I have actually been a pretty accomplished longer term fundamental investor. I had compounded around 15pct plus in the last fifteen years while paying most long term capital gains but that’s not really good enough for me as I’d like to make bigger returns without necessarily having hugely concentrated position. I had done a decent amount of reading in momentum and trend following, but still not quite putting the whole pieces together. I do think I can supplement my background in fundamental analysis in trend following strategy. My goal is to drive say 40-50pct return a year even if it is all just shorter duration trading.
I only daytrade the E-mini S&P because I have a sight disability that prevents me from watching more stuff. I do a top-down from monthly down to a 15 min chart. I am a trend trader for the most part but countertrade when I see it. Not that I know everything and I’m no master forecaster but I don’t know that your course will benefit me. 1. I can’t read a lot of stuff. 2. I’m unsure that I will learn anything that I’m not already doing. Been at it from the late 90s, Michael.
I must be blunt. That is a dead end strategy. Trend following is nothing what you describe.
Wow Mike, I’ll be blunt as well. You seem a bit tender in the ego zone. You may think you know what I do but you don’t. I retired at 50 years of age and make a 6 figure annual income daytrading part time. There is more to life than trading, making $$ and talking about it. My method of trading is very simple with minimal risk. I’m flat and happy at the end of each day. I don’t claim to be a guru but at 72 years of age, I’m doing just fine, thank you. I’ve traded stocks, oil, gold, beans, dax, bonds, Eurodollar, BP, calls, puts, et al, you name it I’ve traded it. But you know what, I don’t need to trade anything other than the E-mini S&P at this time. Not saying there’s no room for improvement, there always is for everyone including you. I’m sure I could learn something from you and am equally sure you could learn a thing or two from me as well. If you don’t know when and where the worm will turn and execute some precise countertrend trades then you are leaving a lot of $$ on the table because it’s easy enough to go with the flow.
My guest today is Alan Dunne. He is the CEO of Archive Capital. Alan has worked in the financial markets for over 25 years at global macro and managed futures hedge funds and large investment banks as a CIO, hedge fund allocator, macro strategist, and technical analyst. Prior to founding Archive Capital, he was Managing Director and a member of the investment committee at Abbey Capital. Alan started his career as a foreign exchange analyst and trader, working for Bank of America in London, Hong Kong, and Singapore and for BNP Paribas in emerging markets before returning to Dublin to join Allied Irish Capital Management, a global macro commodity trading advisor. He was subsequently Investment Director of Royal Bank of Scotland’s wealth management business in Ireland where he headed the investment team and was responsible for asset allocation.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
FED tightening policy to impact inflation
Trend following and other types of strategy
The Bayesian approach to decision-making
How quantitative trend following tactics are growing in Asian countries
Sticking long enough with one strategy before deciding if it works or not! The market is not the enemy, I am!
What is your system and time frame?
As of the last few weeks I’ve started to look at trend following again. I first had a dabble about 10 years ago, my early days investing in funds. I read the excellent book ‘Little Book of Trading’ (Covel book) you may of heard of it! I found it very inspiring. But once again I didn’t stick with it long enough. I would like to hold for the medium to long term but I always pull the plug after a few weeks/months of underwhelming performance.
• Exact rules for selecting your tracking portfolio.
• Exact rules for entering your trades at the right time.
• Exact rules for exiting your trades with a loss.
• Exact rules for exiting your trades with a profit.
• Exact rules for how much money to bet on each trade.