My guest today is Dylan Evans, a British former academic and author who has written books on emotion and the placebo effect as well as the theories of Jacques Lacan.
The topic is risk intelligence.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
- Definition of risk intelligence
- Optimism bias
- Correlations between IQ and risk intelligence
- The Brandywine Raceway in Delaware and unconscious statistical modeling
- Probabilities and the nuclear power risk issue
- Making decisions on uncertain information
- The expected value mindset
- Bet sizing
- How luck is always part of the game
- Knowing when not to bet
- The hidden costs of trying to eliminate risk in a system where risk can never be eliminated
- The “calibration test” for risk intelligence.
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