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Geneva Trend Following Insights: Still Ignored

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Hello Michael, Warm greetings here from Switzerland! I thought I would give you some feedback from a conference I attended last week in Geneva: The Opal European Wealth and Family Office Conference. It reminded me again of how much work we need to do to spread the logic of basic trend following amongst this group. The three-day conference was very much focused on issues of feeling, judgements and nothing short of predictions about asset classes, which countries they should be investing in and the general direction of the market. It is genuinely frustrating to find that trend following is still confined to and seen as a specialized CTA strategy, one of many others. Thankfully, there was a short section (discussed in a separate boardroom) about CTAs and their role in a portfolio, and it would appear that there was a greater deal of acceptance of trend following amongst this group. I also cannot help but feel that even though we are all in the same industry, actual fund managers and those who allocate assets (and therefore judge and analyze us) are in fact very far removed from one another. Michael, we are in the process of building our business and diversifying beyond our own single strategy fund. We have planned for some time to create a fund-of-fund of esteemed peers: the qualification simply being systematic trend followers who we respect from both a quantitative and qualitative point of view. As you know, there are some fancy software and websites which allow you to do quantitative analysis on these. However, we kindly want to ask your opinion and suggestions on the handful of funds here in Europe and the UK which you in your experience find to fit well with your idea of systematic trend followers (regardless of trading instruments, asset class or such variables such as AUM). Of course, there are people like [name] and the like, but preferably ones that are not as well-known as the more famous ones. We will treat your suggestions with confidence and will not hold you responsible for your suggestions; they will simply provide an interesting angle from which to begin our analysis, from somebody whose opinion we hold in high regard. Thank you so much and all the best to you Michael. PS: Thank you for the many updates on both your blog and Facebook. Sometimes you are the only reason for going onto Facebook!

Thanks for the insights and feedback!

I am an open book, however. My experience with assorted managers (by name) is across my websites, 4 books, film and podcast episodes.

It’s all transparent.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk

Fast, clear feedback is crucial to gauging probabilities; for lessons, consult weathermen and gamblers:

Most of us have to estimate probabilities every day. Whether as a trader betting on the price of a stock, a lawyer gauging a witness’s reliability or a doctor pondering the accuracy of a diagnosis, we spend much of our time—consciously or not—guessing about the future based on incomplete information. Unfortunately, decades of research indicate that humans are not very good at this. Most of us, for example, tend to vastly overestimate our chances of winning the lottery, while similarly underestimating the chances that we will get divorced.

Psychologists have tended to assume that such biases are universal and virtually impossible to avoid. But certain groups of people—such as meteorologists and professional gamblers—have managed to overcome these biases and are thus able to estimate probabilities much more accurately than the rest of us. Are they doing something the rest of us can learn? Can we improve our risk intelligence?

Yes. One of my better efforts at explaining that yes.

Article Excerpt: Source.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 16: Francisco Vaca Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Francisco Vaca
Francisco Vaca

My guest today is Francisco Vaca, the chairman, CEO, a principal trader for Vaca Capital Management, and a commodity trading advisor (CTA) established in 2000. Vaca began his career in the futures industry in 1996 as an executive researcher for C&D Commodities co-founded by Richard Dennis of “Turtles” fame. His responsibilities included the research and implementation of systematic trading strategies for the futures and equities markets. Dr. Vaca holds a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Chicago in addition to his undergraduate degrees in both physics and mathematics.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Bottom of the source of profits in the futures markets
  • Why people who are on the losing side of trades still play the game
  • Importance of diversification
  • Why you should take every signal you can

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Trend Following Little League Team

My first year Little League sponsorship emblazoned TurtleTrader on the uniform, but now a slight shift to be even more trend following inclusive:

Trend Following Little League Team


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Flight Plans with Trend Follower Kevin Bruce; No Battlestar Galactica Screens Needed

Trend follower Kevin Bruce once had the opportunity to go to New York and see one of the major brokerage firms’ trading floors. He found it like Battlestar Galactica, with more screens and lights than you could imagine. He decided: “I couldn’t think in this environment.” You can never make decisions when the market is open; everything is like a flight plan, it’s got to be pre-planned. Trying to make decisions when the market is open is going to lead to emotional decisions. Everything must be thought out ahead of time. Know what you are going to do if it goes up, if it goes down, and if it doesn’t do anything. When all that is figured out, you put your system on autopilot. It almost sounds too simple, but that’s the way you need to do it, and that’s why you don’t need to stress out about anybody’s opinion.

More? See: The Little Book of Trading.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Martin Klitzner of Sunrise Capital: In Memoriam

In putting together my book The Little Book of Trading I had the opportunity to talk with most of the office at Sunrise Capital. Marty Klitzner was one of the first people I met with there. He was President of Sunrise. From my perspective one of his roles was clearly as gatekeeper and I later learned that he was a good deal of the business success behind the firm. Unfortunately, Marty passed away on April 14, 2012 in Del Mar, CA.

I remain always thankful that men such as Marty, men with decades of trend following experience, would give me their time and knowledge.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 11: Tim Pickering Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Tim Pickering
Tim Pickering

My guest today is Tim Pickering, founder/president and lead portfolio manager of Auspice Capital. Pickering has over 15 years of commodity and financial trading experience. Prior to forming Auspice, Pickering was Vice President of Options Trading at Shell Trading Gas and Power in the Houston and Calgary offices. He began his career at TD Securities in Toronto in their elite trading development program and gained experience in a wide expanse of capital market products including foreign exchange, bonds, money markets and derivatives. Ultimately, Pickering held the Senior Trader position for the energy derivatives portfolio. He has extensive experience trading OTC and exchange traded options, futures, swaps and quantitative trend following systems.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Some of his beginnings
  • “Black boxes”
  • Indexing
  • Classical vs. “next generation” trend following

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