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Category: Trend Following

The Vulcan Mind Meld of Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

Today, I had the opportunity to share face-to-face experiences with a handful of key lieutenants at a prominent trend following firm. They also provided a great background from their then small start-up to current respected veteran status. Their track record? It extends over 30+ years. They have been around the block to say the least. How has their basic trend following philosophy remained under the radar? That was the question I kept asking myself. How can a college finance class serve any purpose if these types of trend traders are not on the syllabus? Well, it can’t.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

David Druz: Trend Following for Over 30 Years

Posted on by Michael Covel

David Druz will be in my new book. One of his track records:

Trading from Hawaii…yes, true.

Disclaimers:

Our firm can not promise you will earn like returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) mentioned. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google, IASG and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Francisco Vaca: The ‘Turtle’ Scientist

Posted on by Michael Covel

I spent some time with Francisco Vaca a few years back in Florida. He offered a nice view on my book ‘The Complete TurtleTrader’:

“Regarding your new book [“The Complete TurtleTrader“], I can say that after hearing the turtle story many times from many of the people that are part of the story and after reading many articles about such story, this is by far the most entertaining, inspiring, extensive, and honest story of the turtles I have ever read.”

Vaca’s background? He currently is an associate with original Turtle Paul Rabar. How did he get started?

“…a friend…told me there was a job for a programmer at a commodity trading firm. He had thrown away the job ad, so I picked it out from the garbage! It turned out to be at C&D Commodities, which was co-founded by Richard Dennis of ‘turtle’ fame.”

That ‘find the ad in the garbage can’ was long after the original Turtle experiment. Read a recent article on Vaca (PDF).

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Transtrend: Netherlands Based Trend Following Trader

Posted on by Michael Covel

Transtrend has had great trend following performance since 1995: (PDF).

More.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I Have No Clue, But Please Post My Anonymous Post!”

Posted on by Michael Covel

This anonymous blog comment (well, he changed his name, but used the same IP as other non-anonymous posts) is quite possibly the most ignorant comment yet on my blog:

“Madoff’s monthly returns (before the fraud was exposed) looked like a trend follower’s nirvana — constantly rising NAV without drawdowns. Madoff investors showed trend-following “savvy” by investing with him knowing that the trend-is-your-friend-until-it-ends (Unfortunately the drawdown came instantaneously — and the Madoff NAV was limit down in perpetuity.)”

How do you spot the next Madoff? Anyone making 1-2% every month is either a scam or will blow up.

How is that remotely related to trend following?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I Like Trend Following, But Please Tell Me A Story Too!”

Posted on by Michael Covel

From a reader commenting on my recent post:

“Michael – the story gets worse – I think you and your readers will enjoy this tale of mine. (I usually post under my own name, but this time anonymous). We are a fully systematic trend following FX fund here in Europe with a quite a long and successful track record. Each month we have to produce a newsletter with a paragraph describing the previous month. For years I would use this to promote the philosophy of systematic trend following using only price as input with no interference, etc, etc – similar to what you are doing here. However, increasingly there has been a growing demand from new and prospective clients to see more “fundamental reasons” for our trading! They want to get a sense that we are indeed “experts” in foreign exchange! That we “know” what is happening in FX every month. So now I have to go back every month to find some of the more significant winning (or losing) trades and then somehow try to “find and fit” a reason why we made a profit in such and such a trade! In some cases the reason for a particular move emerges well after the fact, and sometimes, not at all. In some cases the market moved exactly opposite to the apparent fundamental conditions. Apparently our years and years of research and expertise in system design, trend following and money management techniques and the like, is worth nothing. Sometimes we feel as if we live in a parallel universe. Sometimes it feels as if this industry will never grow up. The worst of it is that these individuals have never, and will never be traders or fund managers themselves. However, they are the gatekeepers and allocators in the industry. The so-called wealth managers, family office managers, fund-of-fund managers etc. These are the decision-makers in the industry that decide on funds like ours. Thank you for your hard work and excellent blog. You remind us that we are not alone. All the best.”

Thanks for the note. I have noticed this too — across many trend traders.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Smacking the Home Run: Fat Right Tails

Posted on by Michael Covel

A good reminder:

Opalesque: You have some winning trades, some losing trades, how do you know you’ll come out ahead?

Trend follower Ken Tropin: In this business you need to have ample payoffs from your winning trades but make sure your losing trades do not generate big losses—so the returns have a fat right tail but not much left tail! Suppose over time you make money on half your trades and lose money on the other half. If the winning trades are double the size of the losing trades, then you have a pretty profitable investment.

Source. More on Kenneth Tropin here.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.