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Statistical Thinking 101: Where to Start?

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Dear Michael,

I have read your book ‘Trend Following’ twice. I have been totally drawn into trend following and now wish to fully adopt it into my trading. You mention about statistical thinking in your book, my knowledge on statistics is very basic and I wish to expand this. Are there any books you would recommend that I read to develop my statistical thinking.

Thank you for taking the time to read this email, you are busy so please reply only when you have the time to do so.

Kind Regards
[Name]

Poke around Google and YouTube. Many free classes starting day 1 of a class: MIT, etc.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Jim O’Shaughnessy: Successful Active Stock Investing is Hard

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Mike,

I know this is outside your strategy space, but the psychology behind this post from Jim O’Shaughnessy is fantastic.

Hope you enjoy,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 536: The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price action
  • Forecasting
  • Value investing
  • How to think about investing
  • Black swans

“You should not act as though the things that should happen will happen.” – Howard Marks

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 535: Brad Rotter Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Brad Rotter
Brad Rotter

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My guest today is Bradley Rotter, a visionary investor who has pioneered investment in many new alternative investments classes beginning with Hedge Funds in 1982 while speculating on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He traded Government Bonds for EF Hutton on Wall Street before returning to Chicago to the Board of Trade.  Bradley moved to San Francisco in mid 80’s to be close to the technology fountainhead of the Bay Area. He is best known for famous quote in 1995 “this internet thing is going to be big”. Bradley was awarded the Investor Dealers Digest Private Deal of the Year Award in 1996 for an innovative securitization which precede an IPO on Nasdaq Bradley has made numerous VC and PE investments, with a particular focus on internet and technology and spanning from hedge funds to satellites.

The topic is Bitcoin and Venture Capital.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Venture capitalism
  • Turtles
  • Efficient market theory
  • Mobile infrastructure
  • Desalination

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Famous Last Words: “No One Saw it Coming!”

Feedback in:

Michael,

I just wanted to take a moment to thank you for your work. I have read most of your books and they are exactly what I needed.

You see I am a veteran of the brokerage business (30 Years) and I have always known intuitively that something about the entire business was, and is, a lie. Analysts have no skin in the game, management doesn’t care if you make money, it’s all about assets under management that’s why they will never say sell. “Just buy more.”

You see I used to look at CFA’s as the smartest people in the room. Now I know that they are really just financial weathermen trying to predict the future. Something that can’t be done.

I have adopted for my clients a simple trend following rules based strategy, and it amazes me how hard it is to change minds. It is so simple they somehow think it can’t work. But I will keep plugging away and I know you will to.

The business needs to change even the other brokers in my office look at me like a freak when I tell them to stop listening to analyst’s and “stop buying stocks that are going down.” Old habits die very,very hard.

Just wanted to say thanks.

[Name]

The same listener wrote back the other day, almost a year later:

Michael,

As you can see we have corresponded before. I just wanted to drop you a line to tell you just how bad it is out here. As I mentioned previously I have 30 years under my belt in the brokerage business, but only in the last four or five have embraced rules based trend following.

Happily my clients that will listen with an open mind almost always say the method makes perfect sense. The problem lies with the people I work with, when I talk about having rules, following them, and being completely agnostic about what you own just make sure that what you own is going up they look at me like I have two heads. Like it is a cute parlor trick but could never work long term. Then I prove to them how much better off they and their clients would be if they would only have rules to sell what is going against them they shake their heads, agree, and forget everything I said.

My point is keep pushing these concepts when it hits the fan one of these days people are going to be destroyed because they won’t sell anything. And all my peers will be sitting with clients apologizing for not protecting the down side and saying, “No one saw it coming.” To which I will respond, “It wouldn’t matter if you had rules for selling.”

Keep it up, these ideas can change lives.

[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Sound capital management best practices…”

Feedback in:

Michael,

Before stating this, I’ll say that I’m a person who has always been buy and hold, and does NOT mind drawdowns. I lived through Black Monday, the Internet bubble, and the financial crisis, and generally just bought more when I thought things were getting near their lows (kind of a trend strategy in itself). I never sold and was happy that things were finally getting cheaper. The market has rebounded every time, and I’ve been fortunate to make what I lost and more.

Having said that, today I placed my first trend-based (price only, systematic decision) orders today with lot sizes based upon a defined and more than acceptable risk, and with trailing stops based upon volatility. There was something quite comforting about having a defined maximum risk, I must say. Also, I placed trailing stops on several other positions in my account as a function of volatility as well. All thanks to techniques I picked up from your show.

I think it was James Rohrbach (episode 17) who first caught my attention with a simple question when talking about the market. He mentioned, with respect to buy and hold, something to the effect that after a large drawdown, the market may very well come back. As true as that may be, he asked, “Is sitting through that drawdown the smart thing to do?”

Some of the trend stuff, such as intelligent bet sizing, risk management, etc., is more than just trend following. It just makes sense as sound capital management best practices. Thanks for spreading the word.

Cheers,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 534: The Swan Problem with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Swan Problem with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Swan Problem with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue The Swan Problem with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Knowledge is therapy
  • Black swans
  • Uncertainty
  • Probability
  • Global warning

“History does not glide, it leaps.” – Nassim Taleb

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.