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Ep. 932: Richard Smith Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Richard Smith
Richard Smith

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My guest today is Richard Smith. He studied mathematics at University of California, Berkeley and then earned his PhD in Systems Science from the Watson School of Engineering at SUNY Binghamton under the late Professor George Klir. Over the last decade, he has researched and developed algorithms and services that provide investors with tools to develop a systematic approach to investing.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Turtle Trading
  • Cycle Definition
  • Bitcoin Cycle
  • Presidential Cycle
  • Different Types of Cycle
  • Cycles and Human Behavior
  • Human Psychology
  • The Study of Cycles
  • Cycles and Trend Following

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Ep. 931: A Crazy Damn Year with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue A Crazy Damn Year with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“My problem is I have a time series momentum system that I use and it performs really well…”

Feedback in:

Michael,

Thanks for everything you do, I enjoy the podcasts and the books. My problem is I have a time series momentum system that I use, and it performs really well. But I don’t follow it exactly, I follow it about 50%, I would do much better if I followed it 100%. Any words of wisdom, analogies, whatever… that may help me stay more disciplined? Are there any traders who use a time-series momentum style that I can model myself after? Thanks again for your help.

Steve S

If you follow a system 50% you have no system. You apparently have a need to screw it up.

Check out Ed Seykota’s work.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“My biggest challenge is I still hold on to losing positions for too long…”

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I have had a tremendously successful year this year. Without a doubt, my best year of trading. In the past 12 months I have started looking at 20 day moving averages (dMA) and 200dMA. I have worked on 21dMA and 50dMA, too. I have found these to be very useful in identifying uptrend and downtrend ETFs. I have been graphing them, too, with new 20 day lows vs new 20 day highs.

I am confident that the crossovers of moving averages will lead to gains that will make this style of trading worth it. I have been shorting markets, when available. I try to mostly buy ETFs. I have less than half my portfolio in stocks.

My biggest challenge is two things: I use trailing stops (based on ATR) that too often stop me out before the stock takes off; I still hold on to losing positions for too long (against my better judgment because as soon as I sell them they start trending back up).

I am intrigued by your course. But, I don’t know what it will do for me that I won’t be able to do for myself?

You always need:

  • Exact rules for selecting your tracking portfolio.
  • Exact rules for entering your trades at the right time.
  • Exact rules for exiting your trades with a loss.
  • Exact rules for exiting your trades with a profit.
  • Exact rules for how much money to bet on each trade.

I give you an alternative and perhaps superior way to do that. Also, see my FAQS.

Thanks for the reply. I plan to take the course. I’ll enroll in a few weeks, some time in January. I get the feeling your program will help refine some things I have been developing. I would definitely like a professional perspective, coaching me in staying consistent with my process or a process.

I have an MBA. But, that doesn’t help with investing. It helps me calculate future values and net present values, along with accounting processes and tax implications. Trend following is what I have been looking for, as an investing/trading approach. I stumbled on to it a year ago with the book “If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It.” It wasn’t very sophisticated. But, the moving average approach was quite the eye opener that really started to pay off.

I look forward to taking the course. I’m sure the cost will pay off better than all of the graduate school courses have paid off.

Here to help.

P.S. I have the MBA too. Useless.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 930: Michelle Seiler-Tucker Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michelle Seiler-Tucker
Michelle Seiler-Tucker

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My guest today is Michelle Seiler Tucker, the Founder and CEO of Seiler Tucker Incorporated. She has sold hundreds of businesses to date and currently owns and operates several successful businesses.

The topic is her book Exit Rich: The 6 P Method to Sell Your Business for Huge Profit.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • “Clients buy what they want not what they need.”
  • Real Estate Industry
  • 6 P Methods
  • Buyer and Seller
  • E-commerce Businesses
  • Selling a Business

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“A few years ago I lost a lot of money and I think I’ve struggled to recover psychologically ever since…”

Feedback in:

Hello,

Thanks for your message. I think my biggest challenge is that a few years ago I lost a lot of money (for me anyway), and I think I’ve struggled to recover psychologically ever since. I like to think I’m not completely stupid (I’m an Oxford graduate; although I know this means diddly squat in trading!), and have been doing some reading around.

I’ve spent some time reading stuff on quantitative finance (like the ‘financial hacker’ website), and some of it seems disheartening (since they seem to be saying no trading system with simple rules can be profitable in the modern markets, which seems to be contrary to what I’ve reading on the trendfollowing.com website). I find the trend following approach really interesting because it’s obviously something that price  does in disparate markets (any person looking at a chart can see there are periods where it trends for ages); my problem has usually been that I try and pick tops or bottoms, end up on the wrong side of the market and probably end up fueling the continuation of the trend (probably like most retail traders). I also like the trendfollowing.com website because it seems to say that even fairly simple systems can be profitable; this seems the opposite of what some of the computer science guys (e.g. financial hacker blog) believe with their fuzzy logic, neural nets, spectral analysis, etc.

Best wishes,
Ed

Jump in here.

No more tops/bottoms. That’s the path to no money.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 929: Motivate Me with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Motivate Me with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.