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“Pimping Risk”

This article and excerpt caught my eye

“The [mutual fund] industry sets targets that are far too high and then says, ‘Gee let us help you hit that target — put your money in stocks,'” he says. “It is true that the probability of making your target will go up, but the probability of having a really bad outcome — like losing your principal — will also go up, and so will the fees charged for management.”

Its never about just putting your money in any asset “long only”. Once you decide on the asset class you need a plan for buying and selling before you ever lay one dollar on the table at risk.

Turtle Tom Shanks on “Boots”

I received an email from Turtle Tom Shanks today that adds more “color” to the story:

This is mainly a clarification of the fourth paragraph on page 33, beginning “Shanks and Svoboda . . .”. This is a fuller account, to the best of my recollection, that you may use any way you see fit:

I first met George [Svoboda] in San Francisco, through Blair Hull. George had a brilliant way of getting right to the core principles of any subject he approached, and he was investigating trading at the time. He quickly learned of Blair’s prominence in the field and flew to San Francisco to meet with him. I was working for Blair (had met him through Blackjack), and Blair knew that George had an extensive blackjack background as well. Since we all had that in common, Blair invited me to join them for lunch. I don’t remember much about that meeting, but a couple of months later Blair sent me to Chicago to research sources of commodity price data that he could add to his Options Research service. During that trip, I ran into a friend of mine named Ron Cohn, whom I had known in San Francisco. I had no idea Ron was working in Chicago; he walked into an office I was in to drop off some keys at the end of a project he was doing for the company, we recognized each other and decided to have dinner that night. I knew George was in Chicago doing more research and I didn’t think he knew anyone socially there so I called George and invited him to join us. We went to a Greek restaurant, I remember, and during the catch-up conversation, I learned that Ron had applied to the first C&D ad that had run the year before, which is the first time either George or I had heard of that opportunity. I returned to San Francisco, looked up the ad in the file of old WSJs we kept, procrastinated for a while and finally applied. After I got the application package, I phoned George to discuss it. In his inimitable way he had cut right to the heart of the matter and told me that he had gone to the library to research RJD to get an idea of how Richard might like to have the questions and essays in the application answered. I thought that was a great idea and did the same in SF. There were 20 interviews granted that year, two a day for two weeks. George and I were scheduled on the same day, he in the morning and I in the afternoon. The rest, as they say…Hope you are well. Best, Tom

PS: In the next paragraph, there is a reference to Dingo boots. There never were any Dingo boots. The boots we used were all made by hand by a Mexican shoemaker in San Francisco. The essence is correct, however: I was tired of boots.

Thanks Tom.

Richard Dennis: Prince of the Pit

The father of the Turtles Richard Dennis was very wise even back in the day. From an article circa 1976 wholly relevant to today.


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Larry Hite: Life is a Bet

A comment from trader Larry Hite:

“Life is nothing more than a series of bets and bets are really nothing more than questions and their answers. There is no real difference between, “Should I take another hit on this Blackjack hand?” and “Should I get out of the way of that speeding and wildly careening bus?” Each shares two universal truths: a set of probabilities of potential outcomes and the singular outcome that takes place. Everyday we place hundreds if not thousands of bets – large and small, some seemingly well considered and others made without a second thought. The vast majority of the latter, life’s little gambles made without any thought, might certainly be trivial. “Should I tie my shoes?” Seems to offer no big risk, nor any big reward. While others, such as the aforementioned – speeding and wildly careening bus – would seem to have greater impact on our lives. However, if deciding not to tie your shoes that morning causes you to trip and fall down in the middle of the road when you finally decide to fold your hand and give that careening bus plenty of leeway, well then, in hindsight the trivial has suddenly become paramount.”

More.