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Category: Trend Following

Don’t Run Against the Wind… Go With the Flow

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Hi Michael, A quick note to thank you for the wonderful podcasts (and your books). I’ve been listening to them whenever I go for my runs a few times a week. And in the midst of all the market nonsense, these podcasts (TF-related or not) have kept me sane as I trade trends. TF is like running with the wind which may not come all the time. But when they do come (slow or fast & furious), I make sure I run with it, not against it. It’s easier that way. I sometimes wonder why people run against the wind. Press on with your work!

Warmest regards,
Francis

Thanks Francis!

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Prediction is for ‘Suckas’

Posted on by Michael Covel

From The Huffington Post:

“According to a survey by Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, effectively all economists agreed that stock prices are hard to predict. Only 59% of average Americans felt the same way.”

No surprise.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 157: Mike Bellafiore Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mike Bellafiore
Mike Bellafiore

My guest today is Mike Bellafiore, the co-founder of SMB Capital, a proprietary trading firm in New York City, and SMBU, its trader education company. Bellafiore also writes regularly for the globally popular SMBU blog, where he shares ideas on how to improve trading performance.

The topic is his book The Playbook: An Inside Look at How to Think Like a Professional Trader.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Real rewards to being a successful trader
  • Passion in trading
  • Why professional traders fail
  • Parallels between trading and writing
  • Bellafiore’s history and definitions of “prop trading”
  • Trading short timeframes and intraday trading
  • The “prop desk”
  • Ups and downs in Bellafiore’s career
  • The early history of SMB Capital
  • Bellafiore’s early struggles with his father’s health concerns, his mother’s death, an SEC investigation, and how “The PlayBook” came out of it
  • The ten attributes of a great trader
  • Trading psychology and mindset
  • Personality types and short-term trading
  • Microscalping and swing trading
  • Expertise, flow, and mastery
  • Process vs. outcome
  • Entrepreneurship
  • The importance of coaching
  • The four ways to become great at anything

Listen to this episode:

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You Have to Be Asleep to Believe It

Posted on by Michael Covel

Great video clip from George Carlin. He reiterates everything I talk about on my blog, in my books and on my podcast, “It’s called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.”:

My film on the same subject.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

17% Per Year?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Hey Mike, I’ve been wondering something about the returns of trend followers throughout the decades and I would like to hear your opinion. I believe I once heard you say that the average trend follower according to the data available indicates an average return of about 17% annually (Correct me if I’m wrong). However, I can’t help but think of the incredible returns of hundreds to thousands of percent that Jesse Livermore and others in day like Bernard Baruch (don’t know if he was a trend follower) was able to achieve. If I remember correctly, at one point, Livermore was doubling his money almost weekly. What do you think is the reason for such astronomical returns? I think there was more to it than just the 10 to 1 stock leverage of their era. Do you think it was because of Livermore’s poor money management? He did have a tendency to bet to entirely too much on his trades. Perhaps it was the combination of betting too much plus the 10:1 stock leverage. What do you think?

There is not some one set return number for Trend Following (i.e. 17%). Those old guys? You have their audited returns?

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Warren Buffet Meme: His View onDerivatives

Posted on by Michael Covel

Warren buffet meme says derivatives are weapons of mass destruction, then uses derivatives to make billions

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Time to Excel!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

So, I listened to Gerald Celente’s podcast interview today, during which there was a segment in which he almost went “off the cliff” in anger and disgust at the geopolitical, economic and social state of affairs we witness in today’s world. Lack of passionate viewpoint is not something he can be accused of. You were particularly quiet yourself at that point, graciously affording him the space to articulate in full where he was coming from. I’m curious what reactions you might have received from listeners? Thing is, how he feels and what he shared resonates. If One is of the glass half full tribe – as I wish to be – maybe even harbouring affinity for Kurzweil’s Singularity moment of arrival – we’re also on the cusp of some remarkable innovations and exciting times – there’s a silver lining on the horizon. Yet, something is awry. It feels as if we’re just spinning our wheels like a hamster, lots of activity but no real progress. We read familiar sources – Thomas Friedman, Seth Godin, Nassim Taleb, Niall Ferguson, [name], Alan Watts, Michael Mauboussin, Barry Ritholz, James Altucher, Gerald Celente – to name just a few. Regrettably, that’s where the similarities end! You live a different life, experience daily world in ways I can only imagine. When you’re in a position to really write your own ticket, today’s world – all chaos aside – is truly remarkable – as your own experience attests. Yet, the brutal reality is in my humble opinion, not everyone can do so. There’s just not enough “Categories of One” to go round. Really. And I cringe saying that as it smacks of scarcity thinking. But there, I’ve said it.

There is no short cut, but what is the alternative to not trying?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.