“Any serious person cannot put their full faith and trust in the system…”

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Michael,

If the pandemic has taught me anything it’s that any serious person cannot put their full faith and trust in the system.

I work in Commercial Real Estate Finance and over the past few months I believe I’m seeing the unraveling of the zero interest rate environment in front of my very eyes. My first 4 years were like shooting fish in a barrel, even during the peak of COVID uncertainty. You just couldn’t miss so long as you focused on the obvious asset classes, but now all of the originators I work for have deals falling out left and right and team revenue targets continue to be downward adjusted. This new reality coupled with the constant stream of Jim Cramer and CNBC that blasts right into our cubicles and I would say things are starting to look pretty bleak. However, I’ve listened to you for a few years now and realize this is simply another trend following opportunity, but I’ve pushed off jumping in because I was always too afraid of not having the perfect system to start.

As I’ve quickly wised up to the fact that this past bull market was largely manipulated, I no longer find myself comfortable sitting back and having Yellen or Powell or Biden or whoever give me a foot massage and tuck me in at night. I’ve been convinced by the research and interviews you’ve provided, and the overall idea of trend following doesn’t seem far fetched whatsoever. Knowing that my system can’t be perfect from the jump was honestly going to start by using the “Rules” outlined in Chapter 5 of The Complete TurtleTrader. Is there any advice you could provide to someone pivoting from typical index fund buy-and-hold to trend following?

Yes. Read here and here.

Filed under Trend Following