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Ep. 131: Predictions, Dreams, Fantasies with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Predictions, Dreams, Fantasies with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Predictions, Dreams, Fantasies with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Dreams and fantasies, that’s what’s on Michael Covel’s mind in Saigon today. The US stock markets have had a lot of volatility this past week. Bernanke might be moving on; there might be a replacement. QE might be ending. People are preparing for that or maybe not that. In reality, you can’t predict anything. That’s why Covel opens up today’s podcast with an old heavy metal ode to fantasy. Can you believe what your eyes are showing you? Even if you have the perspective to see beyond the fantasy, do you have a tool to make money in these volatile markets? Of course, markets go through periods, cycles of volatility. It’s nothing new. The key is, can you be detached? Can you view it as a game? Can you observe and tune it all out emotionally? It’s that kind of mindset where you’ll make the best decisions. Covel moves on to discuss a TED Talk called “We Can Predict The Next Financial Crisis” by Didier Sornette. Covel shares some beliefs with him, but as Covel opened up talking about dreams and fantasy, prediction is just the same: a fantasy. Even if you could predict the next financial crisis, we make the assumption that prediction equals profit. Even if you could predict, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to profit. Profit comes from having a specific set of rules that tell you when to buy, when to sell, and how much to buy or sell. Covel agrees with some of what Sornette says, but is anybody making money with it? Sornette says that his predictions work, but it’s not tied to real money? Sornette’s hope is that never again will there be a financial crisis that will take us by surprise, yet does anyone buy that? Human nature will now end due to his predictions? Covel thinks it sounds like a bunch of bull, and explains why. The ability to predict tomorrow is a dream. It’s not something you should be thinking about. It’s not a useful endeavor for your life. Instead of trying to predict tomorrow why not just react to what happens with the trend following way of being? React to market movements, follow along, and be prepared for the bubble, the crisis, the unforeseen 100-year flood. Trend following is the best solution for that. Prediction is just a dream.

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