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“My biggest challenge was getting over the mindset that trend following will work for me…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, G’Day from Down Under. Hope your day is going well. Thanks for the opportunity to send an email to you. My biggest challenge was getting over the mindset that trend following will work for me. Could I really be successful? Could I really do better than 8 years of fundamental analysis that has returned c. 13% PA trading stocks on the ASX? My former accountant, looked at my returns and proudly said, “You can’t beat the market”. This lit a fire in my belly. I know the answer is yes you can. Being based in Australia, I trade the ASX, because it is what I know (currently). My trend following training here includes Brent Penfold and Nick Radge, both of whom referred to your learnings and experience. I currently trade two trend following strategies, a monthly and a weekly, on the ASX. I am testing another. All of these are long only strategies. If the market is not trending up, then I am not interested in being in it, (I don’t have the capacity to go short anyhow). So, why am I interested in your book and services, Trend Following? To learn new approaches. To add another strategy to my portfolio of approaches. I saw with interest one of your podcast episodes was with Prof Anders Ericsson. I know of his work and have applied those concepts to other areas of my life. I am looking forward to applying the same mindset of improvement with deliberate practice to my trading in my trend following strategies. I’m grateful in this technology era to be able to tap into the wisdom/experience of those that would otherwise be out of reach. Thanks for taking some time to get to the end of my email. Much appreciated, Sean M.

Best of luck!

“My biggest challenge is finding the right combination of markets and time frames I have the margin to trade…”

Feedback in:

Looking back, the biggest challenge I faced was letting go of trying to build perfect systems. It took awhile to understand that the goal was to build good systems that generalize well and then apply them across many markets. Reading that concept wasn’t enough. I had to witness it. I coded up a version of the turtle rules in metatrader a ways back and then threw it away. Then, one day years later, I found it in an email attachment and ran a backtest. The lesson was in the profits I never allowed myself to realize. Looking forward, My biggest challenge is finding the right combination of markets and time frames I have the margin to trade.

More on software.

Trend Following White Papers

Third Party Trend Following Resources:

Jump into a trend following overload:

  • A Century of Evidence on Trend Following Investing (PDF)
  • Two Centuries of Trend Following (PDF).
  • On the Origins and Nature of Trend Following (WEB)
  • Speculation as a Fine Art: Dickson Watts (PDF)
  • Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay Volume 1; 1841 (PDF)
  • Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay Volume 1; 1852 (PDF)
  • Reminiscences of a Stock Operator; 1923 (PDF)
  • Efficient Market Theory: When will it die? (PDF)
  • Time series momentum (PDF)
  • Trend following and the MCM system: An interview with Paul Mulvaney (PDF)
  • Historical Performance of Trend Following (PDF)
  • The Psychology and Neuroscience of Financial Decision Making (PDF)
  • Economics Needs a Scientific Revolution (PDF)
  • Financial Market History (PDF)
  • The Loser’s Game (PDF)
  • Fifty Years in Wall Street (PDF)
  • Zero Sum Nature of Markets (PDF)
  • Trend Following Risk & Return (PDF)
  • David Hsieh & William Fung: Theory and Evidence (PDF)
  • A Tail of Two Worlds: Fat Tails and Investing (PDF)
  • Too Big to Fail: Long-Term Capital Management (PDF)
  • Bet Sizing: Ed Seykota and David Druz (PDF)
  • Gibbons Burke on Money Management (PDF)
  • Frequency v. Magnitude (PDF)
  • Kelly Original Paper March 21, 1956 (PDF)
  • Decision-Making (PDF)
  • History of U.S. Bear & Bull Markets Since 1926 (PDF)
  • Making Money From Mathematical Models (PDF)
  • Run Profits, Cut Losses (PDF)

Ep. 1012: Talya Miron-Shatz Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Talya Miron-Shatz
Talya Miron-Shatz

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

In recent years, we have gained unprecedented control over choices about our health. But these choices are hard and often full of psychological traps. As a result, we’re liable to misuse medication, fall for pseudoscientific cure-alls, and undergo needless procedures.

Talya Miron-Shatz explores the preventable ways we make bad choices about everything from nutrition to medication, from pregnancy to end-of-life care. She reveals how the medical system can set us up for success or failure and maps a model for better doctor-patient relationships.

Full of new insights and actionable guidance, Miron-Shatz is a guide to making good choices when you can’t afford to make a bad one.

Bio: Talya Miron-Shatz, PhD., is a leader in research at the intersection of medicine and behavioral economics. She is professor and founding Director of the Center for Medical Decision Making at Ono Academic College in Israel, senior fellow at the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest in New York, and a visiting researcher at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Vaccination and Public Trust
  • COVID-19 Vaccination
  • Wearing Masks Against COVID-19
  • Delta Variant
  • Treatment for Obesity
  • Israel’s COVID-19 Vaccination
  • Coronavirus Disease Statistics
  • Risk Factors for COVID-19
  • HIV and COVID-19
  • Medical Decision Making

Mentions & Resources:

“I feel a little late to the game but I am a believer…”

Feedback in:

I feel a little late to the game but I am a believer in that we are all lead to water, the timing of which we tend to drink it, is when we get the fill we need.

I purchased your book about 3 years ago and just now that I am 40 years old and have a baby that I am really studying this theory of Trend Following.

I am just an ordinary individual, but I have a passion for numbers. I graduated from a small college with a BA in Finance and am familiar with trading, but it is now that I truly want to dive into this and better myself and make educated decisions trading for my family to have a better life.

I hope you do read this email. One day maybe I will be an example in one of your books.

Just keep going. Anyone can do it. The story of the TurtleTraders.

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