I just wanted to send you a thank you. I walk about 4 miles each morning while listening to your podcasts from iTunes. I have been listening for about 6 months and I have been able to get through about 1/2 of them so far. I am never tired of listening and really appreciate your guests.
I take “Trend Following” to heart. I actually came up with a trend following method before listening to you. As I was figuring it out and looking for more ideas… I came upon you. Great! I use price as my focus. I look for recent activity rather than waiting on predictive, from historical data, methods.
I know that you are not really keen on inter-day trading, but that is what I do. In defense I trade futures not equities, giving me more leverage for trading and quicker movements because of it. Out of the market at the end of each day. I am serious about stops, never violating them, and only trade when a trend has been established.
I have been more successful in my trading than I have ever been in the past since deciding the market will kill me if I try to challenge it. I have blown up two accounts so I am a bit gun shy about thinking I “know” anything regarding the market. I now only join the winning side, kind of like the Switzerland of trading. No worries about the tail or the head, only trade for the fillet.
Thanks again,
Dan DeLave
Long Beach, CA
Thanks!
But that day trading… to me that is a business for Jim Simons, Toby Crabel and JPM.
My guest today is Ken Blanchard, an author and management expert. His writing career spans over 60 books with his most successful being “The One Minute Manager” selling over 13 million copies. “The One Minute Manager” was first self published by Ken and his co-author and released in 1982. It quickly sold over 20,000 copies with no publicity, giving them a leg up when they were ready to negotiate publishing deals. Ken’s students span all backgrounds from large companies to entrepreneurs. His books have been translated into 40+ languages and the lessons and training he provides translates to all ages in all countries. Ken’s dad was an admiral in the Navy. He gave up a career on Wall Street to join the Navy and fight on the front lines of WWII. He taught Ken invaluable leadership qualities that he passes on throughout his books and in his training.
The topic is his book The One Minute Manager.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Seagull managing
Assumed constraint
Self leadership
Power of constant learning
Vulnerability in leadership
“The key to successful leadership today is influence, not authority.” – Ken Blanchard
I thought you’d enjoy this email I got from client today who is a member of my monthly [Name] Sports [Name] service… he’s only been on board two weeks, so I don’t know much about him, but I get a feeling he thinks Bitcoin will always go higher… enjoy:
“Steve, I will not be renewing my subscription at the end of this month. I am focusing on investing my money in Bitcoin for a better ROI. Thank you for your service.
David”
Oh well… Happy Holidays and have a great New Year… keep up the fantastic work with your podcast!
My main frequently asked questions page is here, but this is another page of questions in from readers:
Q: I’m huge fan of the podcast and I’ve read Trend Following and The Complete TurtleTrader. The idea of trend following, as a trading strategy, resonates with me. Trading all markets and trading human behavior, so to speak, without worrying about the impossible business of predicting future outcomes, is a strategy that makes sense to me. I want to be able to cut out the noise, ignore the fed, prevent emotional decision making, avoid analysis paralysis, but still be able to identify “cheap and hated” sectors where the best money is made. Trend following might help me do these things. What I’m unclear on is what it takes to create a Trend Following system as an individual rookie investor. I’m sick of pitches on “proprietary systems” that beat the market. They all spin a good story. I don’t want to be told what and when to buy and sell. Would the flagship system show me to how to be a trend follower or just give me access to “Covel’s secret system.” I know Michael Covel knows his sh–, but I’m tired of “secret systems.” Has Michael Covel devised a way to sharpen the trend following learning curve? Or is he, in the end, selling recommendations? A:Flagship is not recommendations. Read more here on how to build a trend following system. See all links in the footer of each page too.
Q: Michael, I just want to say I’m an avid listener and fan and of your podcasts. Please, keep on doing what your doing. Ever since I started listening to you a few years ago I’ve been hooked, I guess even obsessed with the idea of trend following. It just makes sense. I’ve always been a closet financial enthusiast who enjoys learning, listening, and observing the market place. However, I’ve always felt like an outsider largely because I’m immersed in a career that has nothing to do with finance or what I’m truly passionate about. I just turned thirty and have been struggling with the internal battle of whether or not I should end what has been comfortable and familiar to me to take a stab at what I know I want to pursue a career in. I was wondering if you’d be able to offer me some advice? How does a guy, like myself, a real bitch-ass-go-getter, make the leap? I know I’m not the smartest person. I’m not a mathematician or a quant. I don’t have a bachelor’s degree in economics or have worked in the financial industry. I’m just a a young guy who works hard and wants to surround himself with smart and intellectually engaging people established in the CTA space. How do I get involved? It’s a question that’s been in the back of my mind for a while now. A: Best path:
Q: I have just recently come across your website and very interested in knowing a it more about your Trading System package. I have viewed your entire website and the Flagship. I am from Australia, and have been studying numerous hours for the last 6-7 years to find something that is going to work for me, so I can trade the markets and become profitable, but until today still nothing is working for me. It feels like I am going round in circles…I have studied cycles and cyclical analysis and astrology but still have trouble making money, using these methods for trading. By using your Trend Following system and knowledge, [is this] going to help me become profitable? And if so, can you please give me some more information on how your system works and what is involved in learning it. Please provide as much information as possible for me to understand your system. Also what are the steps involved in learning your method? A: Read here and here.
Q: I have read and viewed all of your links and information on all the pages. As I have done so for the last few days before emailing you. Thanks. With me having no knowledge of your trend following program nor no knowledge in trading your way. Is it easy basic to learn and pick up? As I am only 28 years old. And what is the time frame going to be for me to learn the system/knowledge and starting to use it? Eg: 3 months, 1 year etc…? Is there any possibility you can send me a few pages of what is involved in the course so I would be able to see what it looks like and so I can see if it’s going to be suitable for me to understand and follow? How does trend following get used? Using normal shares, CFD’s, futures, options etc.? The reason why I ask all of these questions is because I have lost a lot of money trading mainly by CFD’s and not sure if I should change career paths completely. But then again I have always wanted to become a stock market trader and have been interested in the markets since I was young. I don’t want to give up on a goal I have wanted to achieve, but then again I want to be sure that this is going to be profitable and will make me money. I have studied for nearly 7 years, been trying to find answers and I want something that is going to work for me once and for all. Also does the trend following package get sent to my door? A: Digital delivery. No issues. You can trade ETFs, Leaps options or futures. It will be a choice. No CFDs are used. Complete beginners are my clients, many much younger than you. Age is not an issue. I give extra resources for beginners beyond trend following too. Most beginners can learn in less than 90 days. I don’t send out a few pages as that would tell you nothing. But as you can see with links (here and here) provided I go the extra mile to describe.
Q: I have considered many times to buy your flagship program. I have read many of your books. My views on finance are shaped by the likes of popper, Hayek, Taleb, Kanheman etc. So I just want to know if any of your clients are in India whom I can talk to clear my apprehensions. Please help me to take the final step. A: I recently improved the Flagship definition description here. Take a read. In terms of testimonials I do provide 80 pages, but I don’t send random client data out. If my clients give me nice words, I post them.
Q: I just finished “Trend Following” and I’ve been trading for 3 years and this book is exactly what I’ve been discovering the hard way on my own. I’d like to thank Mr. Covel for his insights. I’m interested in the Flagship Program but I’m also using [name]. I’m debating between [name] courses and the Flagship simply because [he] uses [name] so much that it really takes a lot of the excess programming logic out of it for me. I know [name] is COT/Cycle based but he has very specific entry/exit and trend following rules as well. In the FAQ it says, “All systems can be automated” I’m just curious how much excess work this requires on my end? I’m not great at code but I’ve already built multiple systems and I’m not afraid to get my hands dirty and put the hours in, but reinventing the wheel doesn’t sound fun. I’m just wondering how much help we get when going to build our own automated systems off of the statement. I’m also wondering what happens if I get stuck coding my system? Where do I turn? This is pretty much the deciding factor for me at this moment so I’m hoping you can shed a bit of light on this subject to aid my decision. A:Read.
Q: I am one of the many followers of your work. I will begin by saying “I am going to become a Trend Following Trader” and I want your help in doing so. I have read your books and I am convinced Trend Trading is by best opportunity to be a successful trader. I have listened to almost every podcast you’ve produced. I will be glad to answer any questions you may have about my background to help you help me determine if I am ready or to help me get ready. I hope that makes sense. A: First steps, here, here, here. Everyone starts there regardless of background.
Q: Assuming that I decide to quit my day job “working for the man” and become a trader, how do I get access to the markets? How do I do research? Do I need to have access to real-time and historical data? A: You will need a broker and you will need market data (not real time). I help understand on both issues with recommendations.
Q: Michael would probably crush me for asking this, but I’ll ask it anyway: Is trend following a full time job? It is a big commitment and I’d like to know if it can be done part time? A: You can be part-time. 100%. You will not be day trading. You can trade using daily or weekly closing prices. No other strategy allows this.
Q: The podcasts are very educational. I have only listened to about 80 of them and while I enjoy them enormously, they mostly dive into the human nature. I didn’t hear much about the specifics on trends in the markets. Do I need to buy Michael’s entire system to be able to understand the trends? A: I give away a ton of free resources, but if you want to go fast and take advantage of my best work my Flagship is the best bet.
Q: Michael, you’ve opened my eyes to the world of trend following, thank you. Your books are fantastic, podcast informative, and I can only imagine that your trend following system will be inline with your other products. I’m writing to find out if your system might be the catalyst for my financial planning practice. I’m 27 and for the last two years I’ve been working with a large financial institution as a financial advisor. I sell my companies products and I repackage their investment process (predominately fundamental) for my clients. But I think I can do better. I’ve always toyed with the idea of going independent (becoming an RIA instead of an IAR) but I’m not confident in the systematic trading that I’ve built on my back-testing program. Would your system provide a solid foundation so I can bring my customers trend following? I’d probably heavily manipulate whatever you provide, and I need to be sure that I can bring this down to the retail investor. For example, What’s the smallest account the system can handle? A:Read.
Q: I should really introduce myself properly. I was a CEO and shareholder of an investment bank in the Middle East (I’m also a UK chartered accountant and a lawyer). I am now retired (53 not 73) and living in Singapore. I have made millions for myself trading FX but I use a sniper approach (don’t laugh). Very simply put I wait till price hits the most significant support and resistance areas (on weekly charts) and then just assume [the] probability is it will reverse direction. I then observe price action and divergences in the shorter time frames and swing the other way if it all stacks up. However, my positions are very large. Usually up to $15 million. The approach I use is obviously discretionary but I suppose I could try to code it (not sure how this could be done as the support and resistance lines are a visual check). I’m interested in your products because I have a 22-year-old son who wants to get into trading and investment full time and I want him to start his education with the right approach and the right people. You know very well there a lot of ‘useless’ trainers and systems out there in the market. Which brings to the subject of the ‘rules’. Are you providing the actual program codes? A:Read.
Please enjoy my monologue Bitcoin, Trend Following and Taking Losses with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Bitcoin
Cryptocurrency
Volatility
“There is only one side to the Bitcoin market and that is not the bull side or the bear side but the right side.” – Jesse Livermore [Michael Covel inserting the word bitcoin]
My main frequently asked questions page is here, but this is another page of questions in from readers:
Q: I read your book, “Trend Following” and I liked it very much. I started trend following before I even knew it was a thing. In the beginning of my trading experience I made a good amount of money trend following stocks but it quickly fell apart and led to huge losses. I don’t make very much money but in a few months I lost like 2k. At which point I came to the conclusion that it doesn’t work for stocks. I gave up and just use the old blue chip buy and hold. I suppose if it ever dramatically dropped I would sell but I think that’s not really trend following, it’s blue chip buy and hold and stocks seems more like a savings account than anything. It was a crushing blow that it didn’t work and basically killed my dreams. I found out about Forex through the book and started trading it a couple of weeks ago. I like it better than stocks and thought trend following might work there since it would appear that there are strong trends. However, I lose even more money in Forex. Not to be a downer but I’m not convinced that trend following works at all. But who knows maybe there is some market somewhere that trend following would for but I haven’t seen it. If I set my stops small I don’t lose much per trade but I rarely gain money and the small losses add up. If I set my stops large to get around volatility I can make money but it usually turns against me and a small gain is a huge loss in a heartbeat. Who knows maybe there is some voodoo magic involved? Have a nice day and your book was very entertaining. A: Thanks for the feedback. Some resources for skeptics:
Q: I am a follower of yours for several years now since back in the day I read your book Trend Following. In one of your previous podcasts you said something in those lines: that a true trend following system does not require charts or looking at charts. Every aspect of the system can be systematized. This struck me. I totally believe it right. Unfortunately, most systems these days requires looking at charts and charts patterns. So I wonder if you know some trend following systems that do not require charts? And which are they? I know that the [name] system can qualify as one. But are there others? A: My Flagship product does not require charts. If a trend following system “requires” charts its not trend following.
Q: Thank you for sending me the 2 DVDs which I received recently. I find the interviews and information very motivating. I am interested to purchase the system, but would firstly like to have a better understanding of what will be included in the package. From a review of the Flagship vs Standard package there are various manuals and DVDs. My questions:
1. Is there a software program included in the package which can be used to assist in making trading decision?
2. If no software is included, will the manual teach me to develop the software program?
3. Since there are hundreds of pages in various manuals, are there standard Trend Trading templates for use?
4. From your students feedback, what is average time needed to develop a fully functional Trend Trading System.
Thank you for your time and appreciate receiving your response. A: Answers:
1. All decisions are derived from rules we provide. Those rules are easily understood. A computer and or third party software helps to automate, but it’s only following the decision-making of the rules. One could of course execute those rules with pencil/paper, but automation makes life easier. We help clients with third party software options/advice, but we provide the most important part of good trend following in Flagship–the logic.
2. You will not develop software. There are many third party apps, many, that you can put rules we teach into.
3. There are base/standard rules. The pages included are mostly examples, reinforcements, lessons, psych issues, etc. Not 100s of pages of rules.
4. You will have a full trend following system once you become a client. Learning can take place in as few as 6 weeks (rough guide).
Q: I have been trading stocks for 10 years now and after reading tons of books, among Darvas and other, I came across you and your trend following. As a small investor, I have been looking at ETF’s that I can invest in. I have found the Hull tactical US ETF, but are there any more? I wanted to buy some of Dunn but his and several more once are just for institutions or for big money traders, and I’m not there yet. I have a Masters Degree in Civil Engineering and Bachelors in Economics and been working within the consulting business and energy [sectors]. But now I know that this (trend following) is what I want, so I wonder if you have any tips or contacts? Or maybe talk a bit about it in your pod! A: I don’t directly promote trading managers, or follow all of their products, but there are many “names” across my books and podcast. Also, for those clients that want support, education and a system to trade, my Flagship offering is very popular.
Q: I would like to inquire about the trend following training program especially on the premium flagship system + training. I am only interested in currencies and I have been trading the spot forex market for about a year now, but I have never traded fx futures or fx options so far. My question is do you have training on trend following system that is only for forex trading? I have read through your web page on premium flagship training and you mentioned that currencies (fx) is one the markets covered in this training but then you also mentioned that the instruments/system used is for ETFs, leaps options and futures, then what about forex trading? I am really interested to join the trend following training program if you can have it specialize for Forex trading. By the way I have also read through the amazing Turtle Traders stories, but may I ask [if] any one of the successful turtle traders are major Forex trader[s]? I hope you can enlighten me on this issue and I look forward to your favorable reply. A: You can use futures, leaps or ETFs to trade currencies (FX). Currency markets can be traded across those 3 markets. I don’t recommend the heavily hyped FX market alone (that is pushed by brokers online). Trade on regulated exchanges. Better. Yes, you can be a trend following trader on currencies, but why limit yourself to currencies alone? Diversification is the free lunch and you need to take it. Note: All trend followers trade currencies, FX, Forex or whatever you want to call it.
Trend Following on Stocks
One of the great myths regarding trend following is that it does not work with stocks. That is wrong thinking. Trends in stocks are no different than trends in currencies, commodities, or futures. Chesapeake Capital, Jerry Parker’s trend following firm, for example, has adapted its system to stock trading. Parker says his system works well with stocks, particularly stocks in outlier moves that are in single industries. He adds:
“Our expertise [is] in systematic trend following or model development. So maybe we trend follow with Chinese porcelain. Maybe we trend follow with gold and silver, or stock futures, or whatever the client needs. We’re trading these great systems, and testing, and making sure what we do has worked in the past. And being disciplined, and unemotional, and applying our methods to the futures markets, but limiting our trading to this one group of markets. We need to look at the investment world globally and communicate our expertise of systematic trading.”
Bruce Terry, a disciple of Richard Donchian, dismisses out of hand that trend following is not for stocks:
“Originally in the 1950s, technical models came out of studying stocks. Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) applied these to futures. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, stocks were quiet and futures markets took off. That is how the CTA market started. It has come full circle. People are beginning to apply these models to stocks once again.”
I am reminded of the opening line from a 1979 article from “Managed Account Reports” that I found in research:
“Trading stocks and commodity futures by means of trend following techniques is an art with a long history.”
