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Tag: feedback

Unlimited Power: Read It Please

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I just wanted to say thank you for writing your books. I’ve read all of them so far except for Trend Commandments.

I am also writing to you for advice. You said, “if all you think you have to do to gain an audience with one of these legendary traders is write a letter, think again.” Or something to that effect. I guess my question is, how should one go about gaining an audience with a Jerry Parker or Salem Abraham? I am going to enter into a paper trading contest and the winner at the end will receive $10K. I am a recent college graduate with a mountain of debt already so winning this contest would be a huge first step on my (hopeful) trend following career. And getting an audience with one of these traders, and possibly gaining a mentor, would help make that happen.

In the midst of this crazy political climate, I have recently gone from neutral to very conservative. This was the first profound experience I had in recent months and discovering your books was the second. Because trend following and technical analysis perfectly resemble conservative beliefs. And fundamental analysis perfectly resembles liberal beliefs, which are both flawed at their core because they both place their faith in something that is fundamentally flawed, human emotion… I am very interested in meeting Jerry Parker one day to see what he thinks about this since he is a conservative. I am seeing so many parallels between politics and trend following. I’m curious to know what you think as well. Anyway, sorry for this small political rant. Thanks again, Michael. Any advice you have is greatly appreciated!

All the best,
[Name]

Please read Seth Godin’s Linchpin and Anthony Robbins’ Unlimited Power. Those books will put you in the right frame of mind to approach anyone.

The second one worked for me 100%.

Unlimited Power
Unlimited Power

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Trend Following Resources Start Here

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I’m a relatively new listener to your podcast and wanted to thank you for the quality material you present week over week. At the end of your recent show with guest Evan Carmichael you advised listeners to reach out if they have a sincere interest in trend trading. That’s me. I left my job with Vanguard to pursue cryptocurrency investing and so far my buy and hold strategy with Ethereum has worked well… but not good enough. I see a lot of potential for various aspects of technical analysis and momentum trading to be incorporated into the strategy I’m currently developing. I would greatly appreciate any materials you can offer to help me along the way in my journey toward actualizing a real trend trading approach to this asset class.

Much obliged,
[Name]

Thanks for the feedback.

Starting steps for more? Go here.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“What is next on the to do list?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hey Michael,

The long delay was due to working, moving, broken laptop, tests and the list goes on. The good news is I have “Linchpin: Are you Indispensable?” and “Unlimited Power”, finally finished waaay longer than I had originally planned though… So now I am wondering what is next on the to do list? Happy new year by the way and talk shortly hopefully.

All the best,
[Name]

After reading those both you don’t feel like you have an answer?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Why Do You Like My Podcast?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent email exchange:

Listener: Michael, Just found your podcast and I’m really enjoying it.

Covel: Thanks! Why do you like it? Starting steps for more? Go here.

Listener: Why do I like your podcast? If you are actually interested, here is a long answer to a short question:

I have two bachelor degrees (including electrical engineering) and have worked in many fields – air traffic controller, test engineer, applications engineer, marketing, sales, etc. At about age 40 I went back to school and got a masters in operations research and finally found my calling in the analytics field.

Currently I work as a one man analytics department for a medium size credit union doing whatever analytical modeling and reporting work is required – retail credit risk recently.

My experience is that most useful models help an executive make incrementally better decisions at the margins – not huge homeruns every time… but that is enough to be really valuable. In my work with analytics I find that even sophisticated people want to put too much faith in a math model and they expect it to always be 100% correct in answering any possible question. They pour all their spoken and unspoken expectations and hopes into a model and expect that it will be like some computer from Star Trek that thinks for itself and can solve any problem posed.

So, I’ve been in the messy proverbial trenches of day-to-day business analytics which shades my opinion of too good to be true investing approaches. I don’t do any work with investing on a professional basis but I enjoy reading about the topic with the hope of improving my results by a percent point or two over the long haul. I’m not really an adherent to the efficient market theory because simple observation of stock market behavior doesn’t really match the theory.

But, I’ve always been a mostly buy and hold type investor for my personal retirement money because I haven’t seen anything that made sense as a way to particularly outperform except perhaps factor tilt towards value or small cap. Most evidence seems to show that active investment on the whole underperforms.

However recently I’ve become interested in the momentum/trend following approach after reading Wesley Grey’s book DIY Financial Advisor. In fact listening to your interview of Wes Grey is how I got turned on to your podcast. The whole momentum approach is attractive because it seems pragmatic, evidence based and systematic and might provide that incremental edge I’ve been pursuing. In particular I like the potential for reducing tail risk and the big draw downs.

I’ve only listened to a few episodes but I enjoy the podcast because it is educational and because it is interesting to hear different takes on trend following from both you and your practitioner guests.

Sorry for the long email and thanks for the links. I will certainly be tuning in on a regular basis.

You are welcome!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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• Frequently Asked Questions
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“A Big THANK YOU!”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

By the way, I [forgot to take] the opportunity to really thank you for your multiple initiatives (trend-following website, books and podcasts…) The quality of the interviews and content is really amazing, and your drive to dig deep and to share your understanding with your audience is really great and addictive. As a young retail trader (successfully doing it since 2 years) and entrepreneur I have the impression as if I gained years of experience by “just” reading and listening to what you produced. As you and your guest said during one of your latest podcasts, surrounding yourself with virtual mentors (Steve Jobs, Disney…) and doing your homework is an extremely important step too in the bumpy road of an entrepreneur.

Discovering you and your guests is an important milestone and great moment for me!

So,

A big THANK YOU!

Thanks for the passionate feedback!

Michael Covel
Michael Covel

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Should you Follow the Trend when Investing in Sterling During Brexit Negotiations?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Great rant:

Follow the Trend ……… But!!!

We can never stand in the way of market moves – nobody is big enough aside from those with the deepest of all pockets and even then their luck may just run out?

However the sheer stupidity of market reactions continues to the point that I believe most market participants simply are not accepting we are living in a different World following Trumps win and Brexit.

Take today’s move lower in the Pound [ To be fair a small move lower in the Far East on headlines that May will be outlining her case for a hard Brexit shortly] – The weekend news is quite possibly the most bullish news I’ve seen for Sterling in my 30 year career trading fx markets. Here’s – for dummies – what has really been said over the weekend.

 

Follow a trend, Invest in Sterling
Picture of Fifty Pound Notes by Images Money; CC. Should you Follow the Trend?

Trump – I will immediately put a sizeable trade deal in place with the UK – front of the que as I am a huge believer in Brexit and as the World’s largest market the U.S will offer Britain free access on favourable terms which will boost jobs, investment and prosperity in the UK massively. As far as Europe is concerned they can go screw themselves – I am not on the same page as Merkel on anything – Europe is heading for a disaster and I am already thinking about tariffs on German products in the U.S. – BMW for example.

Meanwhile the UK government announces that it may slash UK taxes to play hardball with Europe – meaning vast increases in UK competitiveness versus Europe which means anyone else clinging on to the pipe dream that business will leave the UK and relocate to Europe – a socialist / anti-entrepreneurial cesspit of high taxes and bureaucracy then for God’s sake wake up and smell the coffee. That leaves the UK as in its strongest position for decades with the prospect of not only globally driven growth and exports surges but as a safe haven for when Europe falls to pieces and likely to see massive currency inflows into the UK.

It doesn’t get any better than this for the UK which is why my targets for Sterling over the next 3 years are very simply 0.2 for Euro / Stg and 2 for cable – easy peasey – and that’s extremely conservative.

Am I long? No I’m short Sterling right here because the price action is giving no reason to back these views at all – but when it does we will flip that is for sure. Never trade my view or opinion as many of you know but if I’m right then the price action should confirm and the Pound against the Dollar needs to break at least 1.35 to show signs of life.

Meanwhile – for me – quite possibly the second best trade out there is selling the DAX. Global imports on German goods, Germany picking up the bill for a disintegrating Europe and the demolition of German values in future years only point to one direction for the German stock market. I look for a long slow move to 6000 in the Dax with the first signals this move is underway coming when it breaks 10,500 without making a new high in this particular cycle.

And as for the market clinging on t0 2010-2015 “type” solutions with bad news is good news for stocks – just remember when the shit hits the fan – what QE? Trump is a free marketer and if markets need to head a long way lower – then that’s where they should be!

The trend is your friend – but he’s a very insincere one!

Christopher Clarke
Managing Partner and CIO
Lawrence Clarke Investment Management LLP

Price action = severely underestimated by most. Listen to Chris on my show.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Thinking with Houston Rockets Data

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Mike,

Happy holidays!

The Houston Rockets are attempting a historical amount of 3-point attempts this season. On December 17th the Rockets broke an NBA record attempting 61 3-pointers. They broke their own record of 50 3-point attempts set on Nov 25. In four of their last five games the Rockets have attempted 40+ 3-pointers.

I attached a shot chart from the 61 3-point attempt game. The chart clearly distinguishes the Rockets from their opponent. It is apparent the Rockets strategy is to attempt a high percentage short range shot or a lower percentage but higher value 3-pointer. The mid-range shot clearly has a lower expected outcome when factoring the lower percentage and 2 point value. It appears the Rockets are operating near an “efficient frontier.”

I believe you would like this article from 2014 describing the Rockets GM using his NBA D-League to test common assumptions and biases.

Scroll down on this article to see the Rio Grande (D-League team) shot chart and compare how similar it is to the Rockets.

I thought you’d find this as interesting as myself. Observing my beloved Chicago Bulls go the opposite direction is almost as maddening as their lack of intellectual curiosity.

Trying to stay warm,
[Name]

Thanks! More on Thinking for a living here.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.