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Category: Trend Following

“I serendiptitously had Ed Seykota as neighbor…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Michael,

I started my career with E.D.&F. Man in NYC in the early 1980’s and later in London. I had the pleasure of meeting Larry Hite & Peter Matthews in New York. They started me on my trend following and quantitative asset management journey.

Between NY and London the Man Group had me work for a while in Hamilton Bermuda. While living on an incredible estate on the South Shore I serendipitously had Ed Seykota as neighbor (he lived in the main house and I lived in the guest house on the old J.P. Morgan estate). Ed was generous with his time, whiskey and cigars and I learned a great deal in the short time we were neighbors.

In London, I was around for those exciting years when Man began its initial expansion into the CTA/AI world. One of its first major acquisitions was of AHL (Adam, Harding and Leuck).

Your book is like a walk down memory lane for me and I wanted to thank you for it!

What strikes me as incredible is just how resistant mainstream institutions remain after over 3 decades of evidence as to the efficacy of trend following and the abject failure of EMT based asset management. I work for a major US Bank/Brokerage/Financial Management Firm of the ‘Too Big to Fail” ilk and the policies it pursues are clearly about managing their “liability” as opposed to managing their clients money in a results oriented manner. Fortunately, I have found a team within this environment that is swimming against the current and has fully embraced trend following to develop strategies for its clients. Our activities are viewed as subversive but are for the most part tolerated…to date.

I look forward to devouring your book and the ammunition it will provide me in my personal mission to help as many innocent investors stuck in the EMT trap!

Best regards,
[Name]

Thanks for the great feedback!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“…the best entry system?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Dear Michael,

I recently finished your new book, Trend Following. This is your best work to date and I thoroughly enjoyed reading it!

I was hoping to get some guidance from you regarding the best entry system. In chapter 23 of your book, you do a great job of comparing the 50-day channel breakout to the 10X100 simple moving average crossover. It appears to me that the moving average results were superior to the channel breakout method. While both methods have demonstrated good historic results, which method do you recommend today?

Thanks and best regards,
[Name]

It’s not an either or answer.

Both work.

Please don’t think my answer is curt or blunt, it’s not!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“They are absolutely fantastic! There is so much good material…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Hi Michael,

I am from [Name]. I am a discretionary trader. I had some success and lot of failures over 10 years that I have been trading. I have tried all sorts of different methods. I have had success with option writing strategies and blown my account up a few times with with the same methods. A few months ago I was googling “Good Trading Podcasts” and I stumbled upon your website. I have listened to approximately 30 to 40 episodes from Trend Following Radio. They are absolutely fantastic! There is so much good material in them and you prepare very well for each episode.

I am just about to go for a 7 hour drive home now and I will be listening to 7-10 more episodes on my way. They make long drives go by so fast. I am interested in the methods you are promoting and am looking to find out more about them. Since you have done so much good work with the podcasts I am going to be purchasing the 4 books you have published (I believe you have 5 books but your newest Trend Following Book covers everything from the first edition. Correct?). You also have me interested in Jack Schwager’s material along with many other people’s material who you have interviewed. Anyway I will be purchasing your books this evening when I return home. Thanks again for the great podcasts and the amazing guests you have on them. You just made another sale because of it.

Thanks!

Starting steps: www.trendfollowing.com/start

PS. Yes, newest edition of TF (Wiley; 2017) is what you need.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 576: Political Bulls with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Political Bulls with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Political Bulls with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Political Bulls with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Parliament of Whores
  • Bill Clinton presidency
  • Political dog and pony show
  • 2000 stock crash

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“Thanks for your most interesting Ep: 571: Jimmy Soni and Rob Goodman Interview!”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Hello Michael,

Thanks for your most interesting ‘Ep: 571: Jimmy Soni and Rob Goodman Interview’ re Claude Shannon.

I’ll admit that his paper was mostly over my head when I read it as a grad student in the Interdisciplinary Telecommunications Program at the University of Colorado, but certainly the idea of applying wide interests to supposedly specialized fields is something I do understand, having gone from a BA in another interdisciplinary program, a great books program as an undergrad, to doing software development and architecture at Nortel in the 90s, by way of a long period of budget travel in Europe in-between.

Re your exchange w/ the authors re collaboration: the below podcast is a glimpse into Penn & Teller’s collaboration over 40yrs, not so smooth as the collaboration that Soni & Goodman describe among themselves. May your collaboration be as fruitful as P&T’s, and more in-sync at a personal level!

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/619/the-magic-show?act=1

Best,
[Name]
Dallas

Thanks.

“The views expressed… make me feel both encouraged and uncomfortable…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Mr. Covel,

I would like to sincerely thank you for your massive contributions to the world of finance. I have been listening to your podcast for almost a year, and I just read your latest edition of Trend Following. Each of these has been life changing. The views expressed in each piece of work make me feel both encouraged and uncomfortable.

I am encouraged because many of your trend following and life philosophies match my own. I am uncomfortable because some of them are the exact opposite of my own.

Being that discomfort creates growth, I am excited about further exploring the views that make me feel this way. In that spirit, I would like to ask a question or two about how my current trading system does not match up with some of the trend following principles,

1. As a rule, I do not short companies whose PPE outweighs their market capitalization. My reason for this is that they become prime candidates for acquisition or restructuring which could really hurt my short position. Do you have any rules in your system where fundamentals or external factors will cause you to not take a position even when the trend is strong? Do you think any kind of rule like this is justifiable?

2. I currently use a 5% trailing stop to exit a winning trade with 10%+ profit. After reading your book, I think this is too conservative. What are your thoughts on the use of trailing stops to exit winning trades?

I know that you are a very busy man, and I will not be offended at all if these questions go unanswered. I will continue to listen to older episodes of your podcast and read more books on trend following in the hopes that I can find them myself.

Keep up the great work. Your passion shines through and is very inspirational.

Thank You,
[Name]

Thanks for your nice note.

Let me ask out of the gate: Why the need for fundamentals, a trailing stop and a profit target?

Let’s start there.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“If you have your mind made up without finishing the book, best of luck…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Hi Michael,

I am interested in getting into Trend Following and am trying to find good entry and exit signals but I haven’t found anything good yet. I am also reading your book, about 40% through, and find that it is very generalized and more defending trend following without helping someone who is already convinced.

Appreciate your advice!
[Name]

Have you read Chapter 10? Have you read Section III? Why the fixation on entry/exit alone over other parts of trend following that are clearly far more important? Please also define good. You have narrowed your focus to one item that you perceive withheld from you and all else is apparently superfluous. I am open to a discussion, but if you have your mind made up without finishing the book, best of luck.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.