Archive
Category: Black Swan Thinking
- January 20, 2010Casino Math Makes Trend Followers Happy
Casino math (PDF) may be the most important wisdom you can know to be a successful trend follower. In fact, I feature much of this thinking in my documentary film.
- November 20, 2009Harvard Poker Pro Says Texas Hold ‘Em Can Teach Traders to Fold
From Bloomberg: “Someone who has made a successful living as a poker player for a few years would more likely be a good trader than someone who hasn’t,” said Aaron Brown, a…
- August 19, 2009Efficient Market Bullshit
I love it when people tell me the trend following ‘winners’ are the lucky survivors. In my humble opinion people who think like that are either ignorant in the short-term willing to…
- January 6, 2009Dunn Capital Lesson for the Buy and Hopers
The most recent review of my book “Trend Following” on Amazon is this: For 200 pages you read how much trend followers made, trend followers are so great, they are always winners….…
- May 14, 2008Larry Hite: Life is a Bet
A comment from trader Larry Hite: “Life is nothing more than a series of bets and bets are really nothing more than questions and their answers. There is no real difference between,…
- January 6, 2008Michael Mauboussin: Fat Tails and Nonlinearity
Food for thought (PDF) from Michael Mauboussin: If you are involved in financial markets, you have gotten the memo about fat tails by now. But awareness of extreme events is not enough.…
- January 2, 2008Excerpt from Full House Chapter: The Median Isn’t the Message
A conversation about a friend’s cancer came up today. I immediately thought of a chapter in Stephen Jay Gould’s book “Full House”: The Median Isn’t the Message by Stephen Jay Gould My…