I said to myself: “There’s no way in hell I’m listening to a 4-hour episode with Tom Basso…” And then I got to hour 3 and said to myself “I owe you an apology” holy **** this is amazing. 95 pages into Trend Following and just bought The Complete TurtleTrader today… thank you for doing this amazing show.
I think he’s referring to that guy who wrote Chavez was great…
[David Sirota] used to have a column in one of the daily papers here in the NW. He’s been an economic kook (technical term) for decades. Seems to think that the State owes us all something. Probably didn’t pay enough attention in college and flunked Econ 101 and 102.
Look, capitalism isn’t perfect (and you correctly point out that our current “crony capitalism” is a perverse version that will lead to bad outcomes), but all you have to do is compare Singapore and Cuba from the time that both started the current regimes (mid-1950’s) and the outcomes are so startlingly different that there can be no debate about which system is better. End of rant.
I finished up listening to your podcast with Mike Lofgren on “The Deep State” and felt the urge to just thank you for a very interesting, informative, provocative, but essential discussion. Ironically, the issues you discussed are standard dinner table topics for me and my family (I’d consider ourselves different from the norm in a good way). Unfortunately, today’s farrago of reality TV shows, sports, and social issues have become red herrings to the more important topics. Why discuss the vexing and complicated issues when we can just talk about the Kardashians or whether bathrooms should be genderless?… At any rate, look forward to more discussions on your podcast.
PS: I have also been working in investments for a couple years but would could consider myself a “new” trader. At the end of your podcast you mentioned you’d send some trend following steps. I currently use a nuanced Tom Demark Indicator system, but I’m always open to learning something new.
I want to first say thank you for all the great material and insight you’ve put out into the universe regarding trend following trading. I have all of your books and have listened to every single episode of Trend Following Radio. Both your books and podcasts have provided me with a plethora of information on the subject of trend following and the general psychological mindset needed in order to be a successful trader.
I also wanted to say thanks for helping me with the motivation I needed to finally leave Los Angeles for the first time since college to go out and travel, something I’ve wanted to do since I graduated. As a 28-year old guy with no children, I really had no excuse as to why I wasn’t getting out there and seeing the rest of the world. Also, your mantra of “you’re gonna die”, though simple, helped push me in the direction of taking more risks.
Right now I’m living in Bangkok. Through listening to your podcasts, I know you spend a decent amount of time over here in Southeast Asia. I was wondering if you had any public speaking engagements or live appearances over in this part of the world. I’ve read all of your material and listen to every podcast but I think it would be awesome to see you speak in person about trend following. I don’t see any future speaking engagements listed on the website but since I happen to be living over here for the moment I figured it couldn’t hurt to ask.
Anyway, thanks again for everything and much peace and prosperity my friend.
[Name]
You are welcome, but no new news yet on live events. Stay tuned.
[Trend Following] fills a void in a marketplace inundated with books about buying low and selling high, index investing, and all other types of fundamental analysis, but lacking any resource or, for that matter, practically any reference to what I believe is the single best strategy to consistently make money in the markets. That strategy is known as trend following. Author Van Tharp has described it succinctly:
“Let’s break down the term ‘trend following’ into its components. The first part is ‘trend.’ Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices … ‘following’ is the next part of the term. We use this word because trend followers always wait for the trend to shift first, then ‘follow’ it.”
Trend following trading seeks to capture the majority of a market trend, up or down, for profit. It aims for profits in all major asset classes—stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Unfortunately, however simple the basic concepts about trend following are, they have been widely misunderstood by the public. My desire to correct this state of affairs is what, in part, launched my research. I wanted to be as objective as possible, so I based my writing on all available data:
• Trend followers’ published words and comments over the last 30 years
• News accounts of financial disasters
• News accounts of the losers in those financial disasters
• Charts of markets traded by trend followers
• Charts of markets traded by losers in the financial disasters
If I could have written books comprising only numbers, charts, and graphs of trend following performance data, I would have. However, without any explanation, few readers would have appreciated the ramifications of what the data alone showed. Therefore, my approach to writing Trend Following became similar to the one Jim Collins describes in his book Good to Great, in which a team of researchers generated questions, accumulated data in their open-ended search for answers, and then energetically debated it.
However, unlike Collins who was writing about generally well known public companies, trend followers form a sort of underground network of relatively unknown traders who, except for an occasional article, the mainstream press has virtually ignored. What I have attempted to do is lift the veil, for the first time, on who these enormously successful traders are, how they trade, and what is to be learned from their approach to trading that we might all apply to our own portfolios.
Trend Following challenges much of the conventional wisdom about successful trading and traders. To avoid the influences of conventional wisdom, I was determined to avoid being influenced by institutionalized knowledge defined by Wall Street and was adamant about fighting “flat earth” thinking. During my research, starting with an assumption and then finding data to support it was avoided. Instead, questions were asked and then, objectively, doggedly, and slowly, answers were revealed.
If there was one factor that motivated me to work in this manner, it was simple curiosity. The more I uncovered about trend followers, the more I wanted to know.
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Feedback from a listener:
Hi Michael.
I’ve been listening to your awesome podcast for a few months now and it has intrigued me quite a lot. Thank you so much for putting it up out there.
I never really thought about money before. I’m one of those suckers who has been keeping the money in the bank, too skeptical of financial advisers, too afraid and ignorant of the stock markets. At some point obviously I started to realize that I needed to be in control of my savings and start planning my future. I’ve been reading a lot about the markets, but nothing makes as much sense as your words.
Despite understanding your message (at least I think I do), I actually don’t know how to exactly implement that way of thinking on a personal strategy. I am a dentist living in London, 2 small kids at home, so not a lot of time on my hands. I have been putting some of my savings on a buy and hold strategy with Vanguard equity funds. But without a doubt I am dependent on market timings and on the hope things will always “get better.” And that doesn’t seem to be very sensible.
So, I am contacting you in the hope you could help me to have some more clues on how to start on a trend following strategy that could fit my circumstances.
With great admiration,
[Name]
My father is a dentist. I feel a kinship! Good news and bad news: Good? Trend following can help anyone. Bad? Need to do some prep. Here are some starters: Start Now and an Intro Video.
I’ve been listening to your podcast for over a year now, and it is truly excellent! The interviews, the guests, and the first-rate information they provide is invaluable. I just left a rating on iTunes. You and I must be distantly related (aren’t we all?). My mother’s maiden name was Coval, and her father was John Coval, from the Ukraine (Skala).
Please send me the right trend following steps to continue my knowledge. Also, would you please send me your free video.
Thanks,
[Name]
Thanks, but not related!
How is Covel pronounced? Co-vell. “Co” rhymes with toe. “Vell” rhymes with bell. Equally accented each syllable. It was shortened from Covalesky, which was shortened originally from Kavaliauskas (which is father’s Lithuanian side).
Listener: Maybe its just me, but it struck a chord. The fact that average folks cannot equate to large sums of money is bang on. I mean if one spends there time looking for bargains at Walmart, how can they possibly comprehend millions let alone billions. The brainwashing and their ignorance prevents them from that. The Kevin Bruce story is simply amazing. What a humble human being. He understood what most never will at such a tender age that its all about the freedom and not the bling. Truly inspiring for the masses that want more out of life than the status quo or as I like to call it the neighbor quo!
Listener: David Harding calling the SPY a system, who the heck would ever have the courage to go on CNBC and tout that? The Godfather clip, inner confidence at its finest. As human beings we seek the answers everywhere but from within, where they truly lie. Truly inspiring and motivational at least for me, and this is coming from a guy who’s favorite quote is;
“The more time I spend among humans,the more I love my dog.”
