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Trust, But Verify … Is Always Prudent

Feedback in:

I am currently reading “Market Wizards” and came across an interesting quote by Michael Marcus, who said, “I do believe that trend following systems are doomed to mediocrity. I believe that the era of trend following is over until and unless there is a particular imbalance in a market that overrides everything else.”

That book was written over 20 years ago. What has happened since?


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Transductive Reasoning

Feedback:

“Hi Michael, I’m sitting in a class on cognitive psychology and there is a term the professor has introduced called transductive reasoning. Here’s an example: A child hears a dog bark and then sees a train arrive. He concludes that the train comes because the dog barks. The professor told us that transductive reasoning is characteristic of children between 2 and 7 years of age. I think she could add economic and financial media blitz to her list.”

There are many to add to the list:

“Dow goes up. Economy must be improving!”

Reminds me of Pavlov. Or a little different?


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Toby Crabel’s Book – Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout

A “reader” sent me a 20mb file last night. Turns out it was a scanned copy of Toby Crabel’s book “Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout.”

toby crabel Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout PDF

Toby Crabel was kind enough to personally give me a copy, but I was surprised that this random guy would actually send me the whole copy of Crabel’s book thinking that I would go ahead and post the open range breakout PDF.

This “reader” is a jackass.

Listen to my interview with Toby for free here on the Trend Following Podcast Trading Legends Episode.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Advice on Breaking into Trend Following Firms

An email in today:

My name is [name] and I am currently a senior at Washington and Lee University in Lexington, VA. I became interested in trend following about a year and a half ago and have studied it and put it into practice over the past year. I am very interested in pursuing a career in trend following. I went through investment banking analyst interviews earlier this year and became very disenchanted with that entire industry. After that experience I absolutely know that I want to be in the trading industry. I was wondering if you could possibly pass along contact information for any of the trend following fund managers that you have interviewed/know. I believe in the system and have been trading my own capital for a few months now but I believe the experience that would come with working with a experienced trader would be invaluable. Attached is my resume, any help or advice would be greatly appreciated. Regards, [name]

Thanks for writing. If you want contact information alone, that is freely available with a few mouse clicks. However, if you want to know legitimate ways in the door, or ways to connect to truly get something out of the experience, I do provide consulting (this is capitalism after all). It’s funny, I did not exactly set out many years ago to become connected, but there is no doubt a method to my madness. If you are in school or just out of school, and are serious about finding ways to connect, I can help. Consultation is available.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

No Way Covel! Yes, Way!

I saw this:

This actually would be my one and only criticism of Covel. He makes it sound like ANYBODY can successfully create and follow a mechanical system and make money like clockwork. IMO most people are not cut out for it…The amount of discipline required is zen-like.

First, putting aside ‘trend following’, and just considering any worthwhile endeavor, people CAN & DO make anything happen in life. The Talent Code and Talent is Overrated both make a strong case against this position. Second, my book The Complete TurtleTrader is an even better response to the “everyone can’t do it” line. The story of how an actor, a musician, a drug dealer, blackjack players — novices — made millions is inspirational. I am the first one to say that the Turtle story almost seems like fiction, but it’s not.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.