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Ep. 518: Evan Carmichael Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Evan Carmichael
Evan Carmichael

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My guest today is Evan Carmichael. He #Believes in entrepreneurs. At 19, he built then sold a biotech software company. At 22, he was a venture capitalist raising $500k to $15M. He now runs a YouTube channel for entrepreneurs with over 2 million subscribers, wrote 4 books, and speaks globally. He wants to solve the world’s biggest problem.

The topic is his book Your One Word: The Powerful Secret to Creating a Business and Life That Matter.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Importance of mentors
  • How the successful people think
  • What is your “one word”
  • If you stand for something, you stand against something else
  • Your biggest enemy is yourself
  • Self-awareness
  • Venture capitalism
  • Entrepreneurship

“Believe that what you are doing is right. Follow your passion. Do it because you are meant to do it. Do it to do it, not just to make money. Believe that you can achieve it. Have the confidence to know that if you think you can achieve it, you can. Believe that it will happen. Have the conviction to follow through. Trust that if you see only darkness around you, there is light at the end of the tunnel.” – Evan Carmichael

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Ep. 517: Thinking Tools with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Thinking Tools with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Thinking Tools with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Thinking Tools with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Flynn effect
  • Surely alarm
  • Termite colony compared to Gaudi construction
  • Genetic evolution
  • Shaping neurons in the brain
  • Intrinsic value

“You can’t do much carpentry with your bare hands, and you can’t do much thinking with your bare brain.” – Student of Daniel Dennett

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Ep. 516: Wesley Gray Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Wesley Gray
Wesley Gray

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My guest today is Wesley Gray. He served as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps and taught as a finance professor at Drexel University. He earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago and graduated magna cum laude with a BS from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Wesley is founder of Alpha Architect, an asset management that delivers affordable active exposures for tax-sensitive investors. He has published four books including: “Quantitative Value,” “DIY Financial Advisor,” “Embedded” and his newest book “Quantitative Momentum.” He is a contributor to the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and the CFA Institute.

The topics are his books Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner’s Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio with Wes Gray:

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Ep. 515: Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Importance of consistent marginal improvements
  • Understanding a client’s drivers
  • Benefits the economy, society, and the world
  • Randomness is everything
  • Discretionary traders
  • Losses are statistically inevitable
  • Holy grails in trading
  • Behavioral biases
  • Volatility as measuring risk
  • Exploiting vs. Exploring
  • Tail risk premia vs. Pure alpha
  • Behavioral economics
  • Systematic trading
  • Price action
  • Benchmark selection
  • Time period selection
  • Markets teach humility
  • Time management

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Trend Following Thinking with Houston Rockets Data

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Mike,

Happy holidays!

The Houston Rockets are attempting a historical amount of 3-point attempts this season. On December 17th the Rockets broke an NBA record attempting 61 3-pointers. They broke their own record of 50 3-point attempts set on Nov 25. In four of their last five games the Rockets have attempted 40+ 3-pointers.

I attached a shot chart from the 61 3-point attempt game. The chart clearly distinguishes the Rockets from their opponent. It is apparent the Rockets strategy is to attempt a high percentage short range shot or a lower percentage but higher value 3-pointer. The mid-range shot clearly has a lower expected outcome when factoring the lower percentage and 2 point value. It appears the Rockets are operating near an “efficient frontier.”

I believe you would like this article from 2014 describing the Rockets GM using his NBA D-League to test common assumptions and biases.

Scroll down on this article to see the Rio Grande (D-League team) shot chart and compare how similar it is to the Rockets.

I thought you’d find this as interesting as myself. Observing my beloved Chicago Bulls go the opposite direction is almost as maddening as their lack of intellectual curiosity.

Trying to stay warm,
[Name]

Thanks! More on Thinking for a living here.

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Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Remembering self vs. Experiencing self
  • How the measures of happiness are being implemented into public policy
  • How failure to accept one’s losses can lead to risk-taking in trading
  • Crowd behavior relating economic bubbles
  • Why capitalism is largely driven by optimism
  • Behavioral economics affecting the trading world
  • Monkeys and humans
  • The monkey economy
  • The endowment effect
  • G.I. Joe fallacy
  • Discipline and practice
  • Solo and group practice
  • Flow state
  • Social motivation
  • The late birthday rule
  • 10,000 hours of practice
  • Nature vs. nurture
  • Brain plasticity
  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at data
  • The basis of decision making

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Ep. 513: John Galt Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
John Galt Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
John Galt Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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My guest today is Ayn Rand. Rand is best known for her two best selling novels, “The Fountainhead” and “Atlas Shrugged.” Michael plays two clips of Donahue interviewing Rand. Rand is controversial, but her thinking is accurate and clear. She breaks down altruism, government regulation, free market, monopoly, God, feminism, terrorism, and many more topics. You may not agree with her on all points, but there is inspiration to be taken away from her passion and to-the-point thinking.

The topic is Objectivism.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Altruism
  • Government regulation
  • Acting on faith
  • Living by emotion, not reason
  • Women’s rights
  • Religion
  • Monopoly
  • Spending money on the un-gifted minds rather than the gifted
  • A “me” society
  • Definition of a dictator

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Who is John Galt?
Who is John Galt?