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Please enjoy my monologue The Great Reset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
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My guest today is Alexandra Carter, a Clinical Professor of Law and Director of the Mediation Clinic at Columbia Law School, where she has spent over a decade helping thousands of people improve their negotiation skills. She is a world-renowned negotiation trainer for the United Nations, where she has taught dozens of negotiation workshops to hundreds of diplomats from more than eighty nations.
The topic is her book Ask for More: 10 Questions to Negotiate Anything.
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Hi,
Firstly, thank you for your site, and all the knowledge and insight it gives.
Your question is what is the biggest challenge, which I think is quite a hard question to answer as a new trader. A single answer would never be able to capture the complexity of the question
5 years ago I embarked on a journey to build a fully automated black box system; whilst I hope to have the skills as a 20yr+ computer specialist, understanding how to apply this to a trading model that could reliably create returns is the real challenge. I have devoted hours of learning, research and trial and error often going down routes that in theory should work but actually deliver no results.
Until recently my system hasn’t been able to deliver consistent results but I have persevered to learn more and to try new things. I have tried unsuccessfully to apply indicators to systematic trading including adding neural networks to aid predictions. Some of these have been based on strategies that I have found online and some derived from my own thoughts.
I have built my own trend prediction module that attempts to understand the major trend, to understand when a correction is happening and to gauge the strength of the trend. I had hoped this would have been the missing piece of the puzzle but alas it wasn’t – at least not on it’s own.
The last few months, as I take some time away from a 9-5 job to work closely on the system, it has started to deliver some much better returns. I have really started to understand about Risk and Money management – things that have been implemented from the start and have grown with the system but until now I haven’t probably fully understood.
Simple quotes like “Cut your losses and let winners run” I have but recently only fully understood. At a high level these quotes seem rather obvious but implementing are rather more cumbersome, and that take something rather trivial to something much more
So to round up and actually answer your question; I think the biggest challenge in trading is to turn something complicated into something simple. Trading is inherently a complex beast, but as the age-old saying goes in computer systems at least, we cannot solve complex problems and instead seek to break down large problems to smaller problems that are easier to solve. My answer is meant to reflect both implementation and to theory.
The strategy that I am using now is rather simplistic and just attempts to jump on a trend and ride it out. It doesn’t seek to open trades at the beginning of a trend, but does attempt to follow the trend as long as a trend is prevalent. I realize now that the opening trade is perhaps less important as to the position size and what one does with trade in regards to moving stoploss and take profits. And thus, I now have a system that is almost working. A system, that as you quote on your website could potentially trade anything due to price action and not knowing about fundamentals or other intrinsic elements about the market.
I had found your site a few years ago, but, to quantify again my learning, back then I didn’t really understand it. Now, armed with a bit more knowledge, I read your site and realize – hey, this is the direction I had already taken of recent – whether on my own or sub-consciously of all the readings in the past.
I’m sure I still have a long way to go, although being close. If I were to try and quantity “close” then I don’t know if close means I’m days or still years away but will keep running on a paper account until I can have at least enough confidence. During this time and after, I look forward to reading your mailings and continuing to learn, so I close by saying thank you for sharing
Tom
But none of that sounds simple. All of it sounds overly complicated…
I still recall a classic quote from a classic trend follower: “Everything we do we could do on the back of an envelope with a pencil.”
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
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I would like to start with I am trying to program my strategy to be systematic. When you did your talk with Jim just the other day, I asked you, “did you have a programmer you could refer to me?” My conclusion from what you said is I need to learn C++. as I do not think you can trade C Sharp on MT4. I trade the Forex and have been relatively successful. I have been using the 1-hour chart to determine the overall trend for the 15 min chart. I have been thinking that maybe I should use the 30 min chart or some other indicator for an overall trend. So I would like to know what you use if anything for your overall trend. But the big elephant in the room today is since December I have been traded well, but in the last 3 and a half weeks the market has not gone my way. I have not been able to figure out what is different. I know that you and Jim both talk a lot about the different markets and that you cannot always trade the same for each market. I have to figure out how to know what the different markets are and when they change so that I can adjust how I trade. If you could give me some insight here that would be very helpful. My goal is to be totally systematic within the year. I fully understand that being systematic does not mean I do nothing. I have so many ideas that I would like to pursue trading, but it is hard to have the time to do the work testing the ideas and trade the one the seams to be working.
Thank you for your time and consideration.
D. H.
You seek to code an hourly bar system? I would stop that. Stop the day trading. More.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
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Hi Michael:
I have just finished your first episode on your podcast I realize it’s now 8 years old but I’ve just discovered it at the end of your episode you said to send an email and you will send the trend following steps and a video. Thanks for the work you have done with the pod.
Welcome!
After hearing Larry Hite–he rang very loudly to me. His overall method/strategy sounded very appealing. I am 43-years old am a sports commentator in Australia who due to a poor investment I am back to square one. In your view does your course supply me with enough content to get started in this field and build on my skill from there. In other words where is the course designed to have you situated at the end of 18 months.
Cheers,
B. Y.
You will be a trend following trader. Ready to go. Full understanding. Full systems. In a position to profit, but you will get there much sooner than 18 months.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes
My guest today is Peter Linneman, the principal of Linneman Associates, the CEO and founder of American Land Fund and of KL Realty. He previously served as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, retiring in December 2010. Linneman served as the founding chairman of Wharton’s Real Estate Department, and was the Director of Wharton’s Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center for 13 years. He is also the founding co-editor of the Wharton Real Estate Review. Linneman has also been named one of the 100 Most Powerful People in New York real estate according to The New York Observer and one of the 25 most influential people in commercial real estate by Realtor Magazine.
The topic is COVID-19 economic impact.
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My biggest challenge is accepting that price is the score, both in terms of entry and exits. Being an accountant I stereotypically began my investment journey as a value guy (Joel Greenblatt’s Magic formula), did ok, some wins some loses, but what held me back was missing a lot of entries on winners I had identified but not executed on (anchoring bias stopped me paying for something up say ~1-5% even though they would go on to become big wins) combined with on the other side holding too many only ok stocks (not losers but not winners either, but opportunity cost hit me). I don’t see myself as a TA guy (for lots of different reasons) but having recently discovered momentum/trending in the past year, my retrospective analysis showed me that my performance would have been better if I had combined price momentum with my investment approach. I am keen to learn more but it’s already helped me with the recent turbulence, getting out in February and not rushing to catch a falling knife. Still more challenges ahead and looking forward to improving… P.S. thanks for your books and podcasts
Keep learning. Keep avoiding traditional technical analysis.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.