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Feedback in:

My biggest challenge with trading is waiting too long to cut my losses on my bad investments. I look forward to learning more about trend following, to be honest, I have read your book and listened to a number of your podcasts, but I am still unable to give a short, comprehensive definition of trend following. One quick question, I have often heard it is good to be a contrarian investor and go against the crowd, is this the opposite of trend following?

Thanks again,
John A.

This is trend following:

• Exact rules for selecting your tracking portfolio.
• Exact rules for entering your trades at the right time.
• Exact rules for exiting your trades with a loss.
• Exact rules for exiting your trades with a profit.
• Exact rules for how much money to bet on each trade.

Also read.

Also see my FAQS.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Larry Hite, a hedge fund manager, who, along with those like Ed Seykota, is one of the forefathers of system trading. He has been profiled and recognized as one of the best in the industry in numerous major international publications. He co-founded Mint Investments in 1981. By 1990, Mint had become the largest Commodity Trading Advisor in the world in terms of assets under management. In 1990, Jack Schwager dedicated a chapter of his bestselling book, Market Wizards to Hite’s trading and risk management philosophy.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

• “Don’t bet your deli to win a pickle.”
• Crypto and trend following
• The asymmetric option of David Ricardo’s golden rules
• Buy, sell, and bet the correct way
• A system where you cut your losses and let your winners run on
• The historic trend following performance of 2022
• Larry’s dyslexia

Mentions & Resources:

• Larry Hite
• Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
• David Ricardo
• Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
• Warren Buffett
• Goldman Sachs
• Paul Tudor Jones

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Listen on Stitcher.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

Feedback in:

I’m definitely attracted to the simplicity of what you’re teaching. My major question is this: You’ve mentioned that day trading is garbage, but if the stock market is fractal, why wouldn’t trend following work on a shorter timeframe? I’ve been following Tim Sykes and Nate Michaud for quite a while now, and both of them do very well with short-term trading.

Thanks Mike, and have a great day!

Trend following is one strategy. Day trading is something else. Fractal or not, two different philosophies, two different strategies and two different sources of alpha.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue You’re Really Up Sh** Creek with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Listen on Stitcher.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Was thinking about lower time frames.

I know you don’t agree to apply trend following techniques to lower time frames, less than daily but, was thinking about the fact that the markets are fractal (Bill Dreis FWA, etc.).

Considering that being true, what would be the problem to apply a trend following technique (Turtle, FWA, etc.) to lower time frames, for example an hourly chart?

If the fractal idea keeps valid, then the annual results would be monthly results or even weekly results (15% per week, etc).

Do you know if someone studied trend following techniques on lower time frames? And what do you think about that in terms of fractal behavior? Why not use lower time frames to get bigger and faster results?

I really think that, due to the fractal behavior of markets, trend following can be applied to intraday charts as well.

Would like to hear from you the reason why trend following is only for long term trading.

Thank you,
Joao P.

Intraday is horseshit unless you are Citadel, Simons, JPM, etc. You are not them. So, no, I don’t agree. You should find out how you came to have such a wrong view.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Michael,

If the pandemic has taught me anything it’s that any serious person cannot put their full faith and trust in the system.

I work in Commercial Real Estate Finance and over the past few months I believe I’m seeing the unraveling of the zero interest rate environment in front of my very eyes. My first 4 years were like shooting fish in a barrel, even during the peak of COVID uncertainty. You just couldn’t miss so long as you focused on the obvious asset classes, but now all of the originators I work for have deals falling out left and right and team revenue targets continue to be downward adjusted. This new reality coupled with the constant stream of Jim Cramer and CNBC that blasts right into our cubicles and I would say things are starting to look pretty bleak. However, I’ve listened to you for a few years now and realize this is simply another trend following opportunity, but I’ve pushed off jumping in because I was always too afraid of not having the perfect system to start.

As I’ve quickly wised up to the fact that this past bull market was largely manipulated, I no longer find myself comfortable sitting back and having Yellen or Powell or Biden or whoever give me a foot massage and tuck me in at night. I’ve been convinced by the research and interviews you’ve provided, and the overall idea of trend following doesn’t seem far fetched whatsoever. Knowing that my system can’t be perfect from the jump was honestly going to start by using the “Rules” outlined in Chapter 5 of The Complete TurtleTrader. Is there any advice you could provide to someone pivoting from typical index fund buy-and-hold to trend following?

Yes. Read here and here.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I have now been reading in your book for the last week (first two chapters). So far I like the book. Especially that the book have started getting me to think about what a trend is, and how I have traded earlier in life. I can recall several deals where I have missed gains in the range 90-200%, because I chickened out a few days before. So at the moment, trading is limited until I am able to put my new trend strategy onto paper and action. This brings me to what my biggest challenge with trading. In general my biggest issue is psychology, emotions and lack of control. So at least I know what I need to work with to improve in the big picture. I will look forward to complete the book, and follow your mini course.

Best Regards
Simon L.

Keep going. Keep digging.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.