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“I derived a trend following approach almost exactly similar Darvas…”

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Hello Mike,

Many thanks for all your efforts with the books and podcasts – powerful material and delivery. Enjoyable to listen to and read and has been impactful for me.

I hope you are getting rich and find the whole process fulfilling!

I have been trading stocks and developing technical trading models for over 20 years based on a long list of technical indicators, mean reversion, bottom fishing, and occasionally some fundamental calls. And I have decades of mediocre or losing results to prove it – exactly as you describe.

Literally, by math evolution and basic strategic thinking and common sense, I derived a trend-following approach almost exactly similar Darvas and the Turtles last December. So, three independent derivations of the same idea.

Then, around 3 months ago I bought your book (Trend Following) and listen to your Podcasts which have been very valuable and I continue to learn and adapt a lot. You’ve added a whole new positive dimension to my commute to my day-job. Thank you!

After decades of laborious efforts (easily 10,000+ hours) and frustrating results, I finally have confidence that I have a model strategy that will work. Your media publications have validated my life’s work and the recent trend-following breakthrough I experienced.

Anyway, regarding your question I finally feel little frustration in trading since the results are consistent with percentages I read in your various books (50% win rate, 20%+ annual returns, whip-saws, drawdowns of significance, etc.) and are delivering expected results. And my math models also validate these numbers – so the truth and reality is converging which is comforting and eliminates a lot of anxiety on the whole topic.

Thanks again for all – keep it up!

Roger

You are welcome.

“I know that I need to create a plan to treat trading as a business…”

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Hi Michael,

Thank you for asking. At this stage of mine, which is absolute beginner as a technical trader who had had “lucky” outcomes doing “fundamental” trading in the past, I am learning on my own to find out about myself as a trader psychologically, about the markets that I will accessing and trading, and about the trading systems that will provide the right tools and platform for me to trade with peace of mind. Just in case you are wondering why I decided to change from trading fundamental to technical, the reason is that I have stopped trusting anything that is made available for me in the mainstream media after witnessing the events in the financial market since 2008. Just to clarify that I am not being bitter. I didn’t have any positions to speak of in 2008 so I wasn’t hurt by it. I was left terrified nonetheless how the markets were so dishonest and set up to victimize people like myself.

I know that I need to create a plan to treat trading as a business, and I am going to stick to it. Why I know I can stick to it is because it is what I need to control my fear of trading my money in the markets. There are so many unknown factors outside of my control when it comes to trading. I want to be in control of the known factors as much as possible. On the other end of the spectrum is the unknowable, I don’t spend much time on worrying about that because there is nothing I can do about the unknowable such as whether a particular instrument is going to keep going up for me to realize returns. I am going to following trends.

To answer your question, for me the great murky grey middle such as when, where, and how I trade is what I find challenging in the manners of knowing and getting the right information that I trust to create the trading process that fits me.

Regards,
Helen

Start here.

Ep. 785: Daniel Cable Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Daniel Cable
Daniel Cable

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One of our fundamental desires as humans is our need to feel useful. The process of creating something or building a skill is at the center of a fulfilling life.

This is problematic when you consider the world we live in today. So many jobs are characterized by menial tasks, endless meetings, and little tangible impact. How can we redefine the way we get things done to better reflect our basic needs?

Dan Cable is Professor of Organizational Behavior at London Business School, and he believes he has the answer, or at least the tools, to equip people that want more out of their nine-to-five existence. His book Alive at Work shows many of the reasons for unhappiness at work. Organizations aren’t encouraging us to explore and learn, so we often find ourselves only partially engaged in work. The book is filled with real-world examples and outlines how both employees and leaders can ignite the curiosity and passion that drives us to achieve.

Dan’s research and teaching focus on employee engagement, change, organizational culture, leadership mindset, and the linkage between brands and employee behaviors. Dan was selected for the 2018 Thinkers50 Radar List, The Academy of Management has twice honored Dan with “Best article” awards, and The Academy of Management Perspectives ranked Dan in the “Top 25 most influential management scholars.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Neuroscience of Helping Your People Love What They Do

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“I can safely say the battle I’ve faced over the years is making things too complicated and asking too many questions…”

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Dear Michael,

I hope you are well.

I can safely say the battle I’ve faced over the years is making things too complicated and asking too many questions.

When I follow simple rules based on movements in price that even the most novice observer can see I do well. I usually have this approach after a period away from the markets.

When I try to out-smart a market and assume something will happen that isn’t happening then I do badly. This nearly always occurs after a period of intense trading.

As someone whose been educated to university level I’ve erroneously assumed in the past that market behaviour is better understood with complex systems when in fact the most simple of methods have worked best for me in the long run.

Maintaining that simplicity has been my single hardest challenge.

After years of fighting inner demons I’ve realised how important it is to follow the trend, keep it simple and stop asking too many questions about things I cannot predict.

Kind regards,

Ben C.
Somerset
UK

Wise words. People can dig in here.

“My aim is to follow your mini course and get some answers…”

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Hi Michael,

First of all thanks for making this information available. Since I listened to the audio book TurtleTrader my trading methodology was transformed. I turned a profit on my commodities trading account for the first time ever last month. The podcasts and interviews at the end of the audible audio book is really inspiring and I enjoyed them.

I have had a few misses this month and I realize I need more information on stop loss positions and firming up on my exit strategy as I get nervous when there is a pull-back or bounce in the prices.

My aim is to follow your mini course and get some answers to the issues I have mentioned above. I know you have dealt with them in the book but it escaped me in the excitement of finding a system that actually makes me money.

Kind regards,
Mr. [name]
East London – South Africa

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“I congratulate you for your job. It’s is very detailed and mindful…”

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Michael,

Good Morning! I’m Claudio C. I congratulate you for your job. It’s is very detailed and mindful. This concept is for you–it may help in your path: Ichi Go Ichi E. It is about the importance of the moment, here and now. I learned it in martial arts (Bujinkan).

About the biggest challenge I’ve faced in trading? My biggest challenge was to design a robust algorithm to trade some or any markets, after reading your book “Trend Following” I can translate key concepts in an algorithm and test it. It was a 3 year learning curve. After this I decided to start a little company. I think that reading your book after a travel in the traditional Japan helped me to understand you.

Nowadays I’m reviewing your podcasts with attention then I continue learning key concepts about trend following and life.

Thanks, Claudio.

Welcome!