I recently purchased Trend Following Masters Volume 1 and Volume 2, and I truly enjoy your insights and perspective on trend following.
I noticed the message in the book about receiving the free interactive Trend Following presentation. I would be very grateful if you could share it with me. If needed, I would be happy to send you a photo of my purchase receipt as proof.
Thank you very much for your time and for writing such valuable books.
Thanks a ton for your constant motivation and guidance, man. Your words and trading wisdom keep me grounded and hungry for more.
I’m putting in the work every single day and I promise you this: I will be a millionaire trader by 2030. And when that happens, I’m coming to meet you in person to express my gratitude and have coffee with you.
Until then, I’ll keep hustling and staying disciplined.
Just wanted to send this message to you and to thank you for the passionate amazing work that you’ve have done over the years with your books and your informative and decisive podcasts. You continue to drive home with incredible inspiration and passion what trend following is all about. Your podcasts get better all the time!! Please continue to drive home you’re knowledge and message with the same intensity as you’ve always done. Those that choose to listen will benefit in a big way and profit without a doubt, those that don’t will continue to live in their mommy’s basement in their tighty whities lol.
Again a BIG SHOUT OUT to you for the incredible work over the years. Please keep it going!!!
Precision is for surgeons. In the markets, and in life, precision is a trap.
Most people are paralyzed by the fear of being wrong. They want to be perfect before they start. They think a “good” record means a high success rate. They want the safety of the majority.
That mindset is a death sentence for your capital.
If you are obsessed with your “win rate,” you are playing a game of ego. You aren’t playing the game of math.
The Math of Greatness
Greatness is a numbers game. It is a brutal, high-volume, low-accuracy grind. The legends don’t win because they have a secret map to the truth. They win because they fail more than you do.
The data is clear:
Frank Sinatra: 1,200 songs recorded. Only 209 hits. That is a 17% success rate.
Babe Ruth: 8,399 attempts. Only 714 home runs. That is 8.5%.
Pablo Picasso: 150,000 pieces of work. Only 1,170 hits. That is a staggering 0.7%.
If Picasso were a modern fund manager, he would be fired in a month. A 0.7% “hit rate” looks like a disaster on a spreadsheet.
But Picasso didn’t care about the 148,830 pieces that didn’t change the world. He cared about the outliers. He understood that the math of greatness is skewed. You have to produce the junk to get to the genius.
The Accuracy Obsession
Most investors are trapped by the “Batting Average” fallacy. They want to be right 80% of the time. They look for the “sure thing.”
They think five losses in a row means the system is broken.
It isn’t.
If you are right 90% of the time but your 10% of losses wipe out your gains, you are a failure. If you are right 20% of the time but your winners are 50 times the size of your losses, you are a legend.
The market doesn’t pay you for being right. It pays you for being profitable. Those are two very different things.
The “experts” on TV sell you accuracy. They sell you the lie that they know what happens next. They are playing to your human desire for certainty.
Trend following plays to the math of reality.
Chasing the Outlier
In trend following, we don’t look for the “perfect” setup. We don’t try to guess which stock will be the next Picasso.
We take the signal. We enter.
Most of the time, the trend doesn’t develop. We take a small loss. We exit. We do it again.
We are Sinatra in the studio. Most of the tracks won’t be hits. That is the cost of doing business.
But when the trend catches? When we hit that 0.7% outlier? We don’t take a “quick profit.” We don’t cap our upside because we are afraid to lose what we’ve made.
We let the winner run.
The one massive trend pays for the hundred small cuts. You don’t need a high success rate when you have a massive slugging percentage.
The world rewards volume, not perfection
Those who win simply fail more times than everyone else. They have the discipline to stay in the game when the “hit rate” is low. They have the system to survive the 99% of attempts that don’t go anywhere.
If you are protecting your ego, you aren’t protecting your capital.
The lesson is simple. Stop trying to be right. Start trying to be in the game for the outliers.
The moment you accept that failure is the fuel for greatness, you stop being a victim of the market and start being a master of it.
I have found a secret door to success and I’m sure it’s a secret as so few people do it – hard work under the guidance of a professional (pit tested) trader.
Also, people say that trading is a get rich scheme and I agree, If I can be profitable with 3-4 years study (several thousand hours) I think that’s pretty quick, certainly no longer than any other professional. But I guess I don’t think like 90% of traders.
Your article was interesting. If we ever meet I’ll tell you about the Ponzi scheme that happened in my old career! It was ridiculous.
Most people don’t want a system. They want a savior. They want a shortcut that bypasses risk.
In 2018, PlusToken launched. It was a “smart crypto wallet.” The pitch? Deposit your Bitcoin. Buy their PLUS token. Watch 30% monthly returns roll in from “arbitrage.”
It was a high-tech veneer over a primitive Ponzi. 3 million people bought the story. By 2019, the music stopped.
The founders didn’t just vanish. They left a message on the app: “Sorry, we have run.”
That’s the most honest thing a scammer ever said. It’s the ultimate price signal for the delusional.
The Lie People Needed
PlusToken was a masterclass in social engineering. They didn’t just stay online. They ran workshops. They bought billboards in supermarkets. They created a hierarchy of greed. Titles like “Big Boy” and “Great God.”
The numbers are staggering.
180,000 BTC.
6.4 million ETH.
Total haul north of $3 billion.
None of it was traded. None of it was mined. It was new money paying old money. When the Chinese police finally moved, they seized $4.2 billion in assets. That money went to the national treasury. Not the victims.
The victims ignored the most fundamental law of the markets: If you don’t know where the yield is coming from, you are the yield.
Stories vs. Systems
Why did 3 million people buy in? They were focused on the forecast. 30% monthly gains. They were seduced by a future that hadn’t happened yet.
Trend following is the opposite. We don’t care about the “Great God” or the slick marketing. We care about price.
Price is the only truth. Everything else is a story told by someone trying to sell you something.
The market promises nothing. No guarantees. No safety. Only probabilities. A trend follower accepts that risk is the entry fee. We don’t predict. We react.
When PlusToken “ran,” the internal price didn’t matter because the exit was blocked. In a real market, when the trend breaks, you exit. You don’t wait for an explanation. You follow the system. You cut the loss.
Greed Makes You Blind
The founders didn’t trade anything. They dumped the money.
Thousands of tiny pieces. Through mixers. Through peel chains. The selling pressure was so massive it pushed Bitcoin down in late 2019.
The very people who thought they were “investing” were actually funding the heavy selling that crushed their own assets. They were blinded by social proof. Their friends were “making money,” so they assumed the system worked. They mistook a rising balance on a screen for wealth.
That is the “Big Boy” trap. The belief that you found a secret door to wealth that doesn’t require discipline or the acceptance of loss.
The 3 million people who lost everything didn’t have a trading problem. They had a philosophical problem. They believed in a “smart wallet” instead of a smart process.
The lesson is simple. Systems beat stories. Price beats promises.
The moment you believe in a savior instead of a system, you become the exit liquidity.
