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Please enjoy my monologue Keep Going with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.
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G’day Michael,
Just thought I’d drop you a quick email to thank you for all the great information on both your books and website.
I wrote to you in June of last year when I was resurrecting my trend following career. I’ve been going through all your podcasts right from the first one. It’s my entertainment while doing my imagination killing job.
One coincidence here is that I mentioned that I was trading a system back in 2001-2002, what I didn’t mention was that my broker over that time was none other than Nick Radge, great bloke. My one regret is that I had not come across your books (even though I think you had several under publication at the time) and so even though I was trading a trend following system I did not know about the drawdowns or the mechanics. I didn’t have powerful testing software, all my backtesting was done on Excel and I didn’t have the data to see how it performed during a severe downturn. I hit the 20% down point and pulled the plug at exactly the time I should have been getting more excited. If one could only turn back time.
I picked up the latest edition of the Trend Following book for my library and I bought another as a birthday gift for someone else.
Thanks for the inspiration and keep up the great work.
All the best.
[Name]
Welcome!
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes
My guest today is David Weinberger, an American technologist, professional speaker, and commentator, probably best known as co-author of the Cluetrain Manifesto (originally a website, and eventually a book, which has been described as “a primer on Internet marketing”). Weinberger’s work focuses on how the Internet is changing human relationships, communication, knowledge and society.
The topic is his book Everyday Chaos: Technology, Complexity, and How We’re Thriving in a New World of Possibility.
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Michael,
Enjoyed the foundation podcast, had a few thoughts on the financial advisor perspective, having been one for 20 years. I have tried to introduce trend following into my practice, but the struggle is the same as the buy and hold struggle, in that people ultimately have to take enough personal responsibility to have some understanding to logically evaluate the investment process we are using to try and accomplish their goals. If they don’t, eventually they will come to a point that causes a them to make an emotional decision.
Your work has changed my life, and I am attempting to pass that on. Have given many friends your books, have never had someone come back as excited as I was after reading. I take that as proof why trend following will always work!
I read once that Warren Buffet always told his family that they should invest in Treasury Bonds, guess he probably knew their emotions would get the better of them.
Thank you always!
Chris
Thanks!
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
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Michael,
Thanks for all the great updates and also great information from the lessons. I hope you’re enjoying China. I’m about five hours into listening to your Trend Following Book and also decided to pick up your Turtle Trading. I really couldn’t help myself with all the references to the intriguing Richard Dennis and also think this is an amazing book! I actually listened to almost through chapter 5 of Turtle currently so I’m perhaps a quarter through each! I agree with you too that I think this would be an amazing movie and I could see it similar to the MIT/Vegas movie (21, adapted from Bringing Down the House or even a more serious Trading Places focusing on the retro pop culture that you sprinkle into the book with Trend Trading). I loved your opening quotation and so many things so far about the book. I wondered if you already had a script. I’m not doing this currently at all but I used to be writing scripts (TV/Film) and could really see this as a film. I’m currently focusing on trying to learn the stock market and trading with balancing my day job and trying to hold this down (academic technology for an academic library system) so learning the stock methodologies and my job is enough but your books and the characters did really get me thinking regarding a great movie! I wondered why this hasn’t been made yet! I hope you do this as I could see it as an amazing feature. I also just printed the notes for your Turtle Trading book as I bought this through Audible. I find with time constraints it easier to listen to ;your books on the way to work etc. to fit these in. Really great and I really appreciate all of your amazing diligent work. This is also simply in the way of a suggestion but it would be good to also include for the audio version pdf (Audible) in the notes the formula’s throughout this chapter (i.e the risk expectancy that begins this chapter, computing n and the average true range etc.) and to keep this in mind for future notes. This would also be very helpful. I’m going to have to listen to this chapter again but also probably also a great motivation to buy the text copy, lol! Well, thank you for the wealth of information here and also the great inspirational tone of the work!!
Wishing you the best,
Ray
Ray [name]
San Marcos, Texas
Thanks! Notes you need just emailed.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes
Please enjoy my monologue A Beijing Journey with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.
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Hi Michael,
Your podcasts, intertwined with my reading, keep bringing up ideas. One of the recent ideas is the topic of Type 1 vs Type 2 errors.
I was reading in (I think) “Thinking in Bets,” that we all have a ‘bias to believe.’ We want to believe, and we often get stuck and intertwine our belief with our identity.
The author describes our evolutionary heritage as a possible reason for our desire to believe. For example, if we hear some rustling in the bushes, it is in our interest to move or run, as it may be a Lion. If we don’t move or run, and it is a lion, we die, a type 1 error. Yet, if we don’t run, even if the odds are 1000:1, we are dead the last time, a type 2 error.
So it is good to be ‘safe,’ in this world.
In a recent podcast, discussing the Turtles, and investing: the concept of making type 1 errors was also ‘ok,’ but it is not good to make a type 2 error.
While the consequences are not a dire, a type 1 error, the downside can be addressed by: 1. limiting an investment amount/Kelly criterion, or having 2. stop losses. What we don’t want to miss is the Type 2 error, of missing the (potentially) unlimited upside–which we can’t predict, and don’t know when they will happen.
The insight that you described, along these lines, is that the APPEARANCE of safety, in the type1 scenario, leads to mediocrity or being average. WHILE the actual value, the actual living life, the actual big gains to be had, are NOT getting involved, thus making a type2 error. The error of Opportunity Cost, etc.
I really didn’t think that I would use these statistical definitions outside of a classroom, yet here it is… and this idea of type1 and type2 errors, and how to act once they are understood, now have real life.
I expect these ideas will now be part of my broader conversations, and actions.
Thanks for the podcasts,
(and I am one of your premium members of Trend following [Flagship]… still studying and learning)
Best,
Michael [name]
Thanks!
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.