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The Positive Trend Following Response

Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital writes:

Trend following is no more dead than the sport of sailing or the act of kite flying would be considered dead if for a period of time the wind didn’t blow. Like a sailboat or a kite, a trend following trading model is designed to capture the power of environmental forces. When the requisite environmental forces don’t occur for stretches of time, activities that depend on those environmental forces are not going to be successful. But if the wind stopped blowing for a month, would that mean that that the concept of sailing or kite flying no longer makes sense? Of course not. The physics of both activities would still make perfect sense and once the wind starts blowing once again, sailboats will again sail and kites will again fly. The same holds true for trend following. Just as the wind will always return to blow in the future, the forces that drive price trends—greed, fear, euphoria, panic—will return at some point and when they do, trend following trading models will make a great deal of money.


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