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Ep. 257: Cullen Roche Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche

My guest today is Cullen Roche, the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com).

The topic is his book Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Entrepreneurism
  • Investing in yourself
  • The advantages of starting a blog
  • Why the word “pragmatic” is a word that has become central to Roche’s universe
  • Eliminating your biases
  • Why the US going bankrupt is a myth
  • The myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers
  • Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys
  • Bringing risk down to something we can measure
  • Warren Buffett
  • Hedging your bets

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Ep. 256: Mike Harris Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mike Harris
Mike Harris

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Mike Harris. Harris is President of Campbell & Company (3B+ AUM), the systematic trading firm started by Keith Campbell (Campbell was featured in Covel’s first book Trend Following). Covel and Harris discuss systematic trading in the early 70’s; education about managed futures; correlation with other markets and managers; trading diverse markets; focusing on data rather than the fundamentals; why “commodities” and “CTA” are misnomers; why Harris wouldn’t fly down to Brazil to investigate fundamental information on the coffee market; risk management, drawdowns, and taking small losses; dealing with uncertainty and helping clients to understand the uncertain nature of trading; how human emotion often gets in the way of profitable trading; the efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance; continuity and how that has been thought through at Campbell & Company; the Sharpe ratio and why it isn’t the best way to look at systematic traders; and why being defensive is central to being a great absolute return trader. For more information on Campbell & Company, visit www.campbell.com.

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campbell and co.

Ep. 255: Tyler Cowen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen

My guest today is Tyler Cowen, an American economist, columnist and blogger. He is a professor at George Mason University, where he holds the Holbert L. Harris chair in the economics department. He hosts the economics blog Marginal Revolution, together with co-author Alex Tabarrok.

The topic is economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers
  • Cowen’s early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
  • The notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes
  • Why we’re moving from the 1% to the 15%
  • “Average is over” and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first
  • Problems because of “average is over” in Singapore
  • Pure free markets
  • Thinking about why past regulations have failed
  • How computers change us
  • Globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for
  • Zero marginal product workers

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Ep. 254: William Poundstone Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
William Poundstone
William Poundstone

My guest today is William Poundstone, an American author, columnist, and skeptic. He has written a number of books including the Big Secrets series and a biography of Carl Sagan.

The topic is his book Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Claude Shannon
  • The connection between Al Capone
  • The Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry
  • Bell Labs and information theory
  • Why, when betting, if there’s a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything
  • Criticisms of the Kelly criterion
  • Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting
  • Long-Term Capital Management
  • Martingale vs. Kelly
  • Early development of the Black-Scholes formula

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fortunes formula

Timeless Edward Seykota Trading Wisdom

Posted on by Michael Covel

Please listen to my Ed Seykota podcast, but also recall some timeless Seykota wisdom:

1. “Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

2. “Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. However, if you catch on early, before others believe, you might have valuable “surprise-a-mentals”.”

3. “If you can’t measure it, you probably can’t manage it… Things you measure tend to improve.”

More.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 252: Ben Hunt Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ben Hunt
Ben Hunt

My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history.

The topic is Epsilon Theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Power of the crowd watching the crowd
  • Game theory
  • Having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds
  • The difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory
  • The Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched
  • The “common knowledge game” and the missionary
  • The island of the green-eyed tribe

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Ep. 251: Andrew Huszar Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Andrew Huszar
Andrew Huszar

My guest today is Andrew Huszar, a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program.

The topic is the direction of the Federal Reserve.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Looking at the short term
  • Black swans
  • Huszar’s history and how he came to work for the Federal Reserve
  • The changing of the banking model in the US from the 1980’s to the late 2000’s
  • Quantitative easing
  • Why Huszar ultimately left the Fed at the beginning of 2011
  • How the Fed has become over five times bigger in recent history
  • The current source of Wall Street money
  • The idea of an overly financialized US economy
  • The need for long-term structural changes in the US

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