“The podcast is fire!”

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The podcast is fire! The 4-hour Tom Basso marathon on Ep #678 is a true wealth of knowledge.

I also really enjoyed Ep #689. Where you shoot straight from the hip at the people hating on you for speaking about trend, something that you’ve spent many years of your life learning. Love the passion & the honesty.


PS – It reminds me of the “Man in the Arena” Quote we all love:

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.“


Michael Covel’s Mind Food for Thought: October 22nd Edition

Food for thought:


Ep. 704: Run Rabbit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel
Michael Covel

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Michael digs in on money management, trend following psychology, price action, minimizing losses, diversification, and rule based systems.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Money management
  • Trend following psychology
  • Human nature in markets
  • Minimizing losses
  • Buying the breakout
  • Crowd psychology

Mentions & Resources:

Trend Following the Future with Bayes’s Theorem

Trend Following the Future with Bayes’s Theorem
Trend Following the Future with Bayes’s Theorem

A trend following understanding via Bayesian thinking:

Let’s imagine that you and a friend have spent the afternoon playing your favorite board game, and now, at the end of the game, you are chatting about this and that. Something your friend says leads you to make a friendly wager: that with one roll of the die from the game, you will get a 6. Straight odds are one in six, a 16 percent probability. But then suppose your friend rolls the die, quickly covers it with her hand, and takes a peek. “I can tell you this much,” she says; “it’s an even number.” Now you have new information and your odds change dramatically to one in three, a 33 percent probability. While you are considering whether to change your bet, your friend teasingly adds: “And it’s not a 4.” With this additional bit of information, your odds have changed again, to one in two, a 50 percent probability. With this very simple example, you have performed a Bayesian analysis. Each new piece of information affected the original probability, and that is Bayesian [updating].

Bayes’s Theorem is part of trend following logic.


Daniel Kahneman and Jeff Bezos Make the Case for Trend Following

Danny Kahneman and Jeff Bezos
Danny Kahneman and Jeff Bezos

From Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 Google Talk on the promotional tour for Thinking Fast And Slow:

“Intuitive expertise is not going to develop in a chaotic universe… I personally do not believe that stock pickers can develop intuition… there isn’t enough regularity in what’s going to happen to prices for intuitions to develop. When there are marginal situations where there is some predictability but poor, formulas do better than individuals… that is the domain where formulas beat individuals regularly is the domain of fairly low predictability, because when there are weak cues, people are not very good at picking them up and are not good at using them consistently, but formulas can be generated on the basis of experience and they will do a better job than individual judgement.

Building off the Nobel winner comes the richest guy ever Jeff Bezos:

“When we make mistakes, and we’ve made doozies, like the Firephone and many other things that just didn’t work out–we don’t have enough time for me to list all of our failed experiments, but the big winners pay for thousands of failed experiments.


Ep. 703: Allison Shapira Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Allison Shapira
Allison Shapira

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Allison Shapira is founder and CEO of Global Public Speaking LLC and author of “Speak with Impact: How to Command the Room and Influence Others.” She teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School and offers keynote speeches, workshops, and executive coaching for Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and nonprofits around the world.

What was the process for pulling research together for her new book? Conducting interviews? Pulling from personal experience? Allison has been teaching on public speaking for over 15 years. She has hundreds of stories spanning across just about every industry – giving her the depth of knowledge needed for this book. Allison saw trends of what worked, didn’t work and how to apply that information to the real world and real people. Public speaking is a critical skill in the professional world and it is a skill that needs training and coaching to become good at. Having knowledge and expertise on a subject alone does not make you a good speaker. Speaking clearly and concisely is a craft that demands hours of practice to feel comfortable.

Allison has had some brilliant and academically distinguished mentors, however the people she has learned from and been inspired by the most are in workshops. She is inspired by getting people “over the hump” and seeing scenarios that prove that public speaking is a skill that everyone can execute.

How does she get students over that “hump?” Vocal variety, eye contact and body language are three non-verbal communication elements that are key in giving an engaging presentation. Also, when people believe in what they are speaking on and are passionate about it, they seem to be less nervous and have less anxiety. A good presentation should feel like a conversation with the audience. With that being said, there is no such thing as perfection when it comes to public speaking. There is always room for improvement – Practice, practice, practice.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Authenticity
  • Public speaking
  • Karaoke singing
  • Vocal variety
  • Eye contact
  • Body language

Mentions & Resources: