Please enjoy my monologue Everyone Needs a Trading System to Profit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Human nature doesn’t change
Timelessness
Behavioral finance
Sticking with a system
Risk management
Bill Dunn on trend following
“Find the wizard behind the right curtain and you have a chance.” – Michael Covel
“The system protects you from being human.” – Howard Lindzon
On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Emil van Essen. Michael first heard of Emil from former turtle, Lucy Wyatt. The first thing to note is that he is not a trend following trader. He is a commodity spread trader. Emil has been a CTA since 1997, but his first trading experience was at the early age of 12. Emil delivered papers when he was younger and would take the money and invest in rare coins. The owner of the coin store happened to be a commodity trader. He helped teach Emil about trading commodities and even put in trades for him. Emil’s first trading job was in 1986 at the age of 21.
Michael and Emil start the podcast explaining spread trading. Emil describes trend following as one dimensional whereas spread trading in his view has a multidimensional trading surface because of all the directions a trade can profit rather than if the market only goes up or down. Emil refers to his trading as not systematic but model driven. At the base of his every trade is a model and they can tweak the model accordingly as they see fit–a big distinction compared to trend following.
Emil’s firm is one of the only CTA’s that are negatively correlated to trend followers. He also believes that following rules 100% of the time is a bad idea. “Our brains are far more smarter than computers,” he states. Emil adds, “We need to know not to be emotional about trades but if you don’t adapt to change then you won’t last.” Emil also throws around the controversial word, “prediction.” He says that when he says “predication”, it is actually more about “probability.” He tries to find a method that reliably tells him that something is going to happen more often than not. Emil says, “You try and find an edge. Find consistent behavior patterns that give you a risk adjusted return.”
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Growth of commodity ETFs
Diversification
Raising money vs. Making money
Quality Investors vs. Quantity of Investors
Beta and Alpha
Not all investors are created equal
“Long only commodities is the gateway drug into commodities.” –Emil van Essen
“If your trend trading you are always capturing that extreme volatility, whereas if you are spread trading you are sometimes the victim of that volatility and if you are not well diversified then you have a problem.” –Emil van Essen
Please enjoy my monologue Earl Weaver, the Baltimore Orioles and the Power of the 3-Run Home Run with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Trend following as a numbers game
Earl Weaver’s Moneyball legacy
Why homeruns pay for the losses
Consistency as an illusion
Trading is/as a game
Know your strategy and stick with it
“Your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs.” –Earl Weaver
My guest today is Charles Poliquin. Charles is recognized as one of the worlds most successful strength coaches and has coached Olympic to professional athletes. Poliquin was Canada’s second youngest black belt at the age of 14, has mastered 6 different martial arts, and is influenced strongly by Bruce Lee, karma and other eastern influences. After getting into karate at the age of 10, he moved into lifting weights at the age of 14 and fell in love instantly with the sport. He took on his first training client in his first year of college at the age of 17 and has named himself the “Strength Sensei”.
The topic is strength coaching.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Long distance cardio vs. short sprint workouts
The importance of sleep to your health and fitness
Meditation and mindfulness
How testosterone levels affect the psychology of men and woman
Relationship between top athletes and top executives
How to stay motivated
“Progression not perfection is what you should be focusing on.” –Charles Poliquin
“The general who sleeps the most wins the war.” –Charles Poliquin
Please enjoy my monologue Jim Simons Excerpt with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Christopher Hitchens on certainty v. uncertainty
Jim Simons on Trend Following
Faith v. Skepticism
Is trend following dead?
Buying pleasure: a complete fallacy
Constraints on the truth
“But in looking at the data, after a while I realized: it looks like there’s some structure here. And I hired a few mathematicians, and we started making some models–just the kind of thing we did back at IDA [Institute for Defense Analyses]. You design an algorithm, you test it out on a computer. Does it work? Doesn’t it work? And so on.” – Jim Simons
Please enjoy my monologue Logic Over Faith with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Experts: get close to them and learn
You can’t predict the future, you can only see patterns
If you don’t like your destiny, go the other direction
Change your environment, change your life
Corporate culture: an energy determined by leaders
You don’t have to invent – fix something
“There are two kinds of people. People who make things complex, and people who simplify.” – Joey Yap
Please enjoy my monologue Logic Over Faith with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Logic over faith
Financial advisors: there to give mutual fund advice
Adapting your strategy
How quitting can keep you in the game
Forcing yourself to make decisions
Risk and reward
“What I say is, at what price? If low interest rates were just that simple of a panacea, we would never have recessions. We would never have these crises, we would never have these panics.” – Carl Icahn
