“There is an unsentimental logic to markets. If you make a bad investment, you are supposed to pay the full price — because if you don’t pay the full price, you will keep making bad investments. The only way to get the bond market back to its historic role is to make bondholders feel real fear that they might lose money if they make bad decisions. We need the market to reward bets that are economically wise, instead of those that are politically savvy.”
Wonder if we ever get there….
Name: We will get back there because our government will run out of money like the Greeks’ government. Ours will be painful too.
A May 25, 1959 Time Magazine article called “Pas de Dough” was recently forwarded to Michael Covel. It was about a professional dancer named Nicolas Darvas, who had made two million dollars trading stocks. This was probably one of the first trend following articles to appear in a major publication.
Sports metaphors when it comes to trend following work great, but there are clearly others. For example, both trend following and dancing judge the public’s enthusiasm and use that as the indicator for the next move.
In this monologue, Covel talks about the article and Darvas’ book, breaks down the fundamentals of trend following, and explains why the philosophy behind trend following still applies today. He also comments on how trend following can be applied to the current black swan economic situations in China and Greece.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
What trend following and dancing have in common
The philosophical foundations of trend following
Stock trading and location independence
Why relying on “fundamentals” is fool’s gold
What being a silent partner in the trend means
Why Darvas’ thinking from 1959 still applies today
The importance of having no ego when it comes to trading
“The only sound reason for my buying a stock is that it is rising in price. If that is happening, no other reason is required. If that is not happening, no other reason is worth considering” —Nicolas Darvas