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Feedback in:

Hello Michael,

My husband, [Name] and I watched your presentation today with delight, from the comfort of our home in Nova Scotia, through live streaming facilitated by Stansberry Research. Trend following, as a more successful approach to investing, makes a great deal of sense to us. We will order your books to learn as much as possible on the subject; meanwhile may we take you up on your offer to send us references of where to locate the three research papers you indicated as well as the list of momentum ETFs you recommend as well as your PowerPoint presentation?

Many thanks and best wishes for continued success in trend following,
[Name]

Thanks!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Howard Marks, an investor, writer and author of “Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.” After working in senior positions at Citibank early in his career, Howard joined The TCW Group, Inc. in 1985. He led groups within the company responsible for investments in distressed debt, high yield bonds, and convertible securities. After 10 years at The TCW Group, Inc. he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management.

The topic is his book Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

• High yield bonds
• Financial cycles
• Sub prime bubble
• Dot-com crash
• Continued learning by reading
• Risk management
• Decision making

Mentions & Resources:

• Howard Marks
• Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
• Oaktree Capital
• Mike Milken
• @howardmarksbook

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Listen on Stitcher.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

Feedback in:

Hey,

The podcast is fire! The 4-hour Tom Basso marathon on Ep #678 is a true wealth of knowledge.

I also really enjoyed Ep #689. Where you shoot straight from the hip at the people hating on you for speaking about trend, something that you’ve spent many years of your life learning. Love the passion & the honesty.

Bravo,
[Name]

PS – It reminds me of the “Man in the Arena” Quote we all love:

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.“

Nice!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Food for thought:

• 10 Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned For Asset Management
• The problems with Academia
• Explaining the Correction, with Perfect Hindsight
• Bank of America Is Missing Out on Wall Street’s Boom
• Bankers Are Worried About Sky-High Commercial Real Estate Prices
• The PermaBear to English Translation Guide
• A $1 Trillion Powder Keg Threatens the Corporate Bond Market
• “Here we go again”
• The Psychology Behind Managing A 20 Bagger
• When Markets Tank, Do This
• The Financial Wisdom of G.K. Chesterton
• Amazon Partners With Audi For The E-Tron SUV

Enjoy.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Run Rabbit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

• Money management
• Trend following psychology
• Human nature in markets
• Minimizing losses
• Buying the breakout
• Crowd psychology

Mentions & Resources:

• “Market Wizards”
• Larry Hite
• Ed Seykota

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Listen on Stitcher.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

A trend following understanding via Bayesian thinking:

Let’s imagine that you and a friend have spent the afternoon playing your favorite board game, and now, at the end of the game, you are chatting about this and that. Something your friend says leads you to make a friendly wager: that with one roll of the die from the game, you will get a 6. Straight odds are one in six, a 16 percent probability. But then suppose your friend rolls the die, quickly covers it with her hand, and takes a peek. “I can tell you this much,” she says; “it’s an even number.” Now you have new information and your odds change dramatically to one in three, a 33 percent probability. While you are considering whether to change your bet, your friend teasingly adds: “And it’s not a 4.” With this additional bit of information, your odds have changed again, to one in two, a 50 percent probability. With this very simple example, you have performed a Bayesian analysis. Each new piece of information affected the original probability, and that is Bayesian [updating].

Bayes’s Theorem is part of trend following logic.

More.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

From Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 Google Talk on the promotional tour for Thinking Fast And Slow:

“Intuitive expertise is not going to develop in a chaotic universe… I personally do not believe that stock pickers can develop intuition… there isn’t enough regularity in what’s going to happen to prices for intuitions to develop. When there are marginal situations where there is some predictability but poor, formulas do better than individuals… that is the domain where formulas beat individuals regularly is the domain of fairly low predictability, because when there are weak cues, people are not very good at picking them up and are not good at using them consistently, but formulas can be generated on the basis of experience and they will do a better job than individual judgement.”

Building off the Nobel winner comes the richest guy ever Jeff Bezos:

“When we make mistakes, and we’ve made doozies, like the Firephone and many other things that just didn’t work out–we don’t have enough time for me to list all of our failed experiments, but the big winners pay for thousands of failed experiments.”

#trendfollowing

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.