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Author: Michael Covel

Author of Trend Following and TurtleTrader.

Spyros Makridakis Interview Followup

Posted on by Michael Covel

A followup from a recent conversation with Spyros Makridakis:

Dear Mike,

It was nice to talk to you this morning. As I promised I am attaching the following three papers:

  • Medicine. This is an extract from an article I am writing about Forecasting and Uncertainty. It is amazing that the forecasting record of medicine is so dismal as it involves our lives and health.
  • Positive Illusions. This is a recent paper that will be published in a book of readings.
  • Why Forecasts Fail. A paper published in the Sloan Management Review that explains why forecasts fail and how I got involved in this line of research.

I am also attaching the cover copy of the book by Ablin (the guy who discovered the PSA test for prostate cancer) and his view about the validity of the test he discovered.

Let me know if I can be of any additional help and please send me the link of your podcast once it is ready.

Best,
Spyros Makridakis

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Feedback

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hello Michael,

I’m a 25 year veteran as a financial advisor and I’ve subscribed to more newsletters and systems than I care to admit. I know there’s no “magic bullet” to investing success when confronted with the chaos that exists in this world, but your writings and the evidence you provide has made a significant impact on me. I, like most of my financial advisor brethren, (particularly those who are independent like the [name] advisors) want to make a positive impact on the financial lives of our clients and break free from the “buy and hope” nonsense still prescribed by Wall Street professionals and the index funds. Your teaching has already helped me help my clients to better manage the risks of the markets and I’m extremely grateful. I’m an avid listener to your podcast and own three of your books (all with extensive highlighting and underlining).

All the best to you and the Trend Following team.

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 337: Michael Covel Speech and William Ury Interview on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
William Ury
William Ury

Please enjoy my monologue Michael Covel Speech and William Ury Interview on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Michael Covel Presentation
Michael Covel Presentation

Trend Following Wisdom from Dalio

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent email in:

(Indavertent) TF Wisdom from Dalio:

“To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble. You have to be an independent thinker because you can’t make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you’re betting against the consensus there’s a significant probability you’re going to be wrong, so you have to be humble.”

Wisdom from a man that knows how to trade unexpected trends in a 100% systematic fashion.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 336: Colin Camerer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Colin Camerer
Colin Camerer

My guest today is Colin Camerer, an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is on the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. This work seeks a better understanding of the psychological and neurobiological basis of decision-making in order to determine the validity of models of human economic behavior. His research uses mostly economics experiments—and occasionally field studies—to understand how people behave when making decisions (e.g., risky gambles for money), in games, and in markets (e.g., speculative price bubbles).

The topics are cognitive psychology and economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why Camerer was called a child prodigy, and how he looks at that term in the context of nurture vs. nature
  • Synthesizing behavioral economics and neuroscience; understanding Camerer’s studies when traders aren’t looking at the market on a day-to-day basis; how we can stimulate the brain to create a bubble
  • The ethical issues surrounding Camerer’s work
  • Machine learning and data mining
  • Neuroscience and game theory
  • Comparing humans and chimps in the study of neuroscience
  • How trust correlates with economic growth
  • How emotion functions in the modern world

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

“Your Books and Podcast Had A Decisive Influence on My Investment Success”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

Thanks a lot for connecting. I have been following your outstanding work for many years and the information I gathered from your books and podcasts had a decisive influence on my investment success.

After studying “trend following” with your books I have started to trade futures with a small trading account and after the usual complications at the beginning, I have been quite successful with your strategy.

Besides trading, your podcasts have brought to me brilliant insights into other areas, (Media, Psychology, Politics, etc.) for which I am very grateful.

Thanks a lot for your inspiration and please keep on doing what you do. It is surely very important to many people.

Best regards from Singapore.
[Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

JWH, Farming and Trend Following: New Trader Inspiration

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

I just wanted to start off by saying thank you for making so many resources readily available to learn more about trend following trading.

I have been trading commodity futures for a little over 2 years now and have just recently (within the last 3 months) introduced to trend following trading. Trend following is the trading method that makes the most sense to me and the only method I can see leading to a lifetime of returns. Just recently started reading your Trend Following book and it is already resonating with me and enforcing the idea that this is the trading system for me.

I have also been an avid listener of your podcasts. Really enjoy that you dive in to more than just the trading systems themselves but rather how the individuals got their start and found trend following. I also am a fan of the podcasts that discuss the mental side of trading–the most important part.

One final question, from learning more about the trend following world have become interested in learning more about John W. Henry because like him I am a young farmer. Would ever be a guest on the podcast?

Thanks again and look forward to hearing from you.

[Name]

John W. Henry would be a great guest.