Category: Trend Following

The headlines are back to screaming. One morning, it is a trade tariff threat from Trump. By the afternoon, it is a retaliatory strike between Israel and Iran. The market whipsaws 3% in a single session, and the “experts” rush to the microphones. They are desperate to explain exactly why it happened.

Most traders treat the news like a crystal ball. They believe that if they can just understand the geopolitical chessboard, they will find the shortcut to profit. They think that if they can time the next escalation or the next policy shift, they have cracked the code.

That is a losing battle. It is a game played by people who want to be smart rather than profitable.

The Illusion of Control

You cannot “time” a war. You cannot “know” the internal logic of a world leader. When you trade based on fundamentals or the 24 hour news cycle, you aren’t trading the market. You are trading your own ability to predict the unpredictable.

The victims of the news cycle ignore the most fundamental law of the markets. If you don’t know where the yield is coming from, you are the yield.

The desire to “know” is a human impulse that trend following is designed to kill. We don’t care about the macro thesis. We don’t care about the “why” behind a price move. We care about the price itself. Price is the only truth in a world of political noise. It is the aggregate of every fear, every greed, and every geopolitical move. It is all distilled into a single, unarguable number.

Reacting vs. Predicting

Trend following can’t guarantee a profit at any single moment in time. What it can do is provide a smart process to handle total uncertainty. We don’t predict. We react.

When the geopolitical trend breaks, we exit. We don’t wait for an explanation or a peace treaty. We follow the system. We cut the loss. While the rest of the world is busy debating the news, the trend follower is busy following the math. Stop trying to solve the world’s problems. Start following the trend.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Screw Your Brain on Tight with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I listened to your podcast recently about value and decided to email you.

I read a few of your books years ago, but recently started thinking about trend following and trading again. I always used to think if you own a quality name like Nike or Oracle you could buy a bunch and never look again until retirement. Maybe even pass them on to your kids and grandkids. Your podcast definitely woke me up to the reality that happens with individual stocks. If we give up and just ‘buy the index’ we get paltry returns. My estimate is that the index tends to about keep up with the M2 money supply. So inflation.

I know you have several books but I don’t know where to start. What are some good ‘how to’ ideas for someone like me?

I know psychology is a big component so I recently purchased and read a few books from Van Tharp. They were very beneficial.

Do you have kickstart course for someone like me?

Best,
Sean

Right here!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

You see the screenshots. The P&L curves. The “lifestyle” shots of some guy in a rented villa, claiming he’s cracked the code with a secret indicator.

It’s all noise.

Worse than noise. It’s a trap for your psychology.

If you are checking your X feed to see what the “sentiment” is, you’ve already lost. If you are looking for validation from strangers on whether your long position is “right,” you aren’t a trader. You’re a seeker. And seekers get slaughtered.

The Feedback Loop of Nothing

Social media is designed to make you feel like you are missing out. It feeds the exact human impulses that trend following is designed to kill:

• The need to be right.
• The need to be first.
• The need for a story.

Trend following doesn’t care about your story. It doesn’t care about your “likes” or how many followers agree with your macro thesis.

The market is the only reality.

Price is the only truth.

The Ghost of 2021

Remember the endless GameStop screenshots?

The forums were a digital cathedral of “diamond hands” and rocket emojis. People posted gains every hour.

The mania had nothing to do with math. It had everything to do with belonging.

Then the trend broke.

The screenshots stopped. The “community” vanished.

The people who tied their happiness to that digital crowd didn’t just lose money. They lost their identity. They were trading for status, not for equity. When the status evaporated, they were left with nothing but a broken account and a bitter taste.

All that social media chatter? It didn’t save a single soul when the price turned.

Systems Over Status

Trend following is a tool for freedom.

It is a systematic approach to extract profit from human behavior. It is not a social club.

The best traders I know? You can’t find them. They aren’t posting “alpha.” They are out living. They have systems that run. They follow the rules. They take the signals.

Then they go for a walk. They travel. They spend time with people who don’t know what a moving average is.

If your happiness depends on the next tick, you cannot trade objectively. You become a slave to the screen.

Don’t get it twisted.

Validation online is a dopamine hit that lasts five seconds. A systematic edge lasts a lifetime.

If you want to win, stop looking for consensus. Stop scrolling for “conviction.”

The market is not your identity. If the Wi-Fi goes down and you panic, you don’t have a system.

Follow the price. Ignore the crowd.

Price decides. Not the noise.

The question is whether you are listening.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Nelson Dellis. He is a memory athlete and consultant. Nelson is a six-time USA Memory Champion, holding the record for most wins of the national memory champion title. Nelson also runs Climb 4 Memory, a nonprofit which aims to raise funds and awareness for Alzheimer’s disease research through mountain climbs around the world.

The topic is his book Everyday Genius: Hacks to Boost Your Memory, Focus, Problem-Solving, and Much More.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

• Memory techniques as systems and frameworks
• Pygmalion effect and belief shaping performance
• Memory as foundation for faster learning and creativity
• Training the brain like a muscle and preventing cognitive decline
• Name memorization using visualization and association

Mentions & Resources:

• Nelson Dellis
• Everyday Genius: Hacks to Boost Your Memory, Focus, Problem-Solving, and Much More
• Nelson Dellis Website

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel,

I hope you are doing well.

I recently purchased Trend Following Masters Volume 1 and Volume 2, and I truly enjoy your insights and perspective on trend following.

I noticed the message in the book about receiving the free interactive Trend Following presentation. I would be very grateful if you could share it with me. If needed, I would be happy to send you a photo of my purchase receipt as proof.

Thank you very much for your time and for writing such valuable books.

Best regards,
Suphakornzt T.
Thailand

You are welcome!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

Thanks a ton for your constant motivation and guidance, man. Your words and trading wisdom keep me grounded and hungry for more.

I’m putting in the work every single day and I promise you this: I will be a millionaire trader by 2030. And when that happens, I’m coming to meet you in person to express my gratitude and have coffee with you.

Until then, I’ll keep hustling and staying disciplined.

You are welcome!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.