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Ep. 558: A Trend Following Back and Forth on Trend Following Radio

A Trend Following Back and Forth on Trend Following Radio
A Trend Following Back and Forth on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue A Trend Following Back and Forth on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Is trend following dead?
  • Warren Buffett
  • Catching the bottom of the market
  • Prediction as a business
  • Price action
  • Process vs. Outcome
  • CNBC
  • Fundamentals

“Not losing money is a great trading strategy.” – Michael Covel

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 557: Eric Barker Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Eric Barker
Eric Barker

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My guest today is Eric Barker, the founder of the blog, Barking Up The Wrong Tree. He provides science based answers and expert insight on how to be awesome in life. His newest work is “Barking Up the Wrong Tree: The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong”.

The topic is his book Barking Up the Wrong Tree: The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The entrepreneurial feeling
  • What makes valedictorians succeed
  • Filter leaders
  • Obstacles for creative people
  • Structure of story telling
  • Failure tolerance
  • Creating meaningful mentorships

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Seeing the Light when Trend Following

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel,

My name is [Name]. I’ve been wanting to write to you to express my gratitude for what you do, so here it goes.

A little background on me so you know where I’m coming from. I live in [Name] and I’m a 27-year veteran officer of the [Name] Police Department.

Like most people I know, for the majority of my life I’ve been financially illiterate in regard to anything related to the stock market. I always found financial matters boring, therefore I paid little attention to them.

My interest perked up a bit while I was in the police academy. We had a one hour class one day with an instructor who discussed participation in the department’s 457B plan. Charts were passed out which graphed how much money we could expect at retirement when projecting an annual amount contributed combined with how many years in service times an average expected annual yield. When I looked in the lower right corner of that graph and saw that a long career with a maximum payroll deduction could exceed a million dollars, that was for me! I signed up immediately and have been maxed out in my 457B plan for most of the time since that eye-opening day.

My financial literacy at that point in my life was this: just pump money into my retirement plan, then when I retire I’ll be set. Maybe I’ll even be a millionaire. I still hadn’t fully recognized then how my retirement plan hinged on stock market performance.

Fast forward to about seven years ago and the purchase of my first iPhone. With my new-found interest in Apple I read a news article which related how Apple’s stock price had, over the course of a few years, increased over 30,000%. That was simply staggering to me. If I owned $5,000 worth of Apple stock at its lows I wouldn’t have to wait until I was retired to be a millionaire. With that revelation, my interest then turned to the stock market.

I had long since established a practice of determining, pursuing and achieving goals throughout my life, so I confidently embarked on a goal of becoming a successful trader/investor. With knowledge gained through my studies, it was only then that I began to grasp the mechanics of my retirement plan. Understanding for the first time then how my savings had been cut in half twice – the 2000 and 2008 bear markets – with my being virtually oblivious to it during those times sickened me. I’m grateful that I finally woke up and can confidently manage and safeguard the retirement accounts for my wife and I now that we are close to retirement. Up until recently it has been sheer dumb luck that we have benefited from the market’s current run to all-time highs.

Back to the trading. It has been a challenge, to say the least, but now in my sixth year I am finally practicing a strategy that works along with the discipline to execute it. A large percentage of that results from a handful of traders such as yourself who have shared what they’ve learned so that “home gamers” like me can find the means to succeed. I don’t think anyone who has studied or trained for a career in the financial world of trading truly understands the myriad of pitfalls novices face, or if they do they likely exploit them for their own gain. Fair enough, but it’s easy for me to see why most traders give up, blow up or wash out. I’m glad to count myself among the minority who have navigated successfully through the minefield where so many others have failed.

“Trend Following” has long been on my “must read” recommendation list. Congratulations on the publication of the new edition of your book; it’s a beauty. My old version is heavily highlighted, and I expect my new copy will be as well.

I’m also an avid fan of your podcasts. From those, and your writings, what I appreciate above all else is your genuine sense of honest, no bullshit, tell it like it is approach to getting your message across to those eager to listen and learn. Your podcasts are light years ahead of any others I listen to because you actually engage your guests with questions and comments pertinent to what they’re talking about, making them more enthusiastic about how they’re responding. Nothing ever comes off sounding scripted, and that’s damn refreshing and entertaining.

The main reason I mentioned that I was a police officer is because of an interesting parallel in regard to each of our paths through life. I can say that after 27 years of working the streets of [Name] there is a world which exists all around us which most people aren’t even aware of, and probably never will be. I tell family and friends true stories of experiences I have, and even as I’m speaking to them I can see the expression on their face belies the fact that they’re not fully believing what I’m saying, or at the very least I’m exaggerating. My experiences are often too contrary to experiences they’ve had in the world they live their lives in. They have no reference point to fathom the extremes of the world I work in.

I’ve never stepped foot on Wall Street, but the parallel I see between you and I is that, with my own unique perspective in mind, I can more readily believe and accept your no bullshit, tell it like it is interpretation of what really happens in the real world of Wall Street which most people aren’t aware of, and probably never will be. What you write and what you say sidesteps the sensationalized media noise of CNBC, et al., and shines a light on a world so contrary to those who accept CNBC noise as gospel that they can’t or won’t fathom the possibility of anything other than what they’re being spoon fed as truth.

The insight of real worlds existing beyond the worlds most people see is something I think we have in common, in our own ways. Accepting the wisdom of your unique perspective of the trading world has helped me greatly in garnering the measure of success which I’ve achieved thus far. For that, I thank you.

Thanks for taking the time to read this. I know it got a bit lengthy, but I guess I got on a roll.

If you’re ever in [Name] I’d be delighted to meet up with you somewhere for a bite to eat, or just to shake your hand and thank you in person for all you’ve done for me, if possible.

Thanks again!

Sincerely,

[Name]

Thanks! Awesome feedback. Made me smile.

Further Trend Following Articles and podcasts: Interview with Michael Gervais; Bryan Caplan Podcast; This Monkey’s gone to heaven; How Nicolas Darvas made $2 million Trend Following, and the Big Event Big Crash.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 556: R.P. Eddy Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

R. P. Eddy
R. P. Eddy

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My guest today is R.P. Eddy, an American businessman, venture investor, former U.S. government official and former U.N. diplomat. He is currently the CEO of Ergo, a strategy and geo political intelligence firm. R.P. is also co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.” R.P. profiled in depth Cassandras ranging from: Fukushima, Katrina, Madoff, 2008 collapse, the rise of Isis, and the invasion of Kuwait.

The topic is his book Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Indicators and warning
  • Analysis and foresight
  • Pax Americana
  • Fukushima
  • Corruption vs. competence
  • Bernie Madoff
  • Black Swans
  • 2008 collapse

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2017 Trend Following Table of Contents

Foreword by Barry L. Ritholtz
Preface

I. Trend Following Principles

1. Trend Following
Speculation
Winning versus Losing
Investor versus Trader
Fundamental versus Technical
Discretionary versus Systematic
Hiding in Plain Sight
Change Is Life
Follow the Trend to the End When It Bends
Surf the Waves

2. Great Trend Followers
David Harding
Bill Dunn
John W Henry
Ed Seykota
Keith Campbell
Jerry Parker
Salem Abraham
Richard Dennis
Richard Donchian
Jesse Livermore and Dickson Watts

3. Performance Proof
Absolute Returns
Volatility versus Risk
Drawdowns
Correlation
Zero Sum
George Soros
Berkshire Hathaway

4. Big Events, Crashes, and Panics
Event 1: Great Recession
Event 2: Dot-com Bubble
Event 3: Long-Term Capital Management
Event 4: Asian Contagion
Event 5: Barings Bank
Event 6: Metallgesellschaft
Event 7: Black Monday

5. Thinking Outside the Box
Baseball
Billy Beane
Bill James
Stats Take Over

6. Human Behavior
Prospect Theory
Emotional Intelligence
Neuro-Linguistic Programming
Trading Tribe
Curiosity, Not PhDs
Commitment

7. Decision Making
Occam’s Razor
Fast and Frugal Decision Making
Innovator’s Dilemma
Process versus Outcome versus Gut

8. The Scientific Method
Critical Thinking
Linear versus Nonlinear
Compounding

9. Holy Grails
Buy and Hope
Warren Buffett
Losers Average Losers
Avoiding Stupidity

10. Trading Systems
Risk, Reward, and Uncertainty
Five Questions
Your Trading System
Frequently Asked Questions

11. The Game
Acceptance
Don’t Blame Me
Decrease Leverage, Decrease Return
Fortune Favors the Bold

II. Trend Following Interviews

12. Ed Seykota
13. Martin Lueck
14. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
15. Ewan Kirk
16. Alex Greyserman
17. Campbell Harvey
18. Lasse Heje Pedersen

III. Trend Following Research

19. A Multicentennial View of Trend Following
The Tale of Trend Following: A Historical Study
Return Characteristics over the Centuries
Risk Characteristics over the Centuries
Portfolio Benefits over the Centuries

20. Two Centuries of Trend Following
Trend Following on Futures since 1960
Extending the Time Series: A Case-by-Case Approach
Trend over Two Centuries

21. Trend Following
Introduction to Different Trend Following Models
Diversification between Different Trend Following Models
Aspect’s Approach to Trend Following
Aspect’s Model Compared to Other Trend Following Models

22. Evaluating Trading Strategies
Testing in Other Fields of Science
Revaluating the Candidate Strategy
Two Views of Multiple Testing
False Discoveries and Missed Discoveries
Haircutting Sharpe Ratios
An Example with Standard and Poor’s Capital IQ
In Sample and Out of Sample
Trading Strategies and Financial Products

23. Black Box Trend Following—Lifting the Veil
The Strategies
Performance Results and Graphs
Sector Performance
Performance of Long versus Short Trades
Stability of Parameters
Are CTAs a Diversifier or a Hedge to the SP500?

24. Risk Management
Risk
Risk Management
Optimal Betting
Hunches and Systems
Simulations
Pyramiding and Martingale
Optimizing—Using Simulation
Optimizing—Using Calculus
Optimizing—Using the Kelly Formula
Some Graphic Relationships Between Luck,
and Optimal Bet Fraction
Nonbalanced Distributions and High Payoffs
Almost-Certain-Death Strategies
Diversification
The Uncle Point
Measuring Portfolio Volatility: Sharpe, VaR, Lake Ratio, and Stress Testing
Stress Testing
Portfolio Selection
Position Sizing
Psychological Considerations

25. How to GRAB a Bargain Trading Futures…Maybe
How to GRAB a Bargain Trading Futures
Following Trends Is Hard Work
Figuring Out How the Pros Do It
A Computer Model of the Pros
A Terrible Discovery
Solving the Mystery—Why Does the GRAB System Lose?
Often It Is Out of Sync with the Market
Worse Still, It Misses the Best Moves!
Maybe Being Profitable Means Being Uncomfortable?
GRAB Trading System Details
Buys on Break of Support, Sells on Break of Resistance
Testing Reveals Some Behavior I Do Not Expect
Difference between Parameter Values Defines Character of GRAB System
GRAB Trading System Code

26. Why Tactical Macro Investing Still Makes Sense
Managed Futures
Defining Managed Futures and CTAs
Where Institutional Investors Position Managed Futures and CTAs
Skewness and Kurtosis
Data
Basic Statistics
Stocks, Bonds, Plus Hedge Funds or Managed Futures
Hedge Funds Plus Managed Futures
Stocks, Bonds, Hedge Funds, and Managed Futures

27. Carry and Trend in Lots of Places
Carry and Trend: Definitions, Data, and Empirical Study
Carry and Trend in Interest Rate Futures
Trend and Carry across Asset Classes
Carry and Trend across Rate Regimes

28. The Great Hypocrisy

Epilogue
Afterword by Larry Hite
Trend Following Podcast Episodes
Endnotes
Bibliography
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Index


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 555: Denise Shull Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Denise Shull
Denise Shull

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Denise Shull, a performance and decision coach to traders and athletes. She is well known for her effectiveness in assessing performance under high pressure situations. Denise began her Wall Street career in 1994 as trader and desk manager on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. She was always fascinated by the psychology side of trading from the outset of her trading career. In 2015 she offered critical insight on how to put together one of the main characters of the hit show “Billions” on Showtime.

The topic is trading psychology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Bio-psychology
  • Attachment theory
  • Neurosciences
  • Conviction as data
  • Fractal emotions
  • Efficient market theory
  • Self blame as a positive

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Review of the Trend Following New Edition by RCM Alternatives

Great review of the new edition of Trend Following from by RCM Alternatives:

We’re not sure if author Michael Covel has a tattoo across his back of a trend in a market like Sugar, but suffice to say the man loves him some trend following. We follow him on twitter @Covel and listen to his wonderful podcast from time to time – so when we saw the news that he had released a new and improved fifth edition of his book “Trend Following,” with its new tagline: “How to Make a fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets” we had to see what was new. We’ve read all of Covel’s books over the years but realized with this recent edition that we had never reviewed any of them on the blog, despite including them on our Required Reading list.

So we got to reading all 600+ pages. It’s a beast of a book, but at least there are lots of “pictures” in the form of charts and tables.

The Michael Covel new edition Review Highlights:

One of the more surprising additions to the new version hit us right off the bat – with the forward written by blogger/investment advisor/Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz. Barry writes great stuff, but the surprising part is that he mostly writes against investing in anything except buy and hold stock market and real estate investments. And here he is doing the foreword for a book on decidedly not buy and hold folks – managed futures hedge fund strategies and legends. Perhaps he’s coming around, and understanding the math will unseat some biases for him.

Once you get into the meat of the book, Covel starts by digging into the principles behind trend following, which seems as old as the hills to us, ingrained in our psyche… BUT may be new to those who haven’t lived it.

Trend followers are traders, not investors – going long and short. Trend followers are systematic – removing emotion and fake news and bogus earnings reports, and all the rest. Price rules all. Price is the final determinant. Trend following can be a bumpy ride – indeed, it can be argued that the bumpy ride is what results with the payoff.

The best part of the book remains the highlighting of trend following legends. As Covel says, “the wise and most efficient way to understand trend following is not by learning rules…. But by reviewing every last detail of the traders who practice it…” and he gets right into it, starting with none other than the largest trend follower in the world, $20+ Billion Winton Capital’s David Harding (although he might not like that moniker). After that, there’s Boston Red Sox and Liverpool Football Club owner John Henry and a host of others famous in our line of work. As the line in ‘Top Gun’ goes, the list is long and distinguished, just like… “

Some of the best nuggets in here include John Henry starting with a $16,000 managed account; Ed Seykota’s amazing average of 60%, after fees, in his prop account between 1990 and 2000, and a copy of the 60+ questions asked of those applying for the famous turtle trader program. Next he goes into the “performance proof” for trend following, which he neatly packages here with tables upon tables of trend following managers long term returns spanning 100s to 100s of percent, and correctly noting that volatility doesn’t equal risk in a special way for trend followers, which tend to have their volatility to the upside. This section also highlights the “inevitable,” as Covel calls it, with trend following – the drawdown, where we get this great quote from Harding:

“…Managers are obliged to wear their worst historical drawdown like a scarlet letter for the rest of their lives.”

There’s also this great chart in the performance section when talking about drawdowns, Trend following gets a bad rap, but is essentially no riskier in terms of drawdowns than many others. We wish he would have included Ackman and his Valeant trade in there.

Trend Following Ledgends Draw Downs

Next up, are analyses of “Big Events, Crashes, & Panics” such as the Dot.com bust, Great Recession, and Long Term Capital Mgmt., etc. We were disappointed not to see our chart included, but he tackles it more from a manager by manager perspective instead of via an index. It’s worth noting most authors would have led with this, whereas it’s merely another characteristic of trend following to Covel. Sort of like the gravy on top of the already well-structured investing thesis.

The rest of the book is a bit more entertaining, straying away from pure talk about trend following with a nicely done chapter on the explosion of sports analytics following Billy Beane, MoneyBall, and the obvious corollaries to a systematic mathematical approach to markets. He also takes on Nate Silver, CNBC pundits, Warren Buffet, and the stock market in general in the chapter “Holy Grails,” while exploring the mindset and decision making chops needed to succeed in trend following (it’s not natural behavior). He finishes with a few hundred pages of actual rules for building your own trend following system, manager interviews, and reams upon reams of trend following research charts, data, and tables. Much of this the expanded part!

We certainly learned a thing of two after giving the book another read. Whether you’re a newbie to Trend Following or live by the trend following rules religiously, Covel’s books are the definitive source on all things trend following – from the history of the method and the strategy rules to the emotions needed to stick to it and the legendary money makers who’ve plied this trade for decades. So no matter if you watch energy prices out of curiosity or invest millions in managed futures strategies, this is the book which will help you understand the who, why, and how prices and those investments following them may be moving the way they are. Grab your copy here!

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.