On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael talks about one of his favorite subjects: baseball and numbers. He profiles arguably one of baseball’s greatest managers, Earl Weaver of the Baltimore Orioles. Weaver believed that baseball, just like trend following, always came back to numbers. He knew the right formula was the 3-run home run.
Coincidentally, Covel’s favorite team growing up was the Orioles. They were one of the “it” team in the 1970s and early 1980’s. Unknown to most, Earl Weaver, the Orioles manager, had a strategy that was a foundation for the book (and later turned Hollywood movie) “Moneyball”. His approach to building a winning team not only applies to baseball, but also to many other aspects of life, including trend following.
Covel plays a clip about Weaver, profiling how he operated and changed the mentality of how to put together a baseball team. Focusing on every “out” was at the very core of his strategy. He looked at the whole arc of the game rather than just the beginning, middle or end. Weaver had a plan for every individual player on his team.
Weaver is just as responsible for Covel’s trend following mindset as some of the most successful trend following traders he has met. He showed that home runs win and pay for mistakes. Ask yourself: “How can I put myself in the position to capture the next home run?” That doesn’t mean to be reckless. The podcast ends with a classic Earl Weaver clip that throws a few “F” bombs around. Listener discretion is advised.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
- Trend following as a numbers game
- Earl Weaver’s Moneyball legacy
- Why homeruns pay for the losses
- Consistency as an illusion
- Trading is/as a game
- Know your strategy and stick with it
“Your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs.” –Earl Weaver
Mentions & Resources:
- Earl Weaver
- John W. Henry
- Society for American Baseball Researc
- Weaver on Strategy
- Baltimore Orioles
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