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Tag: trend follower

Lao Tzu: A Wise Trend Follower

Posted on by Michael Covel

Lao Tzu was wise:

“A good traveler has no fixed plan, and is not intent on arriving.”

“If you look to others for fulfillment, you will never be truly fulfilled.”

“When I let go of what I am, I become what I might be.”

“People in their handlings of affairs often fail when they are about to succeed. If one remains as careful at the end as he was at the beginning, there will be no failure.”

“Respond intelligently even to unintelligent treatment.”

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

“The power of intuitive understanding will protect you from harm until the end of your days.”

“When you are content to be simply yourself and don’t compare or compete, everybody will respect you.”

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David Druz: Trend Following for Over 30 Years

Posted on by Michael Covel

David Druz will be in my new book. One of his track records:

Trading from Hawaii…yes, true.

Disclaimers:

Our firm can not promise you will earn like returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) mentioned. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google, IASG and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Michael Mauboussin: Untangling Skill and Luck

Posted on by Michael Covel

I have long posted white papers from Michael Mauboussin. Here is his most recent piece “Untangling Skill and Luck How to Think About Outcomes–Past, Present, and Future” (PDF).

Mauboussin also happens to be in my film Broke.

Note: Shout to Pragcap.com for the find.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Busted flat in Baton Rouge… waiting for a train

Posted on by Michael Covel

Not all trend followers are the same and not all stick to their rules.

A few years ago a young guy under the tutelage of a known and famed trend follower (not a Turtle in this example, but I know two Turtles who walked the plank so to speak) started a fund. He raised over several hundred million in assets under management. He was making good money, but the credit crisis started and for whatever reason this trader went from systematic trend following to discretionary day trading leaving fellow employees scratching their heads (can’t make this up). It did not end well. Firm is gone now. So what do we all do with this example? Is that a trend following failure or something else? Clearly, it is something else. I know quite a few examples like this. Do some money mangers get into trend following, raise $, get in over their head then start changing this or that because of some gut impulse… and go bust? Absolutely. Rules in this world are important.

Lessons? Manage risk, and the reward will follow. Ignore your process and that opening lyric from “Me and Bobby McGee”…will happen. In my book, there is as much to learn from the consistent trend following studs as there is to learn from the cons and quitters.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Casino Math Makes Trend Followers Happy

Posted on by Michael Covel

Casino math (PDF) may be the most important wisdom you can know to be a successful trend follower. In fact, I feature much of this thinking in my documentary film.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Old Pro Wisdom

Posted on by Michael Covel

An quotation from an old pro trend follower:

“Why do people think they’re smarter than the market long-term? What gives them that confidence? I guess people feel dumb if they can’t predict what the market is going to do in the short term. They’re too proud to admit they don’t know what to do when they’re wrong. They don’t have the capacity to understand the digits that are scrolling by on the bottom of the television. I don’t. It’s too much noise. That’s why we rely on our system.”

Who is being quoted? Hint: he did not start trading until his late thirties.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Donchian: Forbes Circa 1982

Posted on by Michael Covel

An excerpt from Forbes circa 1982:

The fundamentalists — a decided majority among successful investors — look on chartism somewhat the way physicists look on parapsychology. They are probably correct to regard them so, but there is no rule that does not have an exception. Dick Donchian seems to be that exception. Donchian differs from many a chart watcher: He doesn’t predict price movements, he just follows them. His explanation for his success is simple and as old as the Dow Theory itself: “Trends persist.” He will buy a hog or Treasury bond future after an upswing is under way, and sell it only after the price has begun to tumble. He misses some of the profit, but that’s part of the discipline of his style of investing. “A lot of people say things like: ‘Gold has got to come down. It went up too fast.’ That’s why 85% of commodities investors lose money,” he says. Donchian gained that wisdom the hard way. His Futures Inc., the first publicly offered commodities fund, came out in 1948 at $10 a share. It was before its time — or Donchian’s. “When I started trading I was bearish,” he recalls. “Cocoa seemed too high. So we took a short position at 30 cents, and it went down to 19. We made a lot of money at first; that was the worst thing that could happen. I looked around for another commodity that was overvalued. Coffee was making a new high of 20 cents, so we took a short position, and it went up to $1. I made a rule never to be a price trader. There’s no such thing as too high a price or too low a price.” Futures Inc. went as low as 4 cents a share before finally being dissolved…The essence of trend-following, however, is always this: Buy on a rising price and sell on a falling price. That sounds like buying dear and selling cheap, but it works, if prices move not in random walks but in long strides.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.