Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Decide Well, Live Well
Decide Well, Live Well

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Today’s mega combo episode is Chris Voss, Robert Cialdini, Philip Tetlock, Spyros Makridakis, and Tim Ferriss.

Chris Voss is the author of, Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It. Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases.

Robert Cialdini is best known for writing Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are six key principles of influence he teaches. His new book, Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade, introduces a seventh key principle of influence.

Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, is probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting.

Spyros Makridakis is Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions.

Tim Ferriss is an author, blogger and motivational speaker known for his bestselling books. Tim has revolutionized the idea of writing a book; he has engineered the process of a bestseller.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Aversion to negotiation
  • Negotiating skills
  • Never pretend people are rational
  • Business negotiations compared to hostage negotiations
  • Lying three times
  • “How” and “Why” questions
  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at data
  • Location independence
  • 80/20 rule
  • Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
  • Uncertainty
  • How to publish a book

Mentions & Resources:

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Jesse Livermore: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore’s bio ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ is always good reading (PDF).


“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”

“Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”

“You watch the market — that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape with one object: to determine the direction. Prices, we know, will move either up or down according to the resistance they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline; and vice versa.”

“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”

Jesse Livermore Books:

• How to Trade in Stocks (PDF)
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (PDF)

Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore

“I am addicted to your podcast…”

Feedback in:


I am addicted to your podcast because it is so much more than “trend following”, as the real trend is not in the stock market or any financial market, but in lifestyle and how we interact with those around us.

I am currently listening to your podcast Episode 600 interview with Roger Ver, and it keeps bringing me back to [Name] of The [Name] Podcast. He has a unique and valuable perspective on the economy, especially regarding the political landscape. I would Love for you to have him on your show, as he is a strong libertarian/anarchist but has thought through concepts deeply and is willing to say “I don’t know”. Much like how you communicate that “trend-following” is much more than a trading strategy, he has taught that “permaculture” systems can be applied to all aspects of life, much more than just planting a garden.

Thanks for your valuable podcast and perspective.

[Name] in Pittsburgh, PA


Ep. 603: Frank Ostaseski Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Frank Ostaseski
Frank Ostaseski

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Frank Ostaseski has dedicated his life to helping others. He is co-founder of the Zen Hospice Project and founder of the Metta Institute. Frank is a Buddhist teacher, international lecturer and expert on the end-of-life experience. His work spans from helping the homeless to the wealthy to the young and to the elderly have an easier transition to the other side. Frank loves what he does because of how “real” the experience of death is. His new book is The Five Invitations: Discovering What Death Can Teach Us About Living Fully.

How did Frank begin helping people with the experience of death? It was not a linear path. Frank had experiences with death early on in his life with the passing of his parents. He later was introduced to the Buddhist practice with the central tenet of Buddhism being the study of constant change. When his son was born he felt it was important to “birth his soul”. He went to a program where everyone was grieving and learning about the loss of a soul. Frank on the other hand, wanted to learn how to gain a soul for his son. He didn’t find much help with that, however the leader of the program invited him back to see first hand what experiencing death was like. He later visited Central America working in refugee camps where he saw a lot of misery and death. He then went to San Francisco when the aids epidemic was running rampant on the streets. Each experience kept pulling him in a little more and more and every death he witnesses continues to show him how precious and precarious life is.

Frank’s five invitations, outlined in his book, have become his road map and guidelines for life: don’t wait, welcome everything and push away nothing, bring your whole self to the experience, find a place of rest in the middle of things, and cultivate don’t know mind.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The territory of mystery
  • The inevitability and intimacy of dying
  • How saying goodbye at a party relates to saying goodbye when dying
  • Importance of human connection
  • Don’t wait
  • The reality of constant change
  • Openness during the travel experience
  • Trusting our intuition
  • Common humanity
  • Resting in the middle of activity
  • Discovering the truth
  • Stoicism

“One of the most beautiful human qualities that we undervalue is our vulnerability.” – Frank Ostaseski

Mentions & Resources:

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“The words ‘Trend Following’ fascinate me so much…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I’m enjoying the reading of your new book Trend Following, 5th edition, as I did with the previous one which I’ve read many times and that is at the top of my personal trading/investing library of 100 books!

The words “Trend Following” fascinate me so much that I think to it from morning till night! I literally love this investing philosophy and I admire your passion, skill and knowledge on this subject.

Now I’ve published a little book that I wrote about investing and that condensate all my personal path: since the beginning in 2008 with intraday trading (3 minutes bars!), to passive index investing (which did not make any sense to my mind) and at last to Trend Following, which I appreciated since the beginning but that I was not able to adopt because of my personal bias and errors (that is, ignorance). Driven by curiosity I wanted to try other paths even if I was aware of the uncertainty of such a costly decision. When I finally I fully appreciated the power of Trend Following philosophy I decided to put it in writings so to have my personal “beacon” without being distracted by other types of approach to investing. With my little book I hope also to contribute divulge in my small way the superiority of this investing philosophy (there’s is also an Italian version on Amazon since last spring).

I would appreciate very much to know what you think about my little book. I can send you a PDF or a kindle version by mail.

Kind regards,
[Name], Italy

I will read it. Thanks!

Trading Food for Thought: November 2nd Edition

Food for thought:


“THANK YOU for your inspirational PODCASTS and BOOKS!”

Feedback in:


I hope you are well.

I just wanted you to know that I walk to keep fit listening to your Podcasts. Since I started lost loads of weight and been inspired! Thank you for the Chris Voss (FBI kidnap negotiator) interview – this was the most inspiring interview for me. I read his book and downloaded the audio. Use his techniques daily in my work. It works too!

On the trading front [name] book started me on the trend follow route which lead me to you. I note whilst you mention [name] – he is low key compared to the other Turtles. It would be great if you had an interview with him.

I have read your books and in the process of downloading the audio versions! They are awesome. Michael – THANK YOU for your inspirational PODCASTS and BOOKS!

With Kind Regards