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Category: Holy Grails

The 50 year Forecast? Ahem… Bullsh**

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

“Dear Michael Covel, I’m a financial professional analyzing the financial markets of any type. I’m working free, not dependent to ant company or institution. During last 6 months, I aware of an important formation taking place in DOW. It’s the long term SHOULDER-HEAD-SHOULDER formation which will lead DOW to fall down well below 5,000 assumably 1,000 to 2,000 band within two years or three. I’m not sure how to read this decline and its consiquences [sic], which is very sharp, the second after 1929, maybe the first of its kind. It certainly lead to a crisis by affecting first USA markets and then soon the rest of the world. With this decline, DOW will reach the lower line of the “increasing trend path or band of all time” (100 years) and then a new era will start, and DOW will reach 10,000 points again in 10-15 years of time, and then it will reach 100,000 within next 50 years. Note that this is just a forecast,as hundred thousands of analyst doing every day, but this is of its kind and a bit different then usual when you think of time span and its possible effects. Wait and see, test and prove my view with no doubt it will happen. Friendly speaking, I want to convert this forecast into cash. (It’s just a forecast before it occurs).That’s why writing to you. I think Soros fund management is the right place to make use of this info into cash in most effective way possible. Dear Michael, I appreciate if you share this forecast with George Soros himself.”
Best Regards,
Cemal, S.

I love crazy people. Can his prediction happen? Sure. Is there any system that he has to get to that forecast beyond making it up? No.

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What is StockTwits: It it of Use or Just a Bunch of Twits?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Howard Lindzon has said some very nice things about my books. Now that the disclaimer is out of the way: what in the world is the purpose of StockTwits?

Stocktwits Best Traders

For example, from their ‘about us’ page:

“Log into the site with your Twitter details or download the StockTwits Desktop and you will be joining a community where market participants share their very best ideas in a continuous real time and open conversation.”

And:

“The beauty is the simplicity. Messages are short and allow a person to read several interesting bits of stock information from various sources at a glance. The lightweight approach highlights the power of delivering vertical value to a horizontal community, where both constituencies share a common passion: the desire to consume and share real-time information.”

And:

“In essence, StockTwits® helps people interested in markets socialize ideas. Whether you are a short term trader, swing trader or investor, whether you prefer stocks, Forex, options or futures, whether you want to eavesdrop or participate, you will find a wealth of information streaming at your fingertips.”

Sure, everyone has a view, but not everyone has a view that you should pay attention to. In fact, if trading as a trend follower ALL of these views are worthless.

Let me blunt: I know who the best traders on the planet are and NONE of them do any of this. Agree or flame me because I am 100% dead on telling the truth. This is financial news and information taken to its useless extreme by the Free Stocktwits.

Note: I am an equal opportunity ripper of news whatever. CNBC doesn’t escape my sword.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Goldline Starting to Tarnish

Posted on by Michael Covel

I just called the Goldline guys.

First thing I asked, “If I buy gold from you when do I ever sell?”

The punk on the phone (and that is being charitable) said:

“Gold has never crashed.”

“If gold was to go again from $800 to $200 you would have plenty of warning to sell.”

I asked who was going to give me that warning. He said, drum roll please….they would. Everyone should call and have this conversation. Block your number and only give them your first name. Ask them the same questions I did before they get any details from you. It’s an experience!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Tim Paradis AP Business Writer Has Less Than No Clue

Posted on by Michael Covel

Tim Paradis, apparently an AP business writer, penned this ditty this morning:

Investors’ rising fears about consumer spending are turning stocks into a risky investment again. Stocks plunged and Treasury prices soared Monday as investors around the world feared that consumers are too anxious to lift the economy into recovery.

More from Paradis:

The mixed economic readings of the past several months aren’t surprising. A turnaround produces mixed messages because not all parts of the economy recover at the same speed and some indicators start to show life before others. Analysts say investors who had expected the economy would rocket higher got ahead of themselves by sending stocks up so quickly. Many economists have predicted a gradual recovery in the economy, in part because unemployment rates could remain high.

How does Paradis draw all of these so nicely wrapped up conclusions? His background gives tremendous insight into his keen economic and trading insight. Rhetorically, I ask Paradis:

1. Who are these investors? Long only Dow investors?
2. Is 1.73% down (drop at time of me reading his article) a “plunge”? And for those who are short isn’t that a good thing?

I could go on. Perhaps others have observations about Paradis’s observations?

The Madoff Investor JEHT Foundation, created by Jeanne Levy-Church, Shocked to Lose their Endowment

Posted on by Michael Covel

From the New York Times today:

When Jeanne Levy-Church created the JEHT Foundation in 2002 to promote justice, equality, human dignity and tolerance, she tapped into investments run by Bernard L. Madoff. Those investments were initially made more than three decades ago by her father, Norman Levy, who entrusted his real estate fortune to Mr. Madoff. Financed solely by regular contributions from Ms. Levy-Church, the foundation gave away more than $75 million over the next few years. But on Monday, the young foundation announced that it would cease operations by the end of January – a victim of the same investments that made it a star in liberal philanthropic circles. “The returns had been steady and strong for all these years,” said Robert Crane, the foundation’s chief executive. “It was shocking.”

 

jeanne levy church lost a lot of money to Bernard Madoff
Jeanne Levy Church got caught out in one of the largest frauds ever seen through having her investments looked after by the Bernard Madoff scheme. He ran a Ponzi scheme that made use of his high level position to backdate trades and to manipulate client account statements.

What was shocking? That the good thing that made no sense, the good thing that produced such easy money for so long, was finally exposed as a con? Think I am too harsh? Well, it is clear that some very wealthy people are currently all over the media with “I don’t know what happened” cries. It rings hollow.

Madoff Clients: Case Studies for Colleges Classes for Decades

Posted on by Michael Covel

From the AP today:

When local officials in Fairfield, Conn., heard of Madoff’s arrest “it set off every bell,” said Paul Hiller, the town’s chief fiscal officer. The town’s employees board and police and fire board — which cover 971 workers — had $41.9 million invested with Madoff, said Paul Hiller, Fairfield’s chief fiscal officer. Town officials immediately notified their investment fund to liquidate. “At that point, it was too late,” he said. “We obviously didn’t ask enough questions,” Hiller said.

Continuing:

New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg, one of the wealthiest members of the Senate, entrusted his family’s charitable foundation to Madoff. Lautenberg’s attorney, Michael Griffinger, said they weren’t yet sure the extent of the foundation’s losses, but that the bulk of its investments had been handled by Madoff.

The bulk? Go figure. Easy come, easy go. Here is the full list of “innocents”…I mean suckers. Don’t like my harshness? Well, this is a gross episode that goes far beyond one man.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.