Effect of a higher rate environment

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alex greyserman

Ep. 285: Anthony Todd Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Anthony Todd
Anthony Todd

My guest today is Anthony Todd, the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why prices aren’t random
  • Finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge
  • The idea of “predictable” patterns in the market
  • The desire to know static positions
  • How crowd behavior drives trends
  • Addressing misconceptions
  • Using fundamentals in a systematic way
  • Defining Todd’s medium-term style of trend following
  • Why “it’s less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach”
  • How long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it
  • Client understanding of trend following drawdowns
  • The phraseology of “crisis alpha”
  • The culture that Todd has built at Aspect
  • Todd’s advice to young entrepreneurs.

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Ep. 284: Jason Fried Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jason Fried
Jason Fried

My guest today is Jason Fried, the co-founder and President of 37signals, a privately-held Chicago-based company committed to building the best web-based tools possible with the least number of features necessary.

The topic is his book Rework.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The first dollar Fried made online and other formative experiences
  • Keeping business simple
  • Making something more valuable than the dollars people give you
  • The intimacy of exchanging money
  • The idea of doing less than your competitors to beat them
  • Building an audience
  • The “real world”
  • Why an MBA program might not teach you much about entrepreneurism
  • Corporate structure
  • Focusing on what will not change
  • Zen and the moment of right now
  • Not focusing too far into the future
  • Fried’s experience with Jeff Bezos
  • Idea of improvisation or “winging it” in business

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Ep. 281: Vineer Bhansali Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Vineer Bhansali
Vineer Bhansali

My guest today is Vineer Bhansali, the managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is “Tail Risk Hedging”. He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”
  • Trend following in the classical sense
  • How trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO
  • Introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients
  • The three hypotheses tested in “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”
  • Currency trading and trend following returns
  • Why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets
  • Trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches
  • Connecting Bhansali’s hobbies to the quantitative world
  • Structure and thinking in terms of code
  • Imagining and building simulations
  • Being distribution aware
  • Why being at all-time highs is not the time to feel satisfied

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