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“I can’t find a good profitable strategy…”

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Hi,

I have been trading for 2 years. I only paper traded without my personal capital.

I struggle with strategy. I can’t find a good profitable strategy that I can make profits with. Now I understand that in social media, there is no great strategy for me.

I have discipline. I know risk management. I can control my emotions, but I think the only thing that is holding me back is strategy.

I ordered your book, Turtle Trader. I am starting to read it.

I wish I could find a great strategy that actually works for me.

Thanks.

I can help. See links below.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Two Coaches. One Win. Two Standards.

I want you to look at two postgame moments. Both coaches once led LSU. Nick Saban later finished his career with a record seven FBS national championships. Brian Kelly went 34 and 14 at LSU and was fired in October 2025.

These two clips do not explain their entire careers. But they reveal two very different ways of talking about a win.

Here is Saban addressing his team after a victory:

“If you want to be happy about the results, I’m happy about the results. If you want to be happy about the process, I’m not. And if we’re gonna do what we need to do as a football team to be as good as I wanna be and as we wanna be, then that process is not good enough. So if you think because you won, you don’t have to change, you got another thing coming.”

Now here is Kelly answering reporters after LSU’s 20 to 10 win over Florida on September 13, 2025, citing his team’s record in night games at Tiger Stadium:

“That football team just worked their tail off to get an SEC win, and you wanna know what’s wrong. You know what? You’re spoiled. You’re spoiled. This team is 17 and 1 at night.”

Two days later, Kelly publicly apologized to the reporter and said his own standards needed to be higher.

Both remarks followed wins. But they came in different settings. Saban was speaking to his players. Kelly was answering reporters and defending his team publicly. A coach can do both things. What these clips capture are two very different ways of responding to a favorable result.

Saban won. He is unsatisfied. Not because the scoreboard was wrong, but because a win that came from a flawed process is a warning, not a confirmation. He knows something that takes most people a lifetime to learn: a good result produced by inconsistent execution can be dangerous. It encourages you to believe the process is fine when it is not. The next time you need it to hold under real pressure, it may not.

Kelly’s public response went the other direction. He reached for the record and used it as a shield. The number said we are doing something right. The question itself was the problem.

This is one of the most seductive patterns in human psychology, and it shows up at every trading desk in the world. A win feels like confirmation. It is not. A single result is feedback, but it is noisy feedback. It cannot tell you by itself whether the decision was sound.

Think about what this means in your own trading.

You put on a trade. It wins. Your instinct says the system worked. But ask the Saban questions first. Did I size correctly? Did I enter on the signal and not ahead of it? Did I hold through the noise without overriding my stop? Did I exit when the rules said exit and not when my gut did?

If the answers are yes, you executed correctly. The win does not validate the system. That requires evidence across many trades and many market conditions. But correct execution on a winning trade is information worth having. Correct execution on a losing trade is equally worth having. The outcome is noise. The execution is the signal.

The trader who skips those questions and just takes the green number as proof has Kelly’s problem. Good months produce more confidence, bigger size, looser discipline. Bad months produce doubt and hesitation. His psychology is being driven by outcomes. He is reading noise as signal, and doing it consistently, until the day the market corrects the misunderstanding in a single trade.

The process trader asks the same five questions after every trade, win or lose. He knows that winning and executing correctly are not the same thing, and only one of them can be repeated deliberately.

Saban won a record seven FBS national championships while making process central to his coaching philosophy. Kelly finished 34 and 14 at LSU before the university concluded that the level of success it expected had not materialized. Those facts do not prove that one postgame reaction created a dynasty and the other caused a firing. They do support a narrower lesson: a favorable outcome should never stop you from examining how it was produced.

So here is the question to take into your own trading.

Not: did I make money this week?

But: did I execute correctly this week?

One question trains you to chase outcomes. The other trains you to improve execution. Over a long enough run, only one of them compounds.

Stay systematic.

P.S. Building the discipline to evaluate your execution and not just your results is one of the hardest things in trading. The Trend Following Mastery course is built on that foundation, and the Bull, Bear & Black Swan Report reinforces that thinking every month. If you’d like a purchase link for the Report, just email us at [email protected].

Sources: Nick Saban postgame remarks, context verified via YouTube clip; Brian Kelly postgame press conference following LSU’s 20 to 10 win over Florida, September 13, 2025; Kelly’s public apology, September 15, 2025; LSU Athletics announcement of Kelly’s dismissal, October 26, 2025; College Football Hall of Fame profile of Nick Saban.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1406: David Booth Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

David Booth
David Booth

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My guest today is David Booth. David is the chairman and co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors. He is a businessman, investor, and philanthropist. He is known for applying financial science to investing and advocating disciplined, long-term strategies that embrace market uncertainty.

The topic is his book Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Staying calm and embracing uncertainty in investing and life
  • Building Dimensional Fund Advisors and the small-cap investment approach
  • Market efficiency, prediction limits, and long-term investing
  • Science, behavioral economics, AI, and investment decision-making
  • Entrepreneurship, human ingenuity, and adapting for long-term success

Mentions & Resources:

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“Whenever next choppy phase comes I want to preserve gains of this bull phase…”

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Hello sir,

My biggest challenge [on trading] is drawdowns after a good performance. I tripled my account from 1st April 2023 to August 2024, but gave up 55% in next one year.

After that again I recovered till previous high but again dropped 50% now again I am at previous high, markets are good hopefully I will cross my new high and keep climbing new highs ahead.

Last 2 yrs were choppy and challenging, partially due to markets partially due to my own mistakes.

Now my major focus is: whenever next choppy phase comes I want to preserve gains of this bull phase.

Thanks and regards.

You need a system. Do you have one?


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Love the emails, love the attitude…”

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Goddamn it Covel, you’re all right!

The courses are out of the question, but I may be able to get some of the books.

Love the emails, love the attitude, thanks for sending them.

Stay strong brother.

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I suffer from shiny object syndrome…”

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Mr. Covel,

My biggest problem [on trading], I think, is I suffer from shiny object syndrome.

Following many different mentors and strategies without using one consistent approach.

Thank you for what you do,
Sean K.

You are welcome!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.