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Managed Futures Describes an Instrument, Not the Strategy. It’s Trend Following

Wall Street types love to call trend following trading ‘managed futures’. That makes no sense. Futures are an instrument, NOT a strategy. The largest so-called managed futures firms are trend followers. If you want acceptance, if you want confusion alleviated, then call the strategy something that makes sense. Jerry Parker, an original Turtle who runs a trend following managed futures firm, has said it well:

“I think another mistake we made was defining ourselves as managed futures, where we immediately limit our universe. Is our expertise in that, or is our expertise in systematic trend following, or model development. So maybe we trend follow with Chinese porcelain. Maybe we trend follow with gold and silver, or stock futures, or whatever the client needs. It’s called managed futures because that was the profit center at the FCMs. We’re trading these great systems, and testing, and making sure what we do has worked in the past. And being disciplined, and unemotional, and applying our methods to the futures markets. But limiting our trading to this one group of markets. We need to look at the investment world globally and communicate our expertise of systematic trading. You have Big Blue beating the world chess champion, and everybody saying yeah, that makes sense, I can understand that. We’ve not been able to maximize our opportunities with systematic trading. People look at systematic and computerized trading with too much skepticism. But a day will come when people will see that systematic trend following is one of the best ways to limit risk, and create a portfolio that has some reasonable expectation of making money. We’ve got to be there and ready to take advantage of the opportunity. I think we’ve mis-communicated to our clients what our expertise really is. Systematic trading is going to be better for everyone in the long run. Our methods will work on lots of different markets. The ones that are hot today, the ones that are not hot today. We don’t want to pigeon-hole ourselves as managed futures or commodities.”

Excerpts: Managed Account Reports


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Silly Rabbit, Trix Are for Kids

A question posted recently here on my blog:

“What value do individual traders provide society with? I can understand that fund managers earn fees by helping clients earn profits. But what about individual traders who trade their own account? I think Anthony Robbins said that what you earn is directly related to the value you provide, so to earn more you should provide more value. What value do traders provide? A couple of things I can only think of: capital and liquidity. But how do returns relate to the value a trader provide?”

If you take traders and speculators out of the market what are you left with? Of course that ignores the point that everyone (including this poster) is a trader to begin with — whether they understand that point or not.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Paul Tudor Jones II on the “Tape”

Paul Tudor Jones thinks smartly. An example:

When trading macro, you never have a complete information set or information edge the way analysts can have when trading individual securities. It’s a hell of a lot easier to get an information edge on one stock than it is on the S&P 500. When it comes to trading macro, you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, which is something of a lost art form. The inability to read a tape and spot trends is also why so many in the relative-value space who rely solely on fundamentals have been annihilated in the past decade. Markets have consistently experienced ‘100-year events’ every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.

He adds:

I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you? These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates the illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary task is simply to find that explanation. As a result, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust the price action. The pain of gain is just too overwhelming for all of us to bear!

Why trend following trading has never made the cover of at least one magazine is beyond me.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Peter Borish: Prenuptial Agreement with the Market

At the panel I moderated today in Paris Peter Borish put the concept of a stop loss into terms everyone can grasp. He called it a “prenuptial” with the market.

You have to know your downside, his simple but crucial point.

More on Peter can be found on my podcast and in my film.

Peter Borish
Peter Borish

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Jesse Livermore: Trend Following Legend and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Jesse Livermore Books:

• How to Trade in Stocks (PDF)
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (PDF)


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Wisdom from 1974: Donchian Student

Barbara Dixon, a student of master trend follower Richard Donchian, writes in 1974:

Technical Analysis is based on market action, or price. The theory derives from basic economics. The price of a commodity at a given time is determined by the supply, the demand, the general economic outlook, the weather, the political climate, the optimism or pessimism of the population, and other factors. The technician looks only at the price, since by itself it represents one side of the equation and thus encompasses all the other inputs. The technician mentally substitutes the words “buy” for demand and “sell” for supply. Thus, when corn increases in price, the technician says that buying – demand – is increasing and that the price is going up. The trend follower makes no attempt to forecast the extent of a price move. His basic tenet is that once a trend begins, it has a tendency to persist in the same direction for some time. He devises precise rules to determine what, to his mind, constitutes a trend and identifies the situation when a trend has finished or reversed. He then further disciplines his thoughts into a strict set of conditions for entering and exiting the market. He acts on these rules (his “system”) to the exclusion of all other market factors. In so doing, a trend follower removes, hopefully, emotional judgmental influences from his individual market decisions.

Not exactly dated wisdom!