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What is talent? One reader debates…

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

I am a fan of yours. Two of your books are on my shelf. I also spent 2 years working through [name] home study course. I also understand the turtle trading system. I have spent well over 10,000 hours studying charts in search of my own financial holy grail. I am a professional musician who has been unsuccessful at producing consistent profits via trading/investing for over 30 years.

The recently completed test of the “10,000 hour” theory by [name] ([name] attempted to make the PGA tour by practicing golf for 10,000 hours – he failed) is further confirmation to me that Talent is an essential ingredient to success in any field. EVERYONE in my field understands that there are some skills which are part of individual when they are born. People like Itzak Perlman, Buddy Rich, Nolan Ryan, Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods are very special individuals. The average person could spend 1 million hours trying to model any one of those people and they would not come close to getting the same results.

[name] runs a program for people who wish to excel in trading. He calls it his [name] Program. I wish he would publish the overall results of all those participants in an honest objective way (and maybe he has). My guess is that all of his clients improve their skills, but I would guess at least a percentage of them can not truly be considered “[name].”

Trend following is indeed ONE WAY to generate consistent profits but only in the hands of a person who has spent considerable time with research and practice IN ADDITION to having natural abilities for the tasks involved.

I guess the reason I am writing is because I’d like to see more openness about the challenges in the field of trading/investing. Many people like you do a great job in helping people find a safe road through the minefield of putting money at risk. At the same time, can we please, please acknowledge that the people who achieve outstanding results are naturally gifted. Yes, rank and file individuals can improve whatever skills they have. I have learned a great deal about how to NOT LOSE MONEY in the course on my studies. That alone has helped me accumulate wealth. But let’s be sure people understand that they must work within their own skill sets. Not everyone is cut out to make the Olympics. Not everyone has what it takes to make the PGA tour. Not everyone has the skills that you have, Michael.

The Nature vs. Nurture debate is a ridiculous discussion. Look at the Turtles; look at Dan [name]; and read about all the other studies on the topic. I guarantee each case will show that hard work definitely improves performance. On the journey toward peak performance people who understand themselves will end up having the most success (happiness and satisfaction) in life.

Most Sincerely,
[name]
[name], Phoenix Symphony Orchestra

Thanks for the thoughtful feedback.

My response.

And his book.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 809: Melanie Katzman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Melanie Katzman
Melanie Katzman

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My guest today is Melanie Katzman, PhD, a business psychologist, advisor, and consultant to the world’s top public and private companies, as well as governmental and nonprofit institutions. As the founder of Katzman Consulting, she is a sought-after expert in executive development, group dynamics, and leadership diversity, and has worked with businesses―including Accenture, Bain Consulting, Goldman Sachs, MTV, PwC, and Viacom―in 31 countries.

The topic is her book Connect First: 52 Simple Ways to Ignite Success, Meaning, and Joy at Work.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Establish respect and make others feel valued
  • Engage all of your senses to create a truly inclusive culture
  • Become popular and be the person everyone wants to work with
  • Grow loyalty by making it about them―your coworkers
  • Resolve conflicts by remaining curious and open with others
  • Fight fear (and prepare for the future) by stepping outside your comfort zone and experimenting with new ideas
  • Have a big impact by leveraging your platform, living your values, and leading the change

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“I don’t want to hold a position for a long time…”

Feedback in:

Michael,

Thank you so much for your work. In addition to your mini course, I am so reading Trend Following. The biggest thing I am seeing so far is the distance between what I think I know because I have an intellectual understanding of it and the actions I actually take (or not). I am excited to get better at probabilistic thinking and applying it to all areas of life.

Best,

K.

Thanks!

More feedback:

[My challenge] is whether to focus on currencies or stocks. Personally I don’t want to hold a position for a long time.

Regards,
Yusuf

You will probably fail with that plan. Sorry for the bad news.

Read up.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“As you can imagine reading these articles was a bit disheartening for me…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I am a huge fan of yours. I own all of your books and just finished reading the fifth edition of Trend Following. I also listen to your podcast daily and love all of your guests and the topics you cover. I have been fascinated with trading since I was 18. In fact, I saved up $10,000 bussing tables when I was 18 and opened up a Scottrade account. I would eventually lose all of the money as I got eaten alive by transaction costs and poor risk management. I haven’t traded a live account since then because “life” happened. I got a real job as a mortgage broker when I turned 20 and entered the rat race. I am 33 now and am about to have my 3rd child in the next few weeks. The mortgage industry has been good to me as I have been a top 1% mortgage broker in the country since my mid 20’s and make 7 figures a year. My wife is a Realtor and runs one of the top 100 RE/MAX teams in the country. We have built a wonderful life together and we have so much to be thankful for. With this said, I want nothing more than to start a career in trading. It is what I am most passionate about and I know that I will always regret not taking the leap if I don’t do it soon.

The beautiful thing about Trend Following is that it doesn’t require me to be glued to my screen all day. I can just spend 30 minutes or so in the morning, set/adjust my trades, and then head to work. I am very close to finally purchasing your flagship product and starting to trade.

Just yesterday I finished reading Larry Hite’s new book, “The Rule”, and between that and your book, I was interested in doing my own research on David Harding as he seems to be the new face of Trend Following. I was shocked to see that within the last year, he has shifted his trading philosophy away from trend following as he feels the space is too crowded.

As you can imagine, reading these articles was a bit disheartening for me. This combined with page 420 of your book where it covers the recent plateau in the performance of the trend make me wonder if I am late to the game. What are your thoughts on this? Is it just one of those times like we have seen in the past where people give up on the strategy just before it goes on a run or do you think there is some legitimate concern here? With all of the new players in the game with tons of money and computers, can the little guy even compete? Or is being the little guy actually an advantage since the size I will be trading will make me much more nimble and since I don’t have to appease investors, I can trade the optimum volatility necessary to achieve the highest absolute returns? Do you think that some of these CTA’s maybe have had to water down the risk/volatility so much in order to attract new money into the funds that they in effect removed the edge from their system?

Thank your for your time and thanks again for all you have done and all that you continue to do in regards to educating people about Trend Following.

Thanks,
Grant S.

Are you asking if trend following is dead?

I don’t see how with known evidence, especially the totality of my TF book, that can be deduced. The last thing that makes any sense is a headline war—hence why my book(s) are the best rebuttal to headlines. It’s not a subject that one man or one firm or one headline can kill. A wise thought? Look at trend following as one issue and the observation of how funds run their biz/raise assets as another.

This is all discussed on my recent podcast:


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“My biggest challenge was to understand when stay out of the market…”

Feedback in:

Hi, I’m a novice future trader, I’ve been trading (with a small capital 12k to 5k) from January ’19. In October I’m profitable (100$ to 350$ daily). My biggest challenge was to understand when stay out of the market, with other word when market is moving too fast for my stop or too slow without a direction. I trade most mini SP 500 (ES) typically I enter in the market when i see the begin of a strong movement and I stay in position with 1 contract for some minutes (2 to 10 minutes) or more with trailing stop if trend continues.

Have a good trading day,
Luca T.

Minutes trading? Most likely you will lose all of your money very fast.

You need a new plan ASAP.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 808: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

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My guest today is Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe). DUNN Capital (Europe) is a Swiss entity with which DUNN has an exclusive consulting agreement to perform business development for DUNN’s programs in Europe. Niels has been in the managed futures business since 1990, holding management positions at several leading CTAs: GNI Fund Management, Chesapeake, Beach Capital and Rho Asset Management, the last two of which he co-founded. He is the founder and host of the podcast Top Traders Unplugged.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss

  • Top Traders Unplugged

Mentions & Resources:

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“While this trend following boat is sailing without me…”

Feedback in…

Michael:

I’ve been in contact with you before through email and always look forward to your podcasts along with those 20-30 minute comments segments. I haven’t listened to Tony Robbins in 20-25 years, but they seem to echo the same tone. Love it.

BTW, I’m the guy who sent you a PDF of my trend following system across about 45 assets about a year ago. I’m a federal employee and feel that I’m moments away from handing in my resignation letter. After about a year of constantly thinking about leaving my job every 10 minutes and waking up in the middle of the night feeling trapped in my position, I’ve come to realize that my big “hang-up” is whether or not to sell my home for additional trading capital to top-off my business, or rent it out for future guaranteed monthly payment through a property manager.

I know you can’t offer financial advise, and I’d never hold you to anything, however I’d like to ask a question: When you moved out of the US, did you leave any property behind? Or, did you just “bug-out” (as you’ve once noted) and leave for the Asian country with minimal possessions in tow?

If you wish to not answer this, that’s no problem. I respect that. Could you reply with: “Pass”. If you’d like to reply, any thoughts would be appreciated.

My trend following platform (stuck in simulation mode) is kicking ass without me hitting new highs after an absolutely gorgeous 30% drawdown, and time is wasting.

While this trend following boat is sailing without me, as I ponder to swim after it, I can’t tell if I’m diving into the English Channel, staring off the edge of a rocky cliff, jumping out of a plane, hitting an eject button, on a capsule set for a no-return trip to Mars or digging my own grave. It’s fu@%in’ scary.

Best,
Kyle

All in your mind. Go read this for a few hours!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.