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Author: Michael Covel

Author of Trend Following and TurtleTrader.

Ep. 373: Lasse Pedersen interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Lasse Pedersen
Lasse Pedersen

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My guest today is Lasse Pedersen, a finance professor at Copenhagen Business School, principal at AQR Capital Management, and author of the new book “Efficiently Inefficient”. Pedersen earned his Ph.D. in finance from Stanford University and has over a decade of experience in the industry.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Discretionary vs. quantitative trading
  • The importance of sticking to your financial plan
  • The various investment styles of the successful
  • How reflexivity affects market prices
  • Backtesting to identify effective investment strategy
  • The role of hedge funds

“I think that good quant investment managers can really be thought of as financial economists who’ve codified their beliefs into a repeatable process. They are distinguished by their diversification, sticking to their process with discipline, and the ability to engineer portfolio characteristics.” – Cliff Asness

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“Ride the Comet”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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I don’t know if you have seen this one already. It’s from the 1999 Australian documentary Bulls and Bears, about the Sydney Futures Exchange. A trader talks about the need to “ride the comet” when staying with a winning position. I couldn’t get just the excerpt, but the quote runs from 2:00 to 2:52:

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks!

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

We Don’t All Live Forever

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Hi Michael,

Love the podcast. Just started listening going back into the archives and have found it very enlightening. I have a question with regards to a comment you made in this specific podcast (364) about shooting for average and who wants to be just average. You are speaking my language there!

What is your response to people when they say they got rich because of investing in a diversified index portfolio instead of getting rich by taking on more risk?

For example, authors of books like “Millionaire Teacher” by Andrew Hallam or even the Coffeehouse books that claim to do really well by just buying index funds and riding the market returns instead of taking on more risk shooting for higher returns.

When people challenge me on the index fund thing saying it is the only way, my response is that the authors of these books got rich (define rich right!) because they ended up saving so much of their income as opposed to gaining their wealth through market returns. Both books (more so Hallam’s) talk about being frugal and then investing. I would love to hear how you answer this question!

If you don’t have time to answer, I totally understand and will still continue to be a loyal listener…

[Name]

Just buy and hold?

But the Nasdaq was underwater for 15 years?

The Nikkei is down 50% still since 1989.

We don’t all live forever.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent chat thread about “Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?” [not accurate headline]:

Forum guest: The drawdowns are horrendous for long term trend following systems. Don’t go near them!

Covel: Chris Clarke has good insight on this podcast ep. for those that scream “drawdown” when discussing trend following.

Also, drawdown goes far beyond trend following. Consider an excerpt from PragCap:

Another way to illustrate this is if you look at something like Berkshire Hathaway. BRK has gone down 50% three times in the past (or maybe more). Once in the early 1970′s, once in 1999 and then again during the recent crisis. Of all the investors who owned BRK in 1970, how many have done better than the 20% or so return of the stock over the years by getting in and out of it in order to avoid the 50% drawdowns?

Big returns over time come with big drawdowns. Buffett has also said himself:

“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”

No wisdom there (heavy sarcasm).

My thoughts on Michael J clark of Clark Capital Management, one of the Trend Following Legends.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 372: Letting Your Systems Run with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Letting Your Systems Run with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Letting Your Systems Run with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Letting Your Systems Run with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The importance of practice and persistence in trading
  • Finding trends mathematically
  • The importance of not overriding systems
  • Being prepared for drawdowns
  • Looking at the S&P 500 as a trading system
  • Dispelling the myths of the mainstream financial world

“One of the biggest mistakes investors make is they always look up at the stars and think about how much money they’re going to make, they don’t look down first” – Kevin Bruce

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Take Responsibility: “Man in the Mirror”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Hey Michael,

Heard Michael Jackson’s “Man in the Mirror” song this morning after listening to Taylor Pearson’s 368 podcast (which was great). Anyway, I thought this was an appropriate song for a future podcast about the change a person needs to undertake to become an entrepreneur and/or start trading using a TF approach.

Hope you are well!
[Name]

Thanks Jim!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Great Content, Boring Interview!

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Hi Michael,

Love your podcast, but the [Name] interview was excruciatingly painful to sit through. He might be a great research guy, but watching paint dry is more satisfying than listening to him talk. Just my opinion, but he should stick to his investing and stay away from PR.

Just read your TurtleTrader book. Enjoyed!

Thanks,
[Name]

Thanks. Some brilliant guys can’t say it all so eloquently. I say – so what!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.