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Category: Trend Following

Ep. 251: Andrew Huszar Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Andrew Huszar
Andrew Huszar

My guest today is Andrew Huszar, a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program.

The topic is the direction of the Federal Reserve.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Looking at the short term
  • Black swans
  • Huszar’s history and how he came to work for the Federal Reserve
  • The changing of the banking model in the US from the 1980’s to the late 2000’s
  • Quantitative easing
  • Why Huszar ultimately left the Fed at the beginning of 2011
  • How the Fed has become over five times bigger in recent history
  • The current source of Wall Street money
  • The idea of an overly financialized US economy
  • The need for long-term structural changes in the US

Listen to this episode:

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Joe Kernen Doesn’t Like Being Questioned

Posted on by Michael Covel

This video with Joe Kernen and David Harding on CNBC led to Kernen getting a little testy on Twitter with me. An excerpt from Kernen and I:

Kernen: Oh yeah. [Harding] Great for an interview. Absolutely no predictions or forecasts about what might happen in the future.

Covel: So the interviewee blows if he can’t forecast tomorrow?

Covel: Why have a trader on who does not predict and then ask for a prediction?

Kernen: Why wrestle with pigs when all you get is dirty. Toodles.

Why so curt with me? I did rip him earlier here.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Process Is Not Easily Explained

Posted on by Michael Covel

This came across my desk recently:

Dear Mr. Covel, My name is [name] and I’ve read three of your books and have listened to over 50 of your podcasts. I’m emailing you because I have a project in which I need to interview a group of successful, yet secretive, professionals. They aren’t in the Managed Futures/Trend Following space. There will be a “secret sauce” that they will not want to give away, but obviously I need to get as much out of them as possible. The interviews will be conducted in person and via telephone/skype. My questions are:

1) What successful ways have you found to break the ice and establish rapport during the interview? I would certainly be viewed as an outsider to the industry.

2) What are some uncommon ways or tactics you have used to get the proverbial “foot in the door” with individuals who have been reluctant to accept your interview?

3) What am I offering in return for this interview? In many of your podcasts reciprocity can obviously being a great thing to get the author/guest to agree to the interview, but I’m struggling with how I might be creating value for my interviewee.

4) Any words of wisdom when it comes to this first stage of the project?

I appreciate your time and keep up the good work.

Sincerely,

[name]

Tough questions as much of what I do is instinctive now after years of practice (and of course all of my on air process is out there for all to see). It might not feel like a direct answer to your questions, but my list here is the best place to start. If you are really serious, you have some homework ahead of you.

Listen to my podcast with the creator of the Rocket Men documentary Robert Kurson.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 247: Van Tharp Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Van Tharp
Van Tharp

My guest today is Van Tharp, Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizard’s: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP. He has used his expertise in NLP to create the successful models of trading and investing upon which so much of his work is based.

The topic is his book Trading Beyond the Matrix: The Red Pill for Traders and Investors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Beliefs in the context of trading and investing
  • The moment of now, and the Navajo’s belief of a never-ending present
  • The belief examination paradigm
  • “Big money” and what it means to Van Tharp
  • The idea of “trader jail”
  • Fear of the unknown
  • The importance of sleep
  • The difference between spirituality and religion

Listen to this episode:

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Van Tharp

Fundamentals Alone Does Not Mean Connective Tissue

Posted on by Michael Covel

Gaping Void

Source: gapingvoid.com.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

5 Minute Bar or Weekly Bar: The Same Thing! Not Exactly the Same

Posted on by Michael Covel

Consider as a foundation to this post:

“The window on analysis is shrinking. People are moving so fast now that they don’t have time to think. They’re scanning, swiping, clicking, liking, tweeting and moving on at full velocity. They’re making decisions based on feelings, not facts. They are often choosing not because of what they think, but because of how something makes them feel.”

So, I was having a conversation with a guy online. A video out there had made the declarative statement that good trading was about switching between time frames: 5 minute bar to weekly bar to whatever. The video implied it’s all about switching. I said to this guy: “It sounds plausible to switch from 5 minute to weekly bar?” He offered:

Let’s say my trading approach is to trade when a particular technical pattern appears. Is it not plausible that I might look on a number of timescales to find instances of that pattern (either manually or getting a computer to do the spade work)?…However, personally I don’t think that published stats are the be all and end all [made in response to my call for empirical data]. For example, if someone who seems plausible tells me that they have traded the (say) the five minute chart using a particular method and made a profit over thousands of trades, I regard that as evidence. Also, I’m more interested in the theoretical underpinnings of a methodology than the empirical evidence, given that markets change and are designed to remove edges over time.

Try to make a system out of those feelings. Try to code those feelings. This inane interchange brought to mind a great line from Graham Greene’s The Quiet American:

“He was impregnably armored by his good intentions and his ignorance.”

Indeed. A failure to communicate:

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Paraphrasing Richard Feynman on “Price” Importance

Posted on by Michael Covel

Trend followers trade the “price”. It’s the number that can’t be faked, the real indicator of the past, now and the future. Richard P. Feynman adds:

“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world [think of all those so-called market fundamentals], but when you’re finished, you’ll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird…So let’s look at the bird and see what it’s doing — that’s what counts.”

What is the market doing right now? That’s what counts. The price.

richard feynman

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.