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Ep. 489: Chris Voss Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Chris Voss
Chris Voss

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My guest today is Chris Voss, the author of, “Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It.” Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases. He started out working on a suicide hotline and quickly realized that his negotiating skills were applicable to all areas of life, not just hostage situations.

The topic is his book Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Aversion to negotiation
  • Negotiating skills
  • Never pretend people are rational
  • Business negotiations compared to hostage negotiations
  • Lying three times
  • “How” and “Why” questions

Mentions & Resources:

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Trend Following Feedback: Cracking the Code

Feedback in:

Michael,

I recently bought a copy of your book, Trend Following, which led me to your website and your podcasts. I stumbled across the concept of trend following several months ago when binging on the web trying to learn everything I could about investing, stocks, trading strategy, etc. I finally took some time to really start thinking about my IRA and how disappointing it was to feel like I had to trust blindly in the mutual fund recommendations from my financial advisor in order to have any hope of ever having enough money to retire or live the way I want to. I am career military, and never really had a ton of extra cash to dump into the Roth or to save, so the older I got the more I started to think how unprepared I am for retirement. I found a trend follower on the web who had a podcast and website (not you yet) which introduced me to the idea, and from there I started to follow his daily signals and try to “crack his code” using excel and downloading historical data in an attempt to develop my own system. He uses 20 day highs/lows for entry, 10 day lows/highs for exit, and an ATR based stop. This started me down a rabbit hole trying out a ton of variations of entries/exits, etc on whatever stock or ETF I thought was a viable candidate to try to find the most profitable system for each equity. What I was missing was the fundamental concepts and theoretical discussion that you provide in your book. Now I am focused on finding a robust long term trend following system to apply to any market/stock/etf using the probability and trade results distribution you illustrated in your book. I am super motivated to pursue trend following until I figure it all out. I consider myself as having above average intelligence and my Asperger’s gives me the laser focus and diligence (or stubbornness according to my wife) to put in the work to develop it and the discipline to follow it. I am currently looking at strategies using ATR, moving averages, and price highs/lows to define price breakouts, but could be off track. I don’t have any of the big trading system software packages, but I know with enough time and patience I will find the results I am looking for. I would certainly appreciate the guidance and DVD you promise to send in your podcast. I know you’re not gonna hand me all the answers on a silver platter, but I’ll take what you are offering, as every insight I can get I will take. Thanks for your help and for laboring through the long letter, take care.

Very Respectfully,
[Name]

Great feedback. Motivation for everyone. Video on the way!


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Ep. 488: Never Forget the Lessons with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Retrieving data. Wait a few seconds and try to cut or copy again.
Retrieving data. Wait a few seconds and try to cut or copy again.

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Please enjoy my monologue Never Forget the Lessons with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • How is the “price” made?
  • You will never know all the fundamentals
  • Speculation
  • Getting mad at the market gets you nowhere
  • Bull and bear markets
  • Entry and exit signals
  • 1920’s wisdom on numbers
  • Always be ready to catch that unexpected move
  • Follow the price action

“When the markets decide to deliver a cleansing flood, it comes without warning.” – Michael Covel

Mentions & Resources:

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Trend Following Requires Discipline: Stick with It!

Feedback in:

Hi Mike, I wanted to thank you again for getting me in touch with [name] so I could access the information I was looking for a few months ago. Secondly, I think you do a FANTASTIC job in getting the trend following story out there. I’ve read all of your books and agree that “price is everything.” I am listening to The Complete TurtleTrader now on audible.com. I do subscribe to [name] and use their [name] to find a list of potential stocks but then use ONLY ALL TIME NEW HIGHS as my trigger to get in. I put 5-7% into a starting position, take losses quickly and profits slowly. I began trading stocks at 19 with $9,000 that I had saved up from working a few summers for my grandfather, an antique broker. From 1989 through the crash of 2000, I ran the $9k to $297k without ever adding another dime, by buying new highs and cutting losses while pyramiding into winners. Unfortunately, after doing so well, I began to think I was smarter than the market. Big mistake! I lost $70,000 in the year 2000, and another $12,000 in 2001. Then I got divorced and had to give half of what was left to my ex. I went back to school, and used most of what was left to pay off debt. I recently graduated school, and with the $79,000 that I have left, I am now beginning to trade again. I’m sure I could get better, so I continue to subscribe to your Podcasts, and read new entries on your site regularly. I guess I have been a trend follower since 1989, also until four or five years ago didn’t know that I was, because I never knew what it was called. I just knew what was working for me. Please continue to do what you do, as you are helping us all continue to learn and get better at trading. I have yet to trade anything other than stocks, and options, but as I continue to learn and I would love to apply the strategies to ETFs and maybe even branch into futures or currencies. Thanks again! Whether you know it or not, you are helping thousands of people with your books, website, podcasts, and your accessibility.

[Name]

Thanks!

Stick with It
Stick with It

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 487: Robert Cialdini Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Cialdini's 'Pre-Suasion'
Robert Cialdini’s ‘Pre-Suasion’

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My guest today is Robert Cialdini, an American psychologist and academic. He is the Regents’ Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Marketing at Arizona State University and was a visiting professor of marketing, business and psychology at Stanford University, as well as at the University of California at Santa Cruz. He is best known for his 1984 book on persuasion and marketing, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion. It was based on three “undercover” years applying for and training at used car dealerships, fund-raising organizations, and telemarketing firms to observe real-life situations of persuasion.

The topics are his books Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion and Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Establishing trust before asking for anything
  • Rational self interest
  • Anchoring a persons perception
  • Asking for advice rather than an opinion
  • Warren Buffett’s shareholder letter
  • Environmental responsibility

Mentions & Resources:

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Ed Seykota: “Truly Amazing Stuff…”

Feedback in:

Michael, I really enjoyed your podcast with Ed Seykota (listen). Truly amazing stuff. Actually I enjoy most all of your podcasts. Thank you for your work on trend following. I practice trend following daily and long term with Dunn Capital largely because of your writings.

Best,
[Name]

Thanks for the feedback!

Ed Seykota (left)
Ed Seykota (left)

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Originally a Customer from 2001…”

Feedback in:

Michael, Thanks for all the hard work that you’ve done over the years.

I’m originally a customer from 2001. Since that time, and with persistent effort, I managed to become a portfolio manager for the systematic trading of a small family office here in Canada. Your books and podcast have provided a wealth of useful info along the way. Thanks! Please keep kicking ass.

[Name]

Yes, ass kicking is fun.

Kick Ass
Kick Ass

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.