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Ep. 271: The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Play the Trend Following Game

Trend following trading is a game indeed, but it is terribly important to avoid becoming the game (a game I have explained in a multitude of ways). In general, think about the three types of players in any game:

• Those who know they are in the game.
• Those who do not know they are in the game.
• Those who do not know they are in the game and have become the game.

Within a half hour of playing any game, if you do not know the patsy, you are it. Said another way: You are the game. That is serious talk for the serious game of your financial health and wealth.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
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Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Is This Time Different? Trend Following and Financial Crises

Informative read.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 270: Laurie Santos Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Laurie Santos
Laurie Santos

My guest today is Laurie Santos, a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans.

The topic is cognitive abilities.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Santos’ early “ah-ha” moments
  • Teaching monkeys about currencies
  • Whether the monkey economy is as irrational as ours
  • The endowment effect
  • How monkeys’ behavior in markets quantitatively matches human behavior
  • Whether some monkeys took to the experimental economy better than others
  • Mistakes and predictable errors
  • Why humans might be uniquely irrational when it comes to enjoying what we pay more for
  • Vernon Smith’s work
  • Relationships between Santos’ work and the financial crisis of 2008
  • Bubbles, monkeys, and Daniel Kahneman
  • The “G.I. Joe fallacy”
  • Why we have trouble accepting cognitive limitations rather than our biological limitations

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Noah Smith: No Thanks

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel,

I want to congratulate you for arranging an interview with Robert Aumann. You are very skilled at arranging interviews with prominent people in the fields of economics and finance and I am looking forward to listening to your future podcasts.

After listening to your podcast titled, Misinformed View on Trend Following, I was not surprised that Noah Smith [ep. 266] raised your ire. You are another person in a long line of individuals who have been jolted by Smith’s writings on economics and finance. He is very skilled at writing columns that cause the people who he criticizes to respond vehemently. To give you an idea of how many people and websites have responded strongly to Smith’s writings, I will list some of them for you: Peter Schiff, Mike Shedlock, Robert Murphy, Gary North, ZeroHedge.com, Acting-Man.com, and TheDailyBell.com. Schiff recently interviewed Smith on his radio show. If you listen to the interview, you will hear that Smith is not afraid to debate a person that he criticizes and he is not rude. I encourage you to use your skill at arranging interviews to convince Smith to be interviewed by you. I believe that you will find him troublesome but you will learn that he is an intellectually honest person who simply wants to know what drives financial markets and the economy.

Sincerely,

[Name]

Noah Smith is a petulant brat. Next.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Don’t Compare Yourself to a Fund

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I’ve been listening to all your podcasts–an episode-a-day while driving to work. It’s full of great interviews and I’ll try to get your word out to my world as much as I can.

After listening to your Martin Bergin episode I found myself asking a question. And this is what I want to ask you: is it necessary to use automated (computer-run) systems to follow trends in these days or can it still be done manually by retail investors like me?

I’m not math-phobic but am no PhD in Math either. I do have a computer but it’s a plain old Macbook Pro and not a blackbox kind of supercomputer!

Please help, as I’m struggling to hear how a retail trader can effectively but manually follow trends.

Keep the flag flying!

Warm Rgds
[Name]

Please don’t compare yourself to a billion dollar fund (see Turtle story)! You can absolutely keep track of trades as a retail trader via a spreadsheet (EXCEL or paper). Mind you: you are trading end of day (no day trading) and or end of week bars. That is a very straightforward tracking issue. Can you make it pretty and fancy with automation software? Sure. Do you have to do that? No.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 269: Robert Aumann Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Aumann
Robert Aumann

My guest today is Robert Aumann, the fourth Nobel Prize winner to appear on this podcast. Aumann is an Israeli-American mathematician, and a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences. He is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

The topic is game theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis
  • World via his game theory perspective
  • Meeting John Nash and Aumann’s early background
  • What game theory is trying to accomplish
  • The economic definition of rationality
  • The idea of a strategy matrix
  • The world champions of peace and the best way to maintain peace
  • The 2008-09 bailouts from Aumann’s perspective and a game theory outlook
  • Behavioral economics
  • Game theory, diplomats, and the Cuban Missile Crisis
  • The existence of nuclear weapons and the Cold War

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