The long delay was due to working, moving, broken laptop, tests and the list goes on. The good news is I have “Linchpin: Are you Indispensable?” and “Unlimited Power”, finally finished waaay longer than I had originally planned though… So now I am wondering what is next on the to do list? Happy new year by the way and talk shortly hopefully.
All the best,
[Name]
After reading those both you don’t feel like you have an answer?
Listener: Michael, Just found your podcast and I’m really enjoying it.
Covel: Thanks! Why do you like it? Starting steps for more? Go here.
Listener: Why do I like your podcast? If you are actually interested, here is a long answer to a short question:
I have two bachelor degrees (including electrical engineering) and have worked in many fields – air traffic controller, test engineer, applications engineer, marketing, sales, etc. At about age 40 I went back to school and got a masters in operations research and finally found my calling in the analytics field.
Currently I work as a one man analytics department for a medium size credit union doing whatever analytical modeling and reporting work is required – retail credit risk recently.
My experience is that most useful models help an executive make incrementally better decisions at the margins – not huge homeruns every time… but that is enough to be really valuable. In my work with analytics I find that even sophisticated people want to put too much faith in a math model and they expect it to always be 100% correct in answering any possible question. They pour all their spoken and unspoken expectations and hopes into a model and expect that it will be like some computer from Star Trek that thinks for itself and can solve any problem posed.
So, I’ve been in the messy proverbial trenches of day-to-day business analytics which shades my opinion of too good to be true investing approaches. I don’t do any work with investing on a professional basis but I enjoy reading about the topic with the hope of improving my results by a percent point or two over the long haul. I’m not really an adherent to the efficient market theory because simple observation of stock market behavior doesn’t really match the theory.
But, I’ve always been a mostly buy and hold type investor for my personal retirement money because I haven’t seen anything that made sense as a way to particularly outperform except perhaps factor tilt towards value or small cap. Most evidence seems to show that active investment on the whole underperforms.
However recently I’ve become interested in the momentum/trend following approach after reading Wesley Grey’s book DIY Financial Advisor. In fact listening to your interview of Wes Grey is how I got turned on to your podcast. The whole momentum approach is attractive because it seems pragmatic, evidence based and systematic and might provide that incremental edge I’ve been pursuing. In particular I like the potential for reducing tail risk and the big draw downs.
I’ve only listened to a few episodes but I enjoy the podcast because it is educational and because it is interesting to hear different takes on trend following from both you and your practitioner guests.
Sorry for the long email and thanks for the links. I will certainly be tuning in on a regular basis.
By the way, I [forgot to take] the opportunity to really thank you for your multiple initiatives (trend-following website, books and podcasts…) The quality of the interviews and content is really amazing, and your drive to dig deep and to share your understanding with your audience is really great and addictive. As a young retail trader (successfully doing it since 2 years) and entrepreneur I have the impression as if I gained years of experience by “just” reading and listening to what you produced. As you and your guest said during one of your latest podcasts, surrounding yourself with virtual mentors (Steve Jobs, Disney…) and doing your homework is an extremely important step too in the bumpy road of an entrepreneur.
Discovering you and your guests is an important milestone and great moment for me!
We can never stand in the way of market moves – nobody is big enough aside from those with the deepest of all pockets and even then their luck may just run out?
However the sheer stupidity of market reactions continues to the point that I believe most market participants simply are not accepting we are living in a different World following Trumps win and Brexit.
Take today’s move lower in the Pound [ To be fair a small move lower in the Far East on headlines that May will be outlining her case for a hard Brexit shortly] – The weekend news is quite possibly the most bullish news I’ve seen for Sterling in my 30 year career trading fx markets. Here’s – for dummies – what has really been said over the weekend.
Picture of Fifty Pound Notes by Images Money; CC. Should you Follow the Trend?
Trump – I will immediately put a sizeable trade deal in place with the UK – front of the que as I am a huge believer in Brexit and as the World’s largest market the U.S will offer Britain free access on favourable terms which will boost jobs, investment and prosperity in the UK massively. As far as Europe is concerned they can go screw themselves – I am not on the same page as Merkel on anything – Europe is heading for a disaster and I am already thinking about tariffs on German products in the U.S. – BMW for example.
Meanwhile the UK government announces that it may slash UK taxes to play hardball with Europe – meaning vast increases in UK competitiveness versus Europe which means anyone else clinging on to the pipe dream that business will leave the UK and relocate to Europe – a socialist / anti-entrepreneurial cesspit of high taxes and bureaucracy then for God’s sake wake up and smell the coffee. That leaves the UK as in its strongest position for decades with the prospect of not only globally driven growth and exports surges but as a safe haven for when Europe falls to pieces and likely to see massive currency inflows into the UK.
It doesn’t get any better than this for the UK which is why my targets for Sterling over the next 3 years are very simply 0.2 for Euro / Stg and 2 for cable – easy peasey – and that’s extremely conservative.
Am I long? No I’m short Sterling right here because the price action is giving no reason to back these views at all – but when it does we will flip that is for sure. Never trade my view or opinion as many of you know but if I’m right then the price action should confirm and the Pound against the Dollar needs to break at least 1.35 to show signs of life.
Meanwhile – for me – quite possibly the second best trade out there is selling the DAX. Global imports on German goods, Germany picking up the bill for a disintegrating Europe and the demolition of German values in future years only point to one direction for the German stock market. I look for a long slow move to 6000 in the Dax with the first signals this move is underway coming when it breaks 10,500 without making a new high in this particular cycle.
And as for the market clinging on t0 2010-2015 “type” solutions with bad news is good news for stocks – just remember when the shit hits the fan – what QE? Trump is a free marketer and if markets need to head a long way lower – then that’s where they should be!
Please enjoy my monologue Take the Lid Off with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
Please enjoy my monologue Another Mega Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Episode. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
Love your podcasts! I listen to them every day on my way to my day job. They have provided me with an endless source of reading material and research projects. Currently reading everything I can find on Dr. Van Tharp. His work has already given me a few ah-ha moments. Wonderful stuff. Keep up the good work.
