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The $3.3 billion “sorry”

Most people don’t want a system. They want a savior. They want a shortcut that bypasses risk.

In 2018, PlusToken launched. It was a “smart crypto wallet.” The pitch? Deposit your Bitcoin. Buy their PLUS token. Watch 30% monthly returns roll in from “arbitrage.”

It was a high-tech veneer over a primitive Ponzi. 3 million people bought the story. By 2019, the music stopped.

The founders didn’t just vanish. They left a message on the app: “Sorry, we have run.”

That’s the most honest thing a scammer ever said. It’s the ultimate price signal for the delusional.

The Lie People Needed

PlusToken was a masterclass in social engineering. They didn’t just stay online. They ran workshops. They bought billboards in supermarkets. They created a hierarchy of greed. Titles like “Big Boy” and “Great God.”

The numbers are staggering.

180,000 BTC.
6.4 million ETH.
Total haul north of $3 billion.
None of it was traded. None of it was mined. It was new money paying old money. When the Chinese police finally moved, they seized $4.2 billion in assets. That money went to the national treasury. Not the victims.

The victims ignored the most fundamental law of the markets: If you don’t know where the yield is coming from, you are the yield.

Stories vs. Systems

Why did 3 million people buy in? They were focused on the forecast. 30% monthly gains. They were seduced by a future that hadn’t happened yet.

Trend following is the opposite. We don’t care about the “Great God” or the slick marketing. We care about price.

Price is the only truth. Everything else is a story told by someone trying to sell you something.

The market promises nothing. No guarantees. No safety. Only probabilities. A trend follower accepts that risk is the entry fee. We don’t predict. We react.

When PlusToken “ran,” the internal price didn’t matter because the exit was blocked. In a real market, when the trend breaks, you exit. You don’t wait for an explanation. You follow the system. You cut the loss.

Greed Makes You Blind

The founders didn’t trade anything. They dumped the money.

Thousands of tiny pieces. Through mixers. Through peel chains. The selling pressure was so massive it pushed Bitcoin down in late 2019.

The very people who thought they were “investing” were actually funding the heavy selling that crushed their own assets. They were blinded by social proof. Their friends were “making money,” so they assumed the system worked. They mistook a rising balance on a screen for wealth.

That is the “Big Boy” trap. The belief that you found a secret door to wealth that doesn’t require discipline or the acceptance of loss.

The 3 million people who lost everything didn’t have a trading problem. They had a philosophical problem. They believed in a “smart wallet” instead of a smart process.

The lesson is simple. Systems beat stories. Price beats promises.

The moment you believe in a savior instead of a system, you become the exit liquidity.

P.S. The world is on a precipice, but your portfolio doesn’t have to be. Between the closed Strait of Hormuz and the $7 trillion erased from global equities this quarter, most investors are paralyzed, waiting for a “savior” or a headline to tell them it’s safe. They are trading on hope; we are trading on reality.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1384: Daniel Coyle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Daniel Coyle
Daniel Coyle

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My guest today is Daniel Coyle. He is an author whose work explores how people and groups grow, perform, and thrive. He combines immersive field reporting with behavioral science to create practical frameworks for building skill, culture, and meaningful connection.

The topic is his book Flourish: The Art of Building Meaning Joy and Fulfillment.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Purpose vs success and hollow achievement
  • Flourishing as joyful meaningful growth
  • Complexity vs complicated systems thinking
  • Shared improvement and community over self improvement
  • AI impact and human connection revival

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

“I was following silly monkeys instead of smart individuals…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I’m looking forward to reading your trend following book and must say your style of writing is intriguing.

My style of trading has been monkey see monkey do. Unfortunately I was following silly monkeys instead of smart individuals. I lost a nice inheritance trading options thinking I knew something when the market proved I didn’t.

Now, I am back to my original foray into the market by using equity option spreads and treading water.

At 73 I have very little money to invest and less time to make it.

Any help will be most appreciated.

Sincerely,
Brown

My book — best first step!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Do you think your course would still provide significant additional value…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I hope you’re doing well.

I’ve been a big big fan of your work for quite a while now. I’ve read most of your books and recently started going through your podcast episodes, which I’ve really been enjoying. Your approach to trend following has had a major influence on how I think about markets and risk.

At this point, I feel like I have a solid grasp of the core concepts you teach. I also understand the importance of diversification across markets, keeping correlation low, and focusing on long-term expectancy rather than individual trade outcomes. Concepts like position sizing as the real edge, asymmetry of returns, and the psychological discipline required to stick with a system through drawdowns are all things I actively incorporate.

That said, I’m at a stage where I’m trying to figure out whether going deeper, specifically through your course, would meaningfully improve my results, or whether I’m already covering most of the practical ground through your books and podcast.

So I wanted to ask you directly: based on what I’ve described, do you think your course would still provide significant additional value? In particular, does it go beyond the conceptual framework into more detailed implementation, nuances, or things that aren’t fully captured in your published material?

I really respect your work, so I figured it made sense to ask you honestly before making the investment.

Thanks again for everything you’ve put out over the years. It’s been incredibly helpful.

Best regards,
Mike A.

Short answer, I can’t say. You’re writing to me — so you’re missing something in your mind. You might need some confirmation on an issue or some support from me. It sounds like you know a lot, but you feel like you’re missing something?


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Larry mentioned something like trading credibility…”

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

I hope you are doing well.

First, I wanted to sincerely thank you for your interviews with Larry Hite. I have learned a great deal from them, and I really appreciate the depth and quality of your conversations with him.

There is one point I wanted to ask you about. I seem to remember hearing in one of your interviews that Larry mentioned something like trading credibility or correctness being around 70%. I may be misunderstanding or misremembering it, so I wanted to ask whether that is accurate, or whether I got the idea wrong.

I also wanted to ask about Larry Hite himself. I hope he is doing well and is in good health. If you are able to share, is he still doing well? And if appropriate, is there any way for people who admire and respect him to reach out and send their regards?

Thank you again for all the valuable work you do.

Best regards,
Mohammed A.

Trading signals in trend following are typically correct 35-40% of the time. I can’t offer an update on Larry, except to say he’s awesome!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I’ve seen trend following strategy public results with commodities…”

Feedback in:

I’ve seen trend following strategy public results with commodities and stocks but what about forex? Does it work with same results or it may be a difference in this case?

Jorgo Z.

Trend following on currencies works. More money has been made trading currencies as TF than any other market. Of course, as part of a TF portfolio process.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.