Please enjoy my monologue Engineering the Fundamentals with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Fundamentals
Valeant vs. Enron
The Deep State
Fixing the media
Trading off price
“You have to fight back with intelligence. You have to fight back with smarts. You have to fight back with a good strategy. You can’t just sit there and accept what the system gives you because the system is going to give you exactly what it wants to give you.” – Michael Covel
Not that I would expend an ounce of energy to defend any NY-based hedge fund (says the Chicago CTA), but as if this has just been a typical period since Mar ’09 “No more than 23% of active managers in any segment of the U.S. equities market outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 5 years” practically brings tears to my eyes – in laughter. And also hope. Hope that we are close to the next “unforeseen sequence of events” typically favorable for our preferred style of trading.
My guests today are Daehee Park and JT Marino. They are the owners and founders of Tuft and Needle, a modern mattress company. They met during college at Penn State, parted ways after college and then met back up in Silicon Valley at a startup tech company.
The topic is entrepreneur.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Marketing a company
Growing a startup
Product development
Importance of customer service
Creating art
Simplification of products
Venture capital
“If you took all of the suggestions and feedback that people give you, you would end up with a Frankenstein of a product.” – Daehee Park and JT Marino
I am the guy who was a member years ago, then recently renewed. I was hounding you in regards to the TradeStation systems that you built. I was also the guy who has been doing yoga, but only with YouTube videos. I used the funds that I won from the super bowl boxes for private lessons at a studio. It was fantastic. My practice grew exponentially. Unfortunately Spring Break with the family came right after the private lessons and I have regressed. I started up again recently, but again only at home. The studio that I like has classes that do not match with my schedule at this time. I enjoy yoga, but my practice is not where I would like. I will need to change my schedule to get my practice to grow. As far as trading goes. I have been watching my portfolio of symbols using a charting software. I haven’t been able to get involved with Trade Station. My wife and I have been having some life changing discussions about our finances. She is starting to come round to understand Trend Following, but so far I haven’t been a good salesmen. I have been listening to your podcasts, and love them. I hadn’t used my phone to listen to them before and now I can’t wait for my commute! I look forward to seeing the notification that you have a new podcast available. I finally figured out how to download older episodes so I will have days of the podcast to listen to. Have you ever had Josh Brown on? One of the podcast that I recently listened to you read an article of Josh’s that was fantastic. It was about everyone being a technical trader. If you haven’t had him on, that would be one for the not miss category. I also loved the stuff that you have done recently with basketball. The part about the Celtics coach and the audio of Gregg Popovich was filled with some great nuggets. I guess this is a long (very long) winded way of saying thanks. I appreciate all the material that you have out there for your students and for all. Someday I will pull the trigger for the TS code. I see that as my only way because of my business.
Thanks again,
[Name]
Thanks.
Josh is a busy guy, but he knows I welcome him any time.
I finished up listening to your podcast with Mike Lofgren on “The Deep State” and felt the urge to just thank you for a very interesting, informative, provocative, but essential discussion. Ironically, the issues you discussed are standard dinner table topics for me and my family (I’d consider ourselves different from the norm in a good way). Unfortunately, today’s farrago of reality TV shows, sports, and social issues have become red herrings to the more important topics. Why discuss the vexing and complicated issues when we can just talk about the Kardashians or whether bathrooms should be genderless?… At any rate, look forward to more discussions on your podcast.
PS: I have also been working in investments for a couple years but would could consider myself a “new” trader. At the end of your podcast you mentioned you’d send some trend following steps. I currently use a nuanced Tom Demark Indicator system, but I’m always open to learning something new.
Please enjoy my monologue Making Money Every Month Is Fantasy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Long Term Capital Management
Bernie Madoff
Leverage
Diversification
Indian Stock Market
“Leverage doesn’t matter in this case. Such consistency with low drawdowns goes against nature and cannot exist if it trades long enough.” Michael Melissinos
The following story passed along from an associate is “pure Seykota”:
“I attended a day-long seminar in February 1995 in Toronto, Canada where Seykota was one of the guest speakers. The WHOLE audience peppered Seykota with questions like: Do you like gold, where do you think the Canadian $ is headed, how do you know when there is a top, how do you know when the trend is up etc.? To each of these, he replied: ‘I like gold—it’s shiny, pretty—makes nice jewelry’ or ‘I have no idea where the Canadian dollar is headed or the trend is up when price is moving up, etc.’ His replies were simple, straight-forward answers to the questions asked of him. Later, I learned through the event organizer that a large majority of the audience (who paid good money, presumably to learn the ‘secrets’ of trading from a market wizard) were not impressed. Many felt they had wasted their time and money listening to Seykota. Seykota’s message couldn’t be clearer to anyone who cared to listen. The answers were found in the very questions each person asked. Don’t ask, ‘How do you know the trend is moving up?’ Instead, ask, ‘What is going to tell me the trend is up?’ Not, ‘What do you think of gold?’ Instead, ask, ‘Am I correctly trading gold?’ Seykota’s answers effectively placed everyone in front of a huge mirror, reflecting their trading self back at them. If you don’t even know the question to ask about trading, much less the answers, get out of the business and spend your life doing something you enjoy.”
How would you have reacted to Seykota’s speech? Walk out or be curious? Think about it.
Feedback in:
I wanted to reach out and thank you for the books you have written. I will admit I’ve read them all from obtaining them through the library system, but I now believe I will buy them as resources to reference. The “Trend Following” philosophy clicked immediately with me and listening to your podcast has really enlightened my mind considering I’ve been typically listening to Motley Fool for my job as a Financial Analyst. In a short period of time I feel I can see through the garbage that is filling those podcasts. I still listen to keep up with my CFO, but feel as if I’m a lone wolf at work with a strategy that none of them could ever understand. Within weeks of reading on Ed Seykota I have already programmed an entire Google Doc to automate my buy/sell/risk/data pull just by typing a ticker for what I want to trade. Kudos to you for following this path and providing the knowledge to us for consumption. I hope to continue to follow your path as you continue. If you are ever in Colorado feel free to check-in with me and see whether I’ve hit life changing levels yet.
