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Tag: interview

Ep. 258: Megan McArdle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Megan McArdle
Megan McArdle

My guest today is Megan McArdle, a Bloomberg View columnist who writes on economics, business and public policy. She founded the blog “Asymmetrical Information”.

The topic is her book The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • “Trophy kids” and taking the monkey bars away
  • The idea of a regulator out there trying to guarantee our safety
  • Why the companies that make it aren’t the ones with the best strategic plan–it’s the ones that execute (and fail well)
  • The power of experimentation
  • Nobel winner Vernon Smith and experimentation
  • The idea of learning in crisis
  • How sunk costs are difficult for a large part of the population to grasp
  • Van Halen, errors, and M&M’s
  • Normative error
  • Small, manageable risks
  • Forager morality vs. farmer morality
  • A story about Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC)

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Ep. 257: Cullen Roche Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche

My guest today is Cullen Roche, the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com).

The topic is his book Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Entrepreneurism
  • Investing in yourself
  • The advantages of starting a blog
  • Why the word “pragmatic” is a word that has become central to Roche’s universe
  • Eliminating your biases
  • Why the US going bankrupt is a myth
  • The myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers
  • Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys
  • Bringing risk down to something we can measure
  • Warren Buffett
  • Hedging your bets

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Ep. 256: Mike Harris Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mike Harris
Mike Harris

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Mike Harris. Harris is President of Campbell & Company (3B+ AUM), the systematic trading firm started by Keith Campbell (Campbell was featured in Covel’s first book Trend Following). Covel and Harris discuss systematic trading in the early 70’s; education about managed futures; correlation with other markets and managers; trading diverse markets; focusing on data rather than the fundamentals; why “commodities” and “CTA” are misnomers; why Harris wouldn’t fly down to Brazil to investigate fundamental information on the coffee market; risk management, drawdowns, and taking small losses; dealing with uncertainty and helping clients to understand the uncertain nature of trading; how human emotion often gets in the way of profitable trading; the efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance; continuity and how that has been thought through at Campbell & Company; the Sharpe ratio and why it isn’t the best way to look at systematic traders; and why being defensive is central to being a great absolute return trader. For more information on Campbell & Company, visit www.campbell.com.

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campbell and co.

Ep. 255: Tyler Cowen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen

My guest today is Tyler Cowen, an American economist, columnist and blogger. He is a professor at George Mason University, where he holds the Holbert L. Harris chair in the economics department. He hosts the economics blog Marginal Revolution, together with co-author Alex Tabarrok.

The topic is economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers
  • Cowen’s early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
  • The notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes
  • Why we’re moving from the 1% to the 15%
  • “Average is over” and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first
  • Problems because of “average is over” in Singapore
  • Pure free markets
  • Thinking about why past regulations have failed
  • How computers change us
  • Globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for
  • Zero marginal product workers

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Ep. 254: William Poundstone Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
William Poundstone
William Poundstone

My guest today is William Poundstone, an American author, columnist, and skeptic. He has written a number of books including the Big Secrets series and a biography of Carl Sagan.

The topic is his book Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Claude Shannon
  • The connection between Al Capone
  • The Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry
  • Bell Labs and information theory
  • Why, when betting, if there’s a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything
  • Criticisms of the Kelly criterion
  • Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting
  • Long-Term Capital Management
  • Martingale vs. Kelly
  • Early development of the Black-Scholes formula

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fortunes formula

Ep. 253: Perry Kaufman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Perry Kaufman
Perry Kaufman

My guest today is Perry Kaufman, an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs.

The topic is systematic trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Kaufman came to the idea of 100% algorithmic trading systems
  • The difference between being systematic and being automated
  • Optimization vs. validation
  • The biggest advantages of testing
  • Why discretion is not part of Kaufman’s toolbox
  • The problem of tail events
  • Why discipline is the most important characteristic of a systematic trader
  • The “loose pants fit everyone” philosophy
  • Preparing yourself for uncertainty
  • Comparisons between risk management and risk measurement
  • The Sharpe ratio
  • High volatility trades vs. low volatility
  • Why Kaufman places equal weight on both risk management and the underlying system
  • Systematic trading in established mature markets vs. emerging markets

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Ep. 251: Andrew Huszar Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Andrew Huszar
Andrew Huszar

My guest today is Andrew Huszar, a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program.

The topic is the direction of the Federal Reserve.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Looking at the short term
  • Black swans
  • Huszar’s history and how he came to work for the Federal Reserve
  • The changing of the banking model in the US from the 1980’s to the late 2000’s
  • Quantitative easing
  • Why Huszar ultimately left the Fed at the beginning of 2011
  • How the Fed has become over five times bigger in recent history
  • The current source of Wall Street money
  • The idea of an overly financialized US economy
  • The need for long-term structural changes in the US

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