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Trend Following (and Me) Might Not Be for You

Seth Godin writes:

The fabled comedian is killing it at a club that seats 400. One guy in the back, though, isn’t laughing.

Miles Davis was shunned by a few people in the audience, even at his coolest.

The theater critic at the Times might not like this play, the one that made people cry and sold tickets for years.

And just about every blog post and book listing collects a trolling comment from someone who didn’t like it, didn’t read it or didn’t agree with it (or all three) and isn’t shy about speaking up with a sharp tongue.

For those people, the message from the creator of the work is clear: “It’s not for you.”

Unanimity is impossible unless you are willing to be invisible. We can be unanimous in our lack of feedback for the invisible one.

For everyone else, though, the ability to say, “It’s not for you,” is the foundation for creating something brave and important. You can’t do your best work if you’re always trying to touch the untouchable, or entertain those that refuse to be entertained.

“It’s not for you.”

This is easy to say and incredibly difficult to do. You don’t have much choice, though, not if you want your work to matter.

I could not say it better. My world might not be for you, but for those awake it is exactly for you.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“You certainly know how to connect the dots and express them with clarity and passion.”

Feedback in:

Michael, In one of your recent podcasts you pointed out Japanese investors and their risk aversion vs. their market’s performance over the past decades. When you next made the accusation that the same thing was happening among Americans you nailed it! It is exactly what is happening here, and, as you pointed out, it goes far beyond just investing in markets. You certainly know how to connect the dots and express them with clarity and passion. I only discovered your podcast a couple months ago but must say that I enjoy your insights and perspective while, alternately, so many other podcasts are so narrowly focused on what the S&P 500 will do in the next day-week-whatever. I find your thinking about how we engage the world around us similar to my own philosophy and will continue to listen and enjoy. Thank you for sharing. Regards,
Steven R.
Deerfield, IL USA

Thanks Steven. Appreciate the kind words.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

How I Look At The Markets

The markets are a science. Plain and simple. Some like to look at fundamentals and guess what will happen next. I like to look at the numbers. The facts. The only thing you can trust. Billion dollar hedge fund manager David Harding views the markets similarly:

Our approach to markets is a science. It is an unpublished science, but it is a real one. You would have thick leather-bound volumes of papers on it if there were a willingness to “open the kimono,” as the horrible modern expression has it. The process of trading our system is like repeatedly drawing different colored balls from the statistician’s apocryphal bag. As we draw out a ball it becomes part of the track record, and we put it back in the bag, but there is no guarantee that the balls will come out in the same order in the future.

Trend following is speculation in its purest form–find an edge and exploit it consistently over time. That attitude is critical for any entrepreneurial success. Throw the lottery mentality away. Forget the one hit wonder luck the press propagates to the masses of lemmings. Learn the real way to profit that goes against buy and hold (hope).


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 96: Critical Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Critical Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Critical Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Critical Thinking the Trend Following Way with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 95: Chris Kacher and Gil Morales Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Chris Kacher and Gil Morales
Chris Kacher and Gil Morales

My guests today are Chris Kacher and Gil Morales.

Kacher is the co-founder of TriQuantum Technologies, holding company for KJA wherein he is lead portfolio manager. Dr. Kacher’s metrics have called every major top & bottom in bitcoin since 2011 to within a few weeks of the top. He was up in 2018 vs the average performing crypto hedge fund at -54% (PwC).

Morales was personally recruited by Bill O’Neil himself to join William O’Neil + Company, Inc. as a Vice -President and Manager of the Institutional Services Division, responsible for advising over 600 institutional investor clients, and as an internal portfolio manager responsible for managing a portion of the firm’s proprietary, internal assets. From 1997 to 2005 he achieved a return of approximately 2100% in his portion of the firm’s proprietary account. In 2004 he was named Chief Market Strategist at William O’Neil + Company, Inc.

The topic is their book In The Trading Cockpit with the O’Neil Disciples: Strategies that Made Us 18,000% in the Stock Market.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The “O.W.L.” ethos, and the story behind it
  • Reversion to the mean mentality, and how it can often be the kiss of death for traders and investors
  • Trading psychology, the idea that “you must lose to win”, how the least important statistic is your percentage of gains v. losses in your trading account
  • Dealing with emotionalism and why clients often want to hear something that will make them feel better
  • Teaching people to let go of the news and simply watch the price action
  • Why people think that “this time is different”, put their trust in the central economy, and why trend following will survive into the future
  • Understanding that investing is always a process of changing along the way
  • What mental clutter in the way of fears, biases, concerns and more can build up in the mind and get in the way of clear and decisive decision-making

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 92: Cheat Sheet for Trading Success with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Cheat Sheet for Trading Success with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Cheat Sheet for Trading Success with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Cheat Sheet with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 91: The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.