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Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer: Propaganda

Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer, writes today:

“NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks tumbled Thursday after two disappointing economic reports renewed investors’ concerns about the pace of a recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average fell about 165 points in afternoon trading. Broader indexes also fell by more than 1.5 percent. Interest rates also fell sharply as investors flocked to the safety of Treasury bonds. The Labor Department said claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week and the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia said manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region has dropped during August.”

Sounds like a simple report from the AP, right? Nonsense. Think about the two words bolded.


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Michael Mauboussin: Untangling Skill and Luck

I have long posted white papers from Michael Mauboussin. Here is his most recent piece “Untangling Skill and Luck How to Think About Outcomes–Past, Present, and Future” (PDF).

Mauboussin also happens to be in my film Broke.

Note: Shout to Pragcap.com for the find.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Francisco J. Vaca: Second Generation ‘Turtle’

For those familiar with my book The Complete TurtleTrader you know that chapter 13 is about trader Salem Abraham. Abraham is what I call a second generation Turtle — as he was heavily influenced by Turtle Jerry Parker. Another second generation Turtle? Francisco Vaca. Vaca (who I met a few years back in Florida) has been also influenced by Richard Dennis and Paul Rabar. He reached out to me last night:

“Hi Michael, I hope this e-mail finds you well. Since you like to follow those of us that came out of C & D Commodities [Richard Dennis’ original firm]. I hope you will find interesting the interview I had with Managed Account Research, Inc…released two weeks ago.”

Thanks. Here you go (PDF).


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Swing Baby! And Keep Swinging!

Ken at Top Breakout Stocks recently made a comment here about this WSJ article. What did he say?

“Replace the word ‘strikeout’ with ‘taking a loss’ and ‘runs’ with ‘profits’ and it’s a perfect analogy for trading.”

So I decided to try it. Here is the article:

There is no easier way to get booed in baseball than to end an inning with a swing and a miss taking a loss. For as long as the game has been played, hitters have been taught to make contact and put the ball in play, but a new generation of sluggers is finding success swinging from its heels on every pitch. The negative stigma surrounding the strikeout taking a loss has been destroyed. No player exemplifies this change more than Arizona’s Mark Reynolds. Last season, he became the first player in baseball history to whiff take a loss 200 times in a single season, and now he’s on pace to do it again. Arizona has been willing to live with long walks to the dugout because of what he is able to do when he does make contact—he’s hitting .440 with 40 home runs profits when the bat meets the ball. Other notable players with this all-or-nothing approach include Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard, the Nationals’ Adam Dunn, the Rays’ Carlos Pena, Oakland’s Jack Cust and Seattle’s Russell Branyan. Each of these five has racked up 140 strikeouts losses or more this season, a feat nearly unheard of 30 years ago. Bobby Bonds’s record of 189 strikeouts losses in a season held up from 1970 to 2004, but since then, it has been passed six times, and Mr. Reynolds is just about to do it again. Run scoring Profits have also increased as the strikeout taking a loss has become more acceptable. Statistical analysis has shown the strikeout taking a loss is no worse than any other kind of out, and the trade-off for extra home runs profits is more than worth it. Dan Plesac, a two-time All Star and current MLB Network analyst, says today’s players are “more rewarded if you hit .270 and get 30 home runs profits than if you hit .310 but hit 20.”

Works!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

A Trader’s Self-Evaluation Checklist

Some key questions asked by Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. in his ‘A Trader’s Self-Evaluation Checklist’?

Are trading losses often followed by further trading losses? Do you end up losing money in ‘revenge trading’ just to regain money lost? Do you finish trading prematurely when you’re up money, failing to exploit a good day?

Do you cut winning trades short because, deep inside, you don’t think you’ll be able to make large profits? Do you become stubborn in positions, turning small losers into large ones?

Is trading making you happy, proud, fulfilled, and content, or does it more often leave you feeling unhappy, guilty, frustrated, and dissatisfied? Are you having fun trading even when it’s hard work?

Are you making trades because the market is giving you opportunity, or are you placing trades to fulfill needs — for excitement, self-esteem, recognition, etc. — that are not being met in the rest of your life?

Nice.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Bernard Drury: “An Intrinsic Part of Trading”

Bernard Drury of Drury Capital writes in his May 10 newsletter:

“While trading losses are never welcome, we know that encountering price corrections is an intrinsic part of trading these markets. As ever, [our] Program employs a disciplined approach to trade selection, position sizing, portfolio balancing, and equity protection when adverse market conditions are encountered. During a period when markets are behaving in a manner contrary to positions, [our] Program gradually reduces risk in a systematic manner. In some cases, positions in the opposite direction of the original trend may be established, even while some trades in the same sector are still positioned in the original direction. It is a dynamic process that responds continuously to changes in market conditions.”

Wise insights from a long time trend follower who I was fortunate to spend time with.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Wise Price Trading Words from William Eckhardt

From William Eckhardt:

“An important feature of our approach is that we work almost exclusively with price, past and current. One reason for this is that to make any progress in the early stages of quantitative investigation you usually have to reduce the relevant factors to one or two crucial variables. Price is definitely the variable traders live and die by, so it is the obvious candidate for investigation. The other reason is that in a system that’s making good use of price information, it is very difficult to add other information without degradation. Pure price systems are close enough to the North Pole that any departure tends to bring you farther south.”

Bill Eckhardt trader
The TurtleTrader Bill Eckhardt. Photograph from TurtleTrader.com

More from a conversation never heard on CNBC:

“Many systematic traders spend the majority of their time searching for good places to initiate. It just seems to be part of human nature to focus on the most hopeful point of the trading cycle. Our research indicated that liquidations are vastly more important than initiations. If you initiate purely randomly, you do surprisingly well with a good liquidation criterion. In contract, random liquidations will kill the best system.”

More from Pricetrader Bill Eckhardt can be found in my 2nd book.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.