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“Putting a big stop loss on a volatile share ahead of trading update only for a disappointing update…”

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The mental aspect of dealing with silly losses is hard to get over…recent drop in bitcoin, 20% drop, I did not have a stop loss and despite getting out with a healthy 100% profit still hurts I could have kept that to 10%. I have only 12 months experience. Grown my portfolio from £17k to £44k in the 12 months steadily, profit is currently £2k (after fees). I was in the red after 6months and since have steadily turned a profit or broken even every month; came out of red in January 2021. I don’t day trade but are fairly active trader (5 – 10 trades in a month, UK and US); most holdings are 3 – 6 months; some held for last 12 months. Losses have come from mainly 5 trades and was in hindsight overweight on these, so losses were big hits. Not putting a stop loss when I thought I should but thought I could react without one. Only for the SP to drop sharply on bad news. Recent Tech stocks drops. I put a stop loss too tight and was taken out only for the SP to gain significantly shortly after. Putting a big stop loss (still at a profit level) on a volatile share ahead of trading update only for a disappointing update to cause the SP to gap below my stop loss and cause a loss (30% profit turned to 10% loss) the SP later in the same day recovered at what would had been a breakeven level; (should have hedged my bets and taken some profit ahead of news).

Enjoying your book, only started this last month to use trend trading principles.

Ricardo

What is your strategy?

My minimum goal is to grow my portfolio to £320k over 10years; adding on average from my fulltime job earnings £1k every month. I calculate that is about 8% compounded annual growth from where I am now. My aspiration is to make this a substantial added monthly income to support my retirement and not be always reliant on current 9-5 job. Strategy started as combination of value (companies hit by the pandemic) and growth (companies doing well from pandemic) largely based on media/news information and genral internet investment sites and magazines. I started passive (buy and hold) but in current volatile market that led to big losses pretty quickly on some stocks I should have sold. Last 6 months, my strategy is still a combination of value and growth but managed more active in terms of cutting losses and adding more stocks. My risk has generally been managed by keeping my initial position small; I tend to start with one of three amounts (£400 – £700 – £1000) depending on confidence level. That is perhaps something I need to change because working with small position means I can tolerate big percentage drops in any one stock without feeling I must sell but when I have multiple small positions these drops quickly add up. It also leads to perhaps too many stocks (over 70) to actively manage and cumulative risk is perhaps higher. I am considering reducing my number of stocks and increasing my positions but manage risk through the use of appropriate stop loss level keeping my risk to £150 per trade and aim for a risk/reward ratio. I started only this month looking at trend following and how I can incorporate the principle in my existing portfolio and going forward.

Ricardo

Why not stop all of that and go trend following?


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“If I go short, how can I protect myself from a short squeeze forcing me to return the security at a higher price than I received when I took the short position…”

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Hi Michael,

I am trying to build my own ‘Dragon Portfolio’ as outlined in Chris Cole’s whitepaper titled ‘THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT.’ Commodity trend following is a big part of this portfolio. Chris Cole suggests a simple approach of taking a short or long position on an ETF tracking commodity prices based on whether the current price is above or below the 50 day moving average. If I go short, how can I protect myself from a short squeeze forcing me to return the security at a higher price than I received when I took the short position?

Thank you

Arend

I teach trend following. You don’t trade one market alone leaving yourself open to a short squeeze with trend following.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 966: William Green Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

William Green
William Green

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My guest today is William Green. He has written for many publications in the US and Europe, including Time, Fortune, Forbes, Fast Company, The New Yorker, The Spectator (London), and The Economist.

The topic is his book Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World’s Greatest Investors Win in Markets and Life.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The Greatest American Investors
  • The Greatest Investment Minds
  • Catastrophe and Survival
  • Interviewing The Greatest Investors Experience

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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“My biggest challenge is the usual one, buy high and sell lower (mainly due to fear, I guess)…”

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Dear Michael, my biggest challenge is the usual one, buy high and sell lower (mainly due to fear, I guess). I have recently listened to your last 50 podcasts. Have just bought Trend Following book , Complete Turtle Trader and Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards. I already have bit of an idea and have started looking at all my stocks with EMA monthly and weekly and did see how late I sold, instead of selling much earlier, when the trend changed. Thank you for your podcast and for your books, I wish I knew about them many years ago. Best regards, Z.

Keep going on trend following. Start here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“But in the last month or two, I feel that I have lost my compass as sector rotation continues to see saw back and forth…”

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I have been very pleased with the last two years of trading. But in the last month or two, I feel that I have lost my compass as sector rotation continues to see saw back and forth. I searching for a trend!

It doesn’t sound like you have an exact strategy?

Michael. Oh but I do. I use a combination of Chaikin Analytics and Ichimoku and more. Chaikin provides choices and timing. 27 factors measure fundamentals displayed as red Bear yellow neutral and green bullish. Chaikin Money flow shows institutional buying the oscillator show over sold over bought and relative strength shows strength vs SPY ( I know you hate benchmarking). Screening capabilities and signals also compliment the package. Approach is to identify best assets class sectors then find the best stock or commodities within the sector (or if playing from the short side the worst. Bottom line finds me stocks to consider. Ichimoku gives direction ADX movement potential. With risk management of 3 times the Average trade volume to get out of the trade I don’t use price targets or length of time. As mentioned below right now I’m struggling with finding what are the best sectors. VALUE Real estate | Utilities health care and consumer durables are in a tug of war with GROWTH Tech, Energy, consumer discretionary. I’m of the believe that we are undergoing a rotation but can’t find a direction, thus no trend should just mean I should go on a fishing trip and come back when the markets make up their mind! Each year I have a 30 page document that outlines my trading discipline, strategy, risk management, diversification, position size and more. I am reading your trend following book a chapter a day and have enjoyed the concept. I particularly enjoy the quotes on the side. Today’s winner was Aristotle We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence is not an act, but a habit.

That is all a dead end. Every bit of it. This is straight from the numerous technical analysis cookbooks out there. Run!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 965: The Tom Basso Book with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue The Tom Basso Book with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

New Tom Basso Trend Following Book

Out now April 2021. Enjoy!

Trend Following Mindset.

Trend Following Mindset
Trend Following Mindset

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.